A political party for Georgia's former defense minister?

Molly Corso 6/01/07

Media speculation has run rampant in recent weeks that former Georgian Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili plans to set up a political party in opposition to his one-time mentor, President Mikheil Saakashvili. The party's foundation has been described as "imminent." But, with no word from Okruashvili, some political analysts are wondering what stands behind the rumors.

The story first broke on May 16 when both Rezonansi (Resonance), a Georgian newspaper with strong opposition leanings, and InterPressNews reported that Okruashvili had opened a party office in Tbilisi and was preparing to launch his opposition movement "next week."

The office, however, never opened. Nor has the elusive Okruashvili made any official statements about such an event. Rezonansi Deputy Editor Eliso Chapidze, nonetheless, says that the paper stands by its story and maintains that its information source is "reliable."

Okruashvili abruptly resigned from the government in November 2006, after he was reassigned to head the economic development ministry. Known for his hawkish views on conflict resolution and Georgia's troubled relations with Russia, the former minister – a close ally of President Mikheil Saakashvili – had promised at a November 20 press conference that he would "be back very soon where my heart belongs – in the army." [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

At the time, speculation ran wild about whether or not a disgruntled Okruashvili would join the opposition. In the months since, the conjecture about the 33-year-old Okruashvili's exact plans and whereabouts has continued.

Georgian and Russian media reports have put him in both London and Kyiv. On May 22, several Georgian agencies also reported a sighting in Georgian-controlled South Ossetia, where they said that Okruashvili had met with Dmitri Sanakoyev, the newly appointed head of Tbilisi's administrative unit within the territory.

Sanakoyev publicly denied the story, claiming that reporters likely confused his friend Giorgi Okruashvili with the former minister. Calls to Sanakoyev's spokesperson were not answered.

The fact that media speculation is still running strong, seven months after Okruashvili's departure from government reflects the unsettled state of Georgian politics, political scientist Malkhaz Matsaberidze commented. "People are not satisfied with the current [ruling politicians] but they don't see any other alternative," he said.

Although ratings for Saakashvili's ruling party are falling, opposition parties are not getting any stronger, noted Matsaberidze, a professor at Tbilisi State University. Disaffection with both ruling party and opposition party leaders is rampant, he added.

That vacuum, according to Matsaberidze, could leave a place for Okruashvili. "The opposition should have a strong, charismatic leader," he said. "Okruashvili had a high rating while he was the minister of defense. These rumors started to circulate as soon as he left the government."

Some members of the opposition, however, are skeptical about Okruashvili's prospects in Georgian politics. "Politically, he is very weak. He does not have any political support or political [platform]..." commented Giorgi Mosidze, international secretary of the New Rights Party. "He is not a politician."

The media has also speculated that Okruashvili is considering an alliance with ex-Conservative Party leader Koba Davitashvili, head of the new opposition People's Party and a former occasional ally of President Saakashvili. Davitashvili has denied the reports, although he did not rule out future cooperation with Okruashvili.

"Until I have met with him and spoken with him about this topic, it is very hard to say anything," he said. "Our mass media – and, in general, the public – favors rumors, and conspiracy theories. There are always rumors and a lot of them are not backed up by reality."

On May 21, the Russian daily newspaper Izvestia floated another theory: the paper argued that it is in Saakashvili's best interest to have his close ally pose as an opposition member. Tbilisi has been under attack from the European Union, the Council of Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization recently about the overall weakness of the Georgian opposition.

But Matsaberidze said that the person most likely to benefit from the rumors is Okruashvili himself. Any politician – even a minister as vocal and volatile as the former defense minister – is soon forgotten if he or she stays out of the spotlight for too long, he noted.

"Information is being spread by the media. Maybe that is an attempt to test the public's opinion – does the public want Okruashvili to start an opposition party?" Matsaberidze asked. "Okruashvili is not active in politics right now... it is in his interests for that type of information to appear and remind people about him periodically."

Editor's Note: Molly Corso is a freelance reporter and photojournalist based in Tbilisi.

Posted June 1, 2007 © Eurasianet