Azerbaijan: President presses generational change within governing party

Rovshan Ismayilov 4/10/07

A series of startling developments concerning Azerbaijan's governing party indicate that President Ilham Aliyev is solidifying his hold over the South Caucasus country's government.

The first sign that all was not calm within the governing Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP) came on March 15, when Sirus Tebrizli, a founding member of YAP and its deputy chairman, made highly charged public comments, in which he called for the exposure of "traitors in the ruling party."

"These people [traitors] had always surrounded [former president] Heidar Aliyev and now they keep providing Ilham Aliyev with false information about the situation in Azerbaijan," Tebrizli said. He even named the head of the presidential administration, Ramiz Mekhdiyev, as the "leader of the traitors' group." The outburst prompted an emergency session of YAP's Political Council on March 27, during which Tebrizli was expelled from the party for violating party rules, according to a report distributed by the APA news agency.

On March 16, a fight erupted in parliament after MP Husein Abdullayev, who ostensibly was a pro-government legislator, began vehemently denouncing the government's performance. When Abdullayev refused to heed the parliament speaker's command to be silent, another MP, Fazail Agamli, acted to physically restrain the renegade legislator. Abdullayev, who is reputedly one of the richest oligarchs in Azerbaijan, promptly sent Agamli sprawling. Three days later, Abdullayev was arrested and stripped of his parliamentary immunity.

Meanwhile, President Aliyev's image has taken a hit during the ongoing trial of Ali Insanov, a former health minister and founder of the YAP who was arrested on corruption charges in 2005 shortly before the country's parliamentary elections. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Throughout the trial, Insanov has accused Aliyev of wrong-doing. Making a closing statement on April 10, Insanov claimed that Ilham Aliyev had "abducted power," adding that the younger Aliyev had been improperly appointed prime minister, putting him in line to succeed his father, Heidar, who was comatose at the time and could not sign the appropriate executive order. Insanov also hinted that the incumbent president was corrupt, and used illicit earnings to purchase a vacation home in Miami, the Russian news agency Regnum reported. A top YAP official and Aliyev loyalist, Ali Ahmedov, dismissed Insanov's accusation as "gibberish," the Turan news agency reported.

A March 25 report in the opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat claimed that Jalal Aliyev – the president's uncle and an arch-conservative MP – wanted to split with YAP and establish his own political party. The new party, Yeni Musavat speculated, would attract members of the governing elite who have grown disenchanted with President Aliyev's leadership style, including Tebrizli, Abdullayev and others. Jalal Aliyev, in March 28 comments distributed by the Turan news agency, vigorously denied the Yeni Musavat report as "absolutely groundless."

Some independent political analysts suggest that recent developments are part of a plan, implemented by the president, to replace the governing party's old guard with younger officials whose policy views are more in line with his own. Alesker Mammadli, a political expert and lawyer, suggested that, after three-plus years at the helm in Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev has consolidated power to a sufficient degree that he now feels he can push his father's loyalists from power.

"People like Tebrizli, Insanov or Abdullayev were confident that the president needed them. However, Ilham Aliyev does not want such dependency, and is substituting them with the people personally devoted to him," Mammadli said.

A commentary distributed March 31 by the Today.az website attributed the latest events to "nothing more than a generational shift within the ruling party."

"Those who expected radical cadre changes from President Ilham Aliyev upon his election to the presidency in 2003 were disappointed with the slow pace of reforms," the commentary continued. "President Aliyev let the passage of time, and a regular political process in the country, shape his cadre policy."

Mammadli indicated that it was unlikely that Ilham Aliyev's would face serious opposition from within the ruling elite in the near future, explaining that all of the president's most dangerous potential rivals for power had been removed, including Insanov, Abdullayev and former economic development minister Farhad Aliyev, who was arrested in 2005 on treason charges. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"[Former president] Heidar Aliyev never had bright and strong personalities in his team and these people are not able to become serious political leaders in Azerbaijan now," Mammadli said. "The most dangerous ones – Farhad Aliyev, Ali Insanov and Husein Abdullayev – are imprisoned. The majority of others, while having lost political power, will do their best to keep at least their freedom and their capital."

Ilgar Mammadov, an independent Baku-based political analyst, believes that even if a schism occurred within the YAP, the anti-presidential faction would be hard-pressed to attract enough support so that it could mount a serious challenge to Aliyev's authority. "The only person who has ‘YAP roots' but who theoretically could become an ‘agent of change' is Farhad Aliyev. But he is in prison," Mammadov said.

Editor's Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance reporter based in Baku.

Posted April 10, 2007 © Eurasianet