Garissa University Attacks Highlight Al-Shabaab's Resiliency

The Garissa University attacks have demonstrated al-Shabaab's resiliency despite growing evidence that international efforts against al-Shabaab have been paying off. In the past year, the group lost a significant amount of territory in Somalia, and a number of senior leaders were killed; the most recent of whom, Adan Garaar, the alleged ringleader of the September 2013 Westgate Mall attack in Kenya, was killed in a U.S. drone strike on March 13 in southern Somalia (The Standard [Nairobi], March 12). In addition, there have been a series of defections within the group, and Kenyan security forces disrupted a recruiting network in that country. The militant group is still a force to be reckoned with, however. The siege of Garissa University in Kenya on April 2 continued a trend of high-profile and deadly attacks within Kenya, and on Kenya Christians in particular, indicating that as safe havens in Somalia have been eliminated, the group is shifting their focus to soft targets, as evidenced by the Westgate attack, and territories.

Al-Shabaab has increasingly focused their attacks within Kenya. The April 2 attack on Garissa University College, in which militants laid siege to the college campus for hours until their defeat by security forces, is the latest example. An estimated 147 people were killed, making this the deadliest al-Shabaab attack yet (Reuters, April 2). Earlier this year, al-Shabaab launchers a cross-border raid from Somalia when they locked several people inside a shop and set it on fire, killing at least four (Horseed Media, March 18). This raid occurred in Wajir, roughly 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the Somali-Kenyan border. The ability of militants to cross this far into Kenya comes as the country considers building a security wall along its border with Somalia in order to halt these types of cross-border incursions (The Standard, March 23). In another notable development, which underlines the group's continuing attraction to some Islamist radicals, multiple Kenyan women have been arrested at the border for trying to marry al-Shabaab militants (The Standard [Nairobi], March 31). The latest three women arrested were well-educated and from middle-class families, upending the narrative that the Kenyans who join the group are poorer and uneducated. The arrests also provide a clear point of comparison with women joining the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, who are often from similar related privileged backgrounds.

Meanwhile, in Uganda, Joan Kagezi, the lead prosecutor in the ongoing trial of 13 men accused of terrorism, murder and membership in a terrorist organization, was killed on March 30 by two men who shot her while she was commuting home from work (The Standard [Nairobi], March 31). This comes shortly after the U.S. Embassy in Kampala warned of a potential terrorist attack. The 13 accused are on trial in connection with the 2010 World Cup bombings in Kampala, al-Shabaab's first major attack outside of Somalia. 74 people were killed in these attacks when suicide bombers detonated at viewing parties at an Ethiopian restaurant and a rugby club during the final match (al-Jazeera, July 13, 2010).

In Somalia, itself, al-Shabaab's fortunes have been mixed. On March 27, al-Shabaab attacked the Maka al-Mukarramah Hotel in Mogadishu, first with a suicide vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED), which was followed by additional militants storming the building. Eighteen people were killed, including Yusuf Mohamed Ismail (a.k.a. Bari-Bari), Somalia's ambassador to Switzerland and Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva (AllAfrica, March 30). Some of those killed were initially taken as hostages, but were then beheaded (Garowe Online, March 28). This additional level of brutality is strongly reminiscent of the Islamic State's approach to killing hostages in Syria and Iraq. In contrast to this display of power in the heart of the capital, however, two days later, a key al-Shabaab member, Mohamed Ali Hassan, surrendered to Somalia government troops in Bakool, in southwestern Somalia. Hassan was a key member of al-Shabaab's highly effective intelligence wing, Amniyat, and was responsible for a number of suicide bombings (Garowe Online, March 30). His defection will certainly reduce al-Shabaab's operational capacity in Bakool both as a result of the group losing his expertise and in terms of intelligence that he reveals to the Somali government.

These developments indicate that, despite the loss of a substantial amount of territory and the deaths of key leaders, al-Shabaab is still capable of conducting deadly attacks across the Horn of Africa region. Indeed, the group has proven itself able to bounce back before, having alternated between controlling substantial amounts of Somalia and controlling very little territory since the fall of the Islamic Courts Union, its predecessor, in 2006 (Terrorism Monitor, January 23). Assassinations and suicide attacks are likely to be al-Shabaab's lifeline until the group is either eliminated or retakes territory.

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