Guinea: Political players differ over further election delays

CONAKRY, 5 December 2008 (IRIN) - As discussions continue over when to hold Guinea's repeatedly-postponed legislative elections, opinion is divided on whether or not the country is ready for the polls.

Elections will not take place as planned in 2008, according to the National Independent Election Commission (CENI).

Originally scheduled for the end of 2007, then the end of 2008, transparent, democratic elections were one of the actions agreed by union leaders, opposition party leaders and parliamentarians following widespread civil unrest in early 2007.

Many analysts say sound elections are the only path to the formation of a government that can meet the needs of Guineans and lift the country out of a long period of socio-economic and political unrest. More 60 percent of Guineans do not have access to safe water, and about 40 percent of the country does not have regular electricity according to Guinean Electricity Board (EDG) figures.

Sekou Konaté, secretary-general of the ruling Party of Unity and Progress (PUP) told reporters at a Conakry press conference on 16 November that legislative elections could now be put off to coincide with presidential elections scheduled for 2010.

Some contest plans to join the two polls, saying legislative elections must go ahead as soon as possible, while others say Guinea first needs national dialogue and a stronger opposition in order for a legitimate parliamentary poll to take place.

Why delays

Guinean Prime Minister Ahmed Tidiane Soaré told IRIN at a Conakry conference on security and elections in West Africa that elections cannot be held until more "national consensus" has been built. "We need solidarity, consensus, unity among all Guineans, and to develop a common goal of peace if elections here are going to work." The conference was organised by the UN and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

But Mohamed Diané, member of opposition party Rally of the Guinean People (RPG), said the ruling party is deliberately delaying legislative polls. "Despite all the declarations?on the ground there is a real lack of will by the authorities responsible for organising the electoral process."

Another opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, president of opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), said the electoral process is being held up by a lack of government funding and of such basic supplies as ink, fuel and paper with which to register new voters and revise electoral lists.

Diallo said technicians hired for the registration process have not been fully paid partly because of a lack of funds.

In a speech at the UN-ECOWAS conference, Prime Minister Soaré said: "Elections are expensive - they require a lot of equipment and modern technology."

But it is not clear whether a lack of funding and equipment or a lack of will is at work, observers say. Registration of new voters has stopped altogether Kindia prefecture because of a lack of ink, according to Elizabeth Cote, country director for non-profit International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES).

To date, international donors have given US$9 million for the electoral process, which is budgeted to cost $23 million in total, according to the CENI.

Cote told IRIN she expects legislative elections to be held in the first few months 2009. She said the CENI is expected to issue a new schedule in the coming weeks.

The CENI, the government and donors are holding meetings to map out the way forward, according to Cote.

But many donors are waiting for the government to show commitment to elections by stepping up more cash, an analyst told IRIN.

Adedeji Ebo, chief of security sector reform at the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations, said real consensus can come about only through a national dialogue among all stakeholders.

One analyst who wished to remain anonymous said despite pressure from some donors and international agencies, going to elections too soon -- without adequate national consensus -- might be "exactly what not to do" in Guinea. "Elections have the potential to set the country back and cause violence," the analyst said. "If the opposition wins, the government could create trouble, and vice versa. We need to build more consensus before going ahead. If opposition parties are strengthened and the government understands the need for reform, we could even see a working, power-sharing government in 2010."

But people want elections now, according to IFES's Cote. Just off a three-month tour of prefectures throughout the country, Cote told IRIN: "The Guinean population is expecting and waiting for elections?people are longing for change, reform and better governance. This expectation has not waned and it will not."

Viable opposition?

Tadjoudine Ali Diabacté, deputy director in the election assistance division of the UN Department for Political Affairs -- who worked for the UN in Guinea in 1993, 1998 and 2001 -- told IRIN that opposition forces must be strengthened if they are to put up meaningful competition. "The opposition is getting weaker and weaker in Guinea. Trade unions are stronger than the opposition. There is little contra-power to challenge [the ruling party]," he told IRIN.

Alpha Condé, president of the opposition RPG, countered that opposition political parties in Guinea are viable. "Those who think the Guinean opposition no longer counts in the consciences of Guineans are wrong. All the people are united in wanting to bring an end to the President's regime. In January and February 2007 it was political parties who mobilised people to demand change."

Of some 59 accredited political parties in Guinea, six are dominant.

IFES's Cote said the political opposition is ready for elections. "The main opposition parties are capable of running an election campaign and getting their members elected?what is important is that people feel their vote has been respected."

She continued: "It is dangerous for Guinea to even start postponing elections [further]. Civil society ? youth groups, unions, women's groups, and many of the political parties are ready."

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