Fresh Saudi Arrests Illustrate Evolving Jihadist Threat

A Saudi interior ministry spokesman said on April 24 that a recently arrested 23-year-old Saudi man, Yazied Muhammad Abdul Rahman Abu Nayan, had confessed to taking part in the killing of two policemen on behalf of the Islamic State (Saudi Press Agency, April 24). The policemen were shot and killed in a drive-by shooting in an eastern part of the capital Riyadh (al-Jazeera, April 24). The government has offered a 1 million riyal ($267,000) reward for information leading to the arrest of the second suspect, Nawaf bin Sharif Samir al-Enezi, who drove the car. The government said that the suspect was arrested at a farm in Huraimela district, to the north of Riyadh, where three cars were in the process of being converted into car bombs (al-Sharq al-Awsat, April 25). The government said that the police were continuing to search for the rest of the group, and added that the group's key contact with the Islamic State was a man with a Moroccan accent.

A few days later, on April 28, the government announced the recent arrest of a further 93 individuals suspected of terrorist activity. A number of the individuals were said to have formed a group called "Jund Bilad al-Haramain" (Soldiers of the Land of the Two Holy Places- i.e., Saudi Arabia), which they said was connected to the Islamic State (Saudi Arabian Ministry of Interior, April 28). This group, which was previously unknown, is alleged by the government to have organized itself into cells, with roles assigned to individuals or sub-groups tasked with manufacturing explosives, issuing fatwa-s and managing the group's finances. Further underlying the rapidly evolving threat, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Interior has also added a number of high-profile Saudi members of the Islamic State and affiliated groups to its most-wanted list. These include Anas bin Ali bin Abdul Aziz al-Nashwan, a hardline Wahhabi theologian, who appeared in a recent video by the Islamic State's Libyan affiliate that showed the execution of 28 Christian Ethiopians. (Arab News, April 27; Militant Leadership Monitor, April). The ministry has said that, since 2011, an estimated 2,275 citizens had gone to Syria to join jihadist groups, 500 of whom are believed to have returned so far (al-Ahram [Cairo], April 16). Previously in April, the interior ministry had warned of a possible attack on a mall or on oil installations (Arab News, April 21).

The latest arrests underline that Saudi Arabia faces significant long-term challenges from those inspired by the Islamic State's ideology and also from individuals directly connected to the group and acting on its orders. Indeed, the police report of car bombs being constructed suggests that Saudi militants, confined in recent years to one-off shootings, may now be seeking to carry out more ambitious attacks. In addition, the apparent emergence of the alleged "Jund Bilad al-Haramain" group suggests surprisingly high levels of organization by Saudi-based militants, which is again suggestive of domestic militants' increasing ambitions. However, while the possibility of further jihadist attacks in the country are very real, the Saudi religious establishment-unlike in the 1990s and early 2000s-remains firmly behind the monarchy, and the domestic security services are far more capable and sophisticated than before. In addition-largely as a result of constant government propaganda through the media and religious institutions-there is a far better understanding in Saudi society of the dangers that unrestrained, non-governmental takfirism can pose to the country's stability. At the same time, however, as the latest arrests indicate, both Saudi Arabia itself, and various Western-linked targets within the country, are likely to remain attractive targets for jihadists for the foreseeable future.

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