Burundi: Not yet out of the woods

BUJUMBURA, 11 December 2008 (IRIN) - The agreement by Burundi's last rebel group to change an unconstitutional ethnic reference in its name and move its forces into assembly sites takes the country significantly closer to peace but still leaves much to be done, according to analysts.

At a summit meeting in Burundi's capital on 4 December, the Forces nationales de liberation (FNL) finally dropped its insistence that its political wing, Palipehutu, a contraction of the French words for the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People, retain the term "Hutu" in its name, in line with a constitutional ban on such terminology.

At the same summit, President Pierre Nkurunziza agreed to give government jobs to 33 senior FNL members and to release political detainees and prisoners of war, on the understanding that the latter immediately make their way to assembly sites.

The FNL and the government signed a ceasefire in September 2006, but have made only fitful progress towards a formal end to the rebellion.

Regional pressure

"It looks like a big breakthrough," said Paul-Simon Handy, head of the Africa security analysis programme in the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies, "but it has to be translated into concrete political and military steps such as the socio-economic integration of FNL troops."

Handy attributed the FNL's somewhat sudden climb-down to renewed pressure from countries in the Great Lakes region, which have grown increasingly frustrated with the negative impact on trade caused by Burundi's failure to consolidate peace.

"Regional pressure has increased over the last month and the FNL has not been getting as many arms as a result of war fatigue," he said.

"Also, the political crisis in Burundi might have been an incentive for the FNL to integrate now, rather than when the government is stronger," added Handy, noting the country was due to hold elections in 2010.

Efficiency concerns

The summit's final communiqué did not explain what jobs would be given to the 33 senior rebels, but Handy suggested that Nkurunziza was counting on the international community to foot at least part of the bill - "the price to pay for a cessation of hostilities".

Burundian political analyst and university lecturer Gaspard Nduwayo told IRIN the pressure applied upon the FNL to clinch the deal was a cause for concern.

The deal was imposed on the FNL, which had no option but to accept, he said in Bujumbura. "What this means is that the government has now won legitimacy to fight the FNL if it does not abide by the deal."

He added that the government had two options regarding the 33 posts: create jobs or dismiss people already in office as a result of previous power-sharing negotiations.

"In either case, the aim would be the distribution of posts rather than [administrative] efficiency," he added.

Onésime Nduwimana, spokesman for the ruling Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie-Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD)? itself a Hutu rebel group turned political party ? played down the risk of alienating any of the president's political beneficiaries.

"No senior member of the CNDD-FDD is worried because of those posts," he said.

That was missing the point, according to one employee of an international NGO, who asked not to be named.

"Whether the government creates new posts or dismisses some senior government officials to leave room for the FNL, the result is the same, the embezzlement of funds," he said.

Many Burundians are impatient for a final conclusion to the country's peace process.

"I hope this time it is the real thing; we have suffered enough in this country," Bujumbura resident Manasé Manirakiza told IRIN.

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