Georgia, Russia inch close to troop withdrawal accord

Photos by Alexander Klimchuk: 5/24/05

The stop-start negotiations over the Russian withdrawal from two military bases on Georgian territory may be finally drawing to a close. Both sides have reported "serious progress" during the latest round of talks, as Moscow signaled a willingness to take its troops out of Georgia in 2008.

Georgian and Russian negotiators came close to striking a deal in early May, but the agreement fell apart over disagreement on a precise withdrawal timetable. Georgian leaders wanted the two Russian bases – in Batumi and Akhalkalaki – to be vacated by the end of 2007. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov scuttled the deal, saying more time was needed to find new accommodations for departing Russian troops. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Speaking after a negotiating round on May 23, Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili declared that the two sides had clarified "secondary questions," and would concentrate on the withdrawal timetable issue when talks resumed May 24. Russian special envoy Igor Savolsky said Moscow is amenable to a step-by-step withdrawal, in which the last Russian forces would leave Georgia at some point in 2008. Georgian leaders previously resisted a 2008 deadline, citing the fact that it is also an election year in Georgia. However, it now appears that Tbilisi will give serious consideration to the Russian proposal.

"Russian proposals concerning the timetable and regime for the removal of bases and the setting up of an anti-terrorist center may be acceptable for us..... Whether the bases leave by January 1, 2008, or in May that year is not that important," the Kavkasia Press news agency quoted Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze as saying.

Part of the cost of getting Russian troops to leave, as Burjanadze indicated, may be the establishment of a joint anti-terrorism center, which would enable Russia to maintain a toe-hold in Georgia. Some Georgian opposition politicians, including New Rights Party leader David Gamkrelidze, warned that Russia would use such an entity to continue exerting geopolitical influence over Georgia.

"We are making a serious mistake by allowing [Moscow] to replace its bases in Georgia with a joint anti-terrorist center. As a result, we will accept a legalized anti-terrorist center, staffed with the same Russian servicemen and equipment, in place of illegal military bases," Gamkrelidze said in comments broadcast by Imedi television. Gamkrelidze was referring to a parliamentary resolution, adopted in March, in which the legislature called on President Mikheil Saakashvili's administration to declare the Russian bases illegal in the event a withdrawal timetable was not agreed upon by mid May. So far, Saakashvili has not formally acted on the non-binding resolution. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In Moscow, Russian leaders seem to be laying the groundwork for public acceptance of a withdrawal accord. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a meeting with the editorial staff of the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper on May 23, downplayed the strategic significance of the bases. "They are not bases, but just places where Soviet soldiers were always located. These bases are not of interest for us in terms of Russia's security issues – this is the opinion of the Russian General Staff," Putin said.

Preliminary withdrawal plans call for Moscow to re-locate a portion of its forces now stationed in Georgia to neighboring Armenia, Russia's strongest ally in the South Caucasus. The planned troop transfer has caught the attention of Azerbaijan, as Azeri officials fear that such a troop realignment could provide Armenia with a boost in the ongoing search for a Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On May 23, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry passed a diplomatic note to Russian officials stating that the planned reinforcement of Russian forces in Armenia "does not serve the interests of peace and security in the region."

In Akhalkalaki, roughly 125 miles southwest of Tbilisi, life at the Russian base, as the accompanying photos by Alexander Klimchuk illustrate, continues to follow its normal pace. Perhaps the people most anxious about the pending withdrawal agreement are local residents. The Akhalkalaki base is a major employer for residents of the surrounding area, many of whom are ethnic Armenians. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Local residents are concerned that once the Russian forces leave, economic opportunities will evaporate. Georgian government officials have tried to reassure the ethnic Armenian population, pledging to provide additional support for the maintenance of the existing socio-economic infrastructure. However, such pledges do not assuage Akhalkalaki's ethnic Armenian community leaders, who note that government efforts to improve local economic conditions, undertaken since Saakashvili became president in January 2004, have produced few noticeable results to date.