Cautious Welcome for New Afghan President

After six months of delay, deadlock and argument, Afghans have a new president - Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.

The chairman of the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC), Ahmad Yusuf Nuristani, declared Ashraf Ghani president on September 21.

Commentators in Kabul are breathing a sigh of relief at the forging of a unity government in a deal with losing candidate Abdullah Abdullah, but warn that continuing divisions pose risks to the country's long-term stability.

In the first round of voting on April 5, neither Ashraf Ghani nor Abdullah emerged with an absolute majority. Former foreign minister Abdullah, with 45 per cent, and one-time World Bank economist Ashraf Ghani, with 32 per cent, went head to head in a second round held on June 14.

When Abdullah claimed that his rival's supporters had fixed the result, a total recount was announced, with international experts invited in to supervise it. Abdullah withdrew his observers from the audit in late August, but it continued anyway.

Definitive final figures have not yet been announced, as officials are worried they could lead to street protests. IEC chief Nuristani said only that hundreds of thousands of votes for both candidates had been nullified.

"Although the reassessment of the votes was comprehensive, credible and unprecedented [in scale], it still failed to uncover the incidents of fraud claimed by both sides, which were very complicated in nature," he said.

Just hours before the announcement, both candidates signed an agreement on creating a national unity government, a plan suggested by US Secretary of State John Kerry, who has intervened repeatedly to help keep the electoral process on track.

Under the deal, Abdullah or one of his deputies will serve in the specially-created post of chief executive.

"I'm happy that our brothers Dr Ashraf Ghani and Dr Abdullah struck an Afghan deal for the sake of the wellbeing and prosperity of the country," outgoing president Hamed Karzai said. "I hope that through their efforts, this country achieves lasting peace."

The agreement was warmly welcomed by the international community, which feared a power vacuum in Afghanistan as NATO-led troops prepare to withdraw by the end of this year.

Signing the long-awaited Bilateral Security Pact with the United States will be a top priority for the new president.

In a congratulatory phone call, President Barack Obama "reaffirmed the United States' strategic partnership with Afghanistan and commitment to continue its support to the new Afghan government", the White House said.

President Hassan Rouhani of neighbouring Iran also hailed the national unity government which he hoped would lead to stability and security for Afghanistan.

In his message of congratulations, Pakistani president Mamnoon Hussain pointed to "deep-rooted relations based on commonalities of faith, culture and history".

Ashraf Ghani used his first speech as president-elect to thank the Afghan people for their patience in waiting for the long-delayed result, and vowed that his government would ensure justice, transparency and accountability.

"You voted for us so that we could bring peace and stability. Stability in Afghanistan is more important to us than anything else," he said. "The goal of the national unity government is peace. We are tired of bloodshed."

Ashraf Ghani said his administration would focus on implementing the reforms promised by both campaign teams, and promised that he would report back on progress every six months.

In an interview to CNN television, Abdullah said forming a coalition was the only viable option.

"There was no better alternative than the formation of [a] national unity government," he said. "This will urge both sides to work together with the spirit of partnership and successes for everybody and for the people of Afghanistan. God forbidding, failure will turn into a failure for everybody."

Abdullah said the new administration should enter into serious talks with the Taleban, without ruling out the use of force against them if they did not choose the path of peace.

For their part, the Taleban dismissed the election as a US-orchestrated sham and vowed to continue fighting against the new administration just as they had done against Karzai.

"Our jihad continues for complete freedom from occupation and the establishment of an Islamic government," the insurgent group said in a statement.

Political analyst Abdul Ghafur Lewal agreed that the creation of a national unity government was the only reasonable outcome.

"The government has been monopolised by certain circles for the past 30 years, without this ever being stated," he said, referring to an old guard of powerbrokers dating back to the days of the mujahedin and the Northern Alliance. "One cannot eliminate them from power once and for all."

Lewal acknowledged that there had been hitches in the election process, but stressed that Afghans were still learning how to implement democracy.

"Taking into account the current situation in the country and the structure of the national unity government, I am cautiously optimistic," he said.

He called for a new atmosphere of trust between the two camps, since both domestic and regional opponents would try to derail the government.

"Continued cooperation between the two teams will guarantee their political future. If they are successful in their work and the implementation of their programmes, they will have power in their hands for some years, without a doubt," Lewal concluded.

Jawed Kohestani, another political analyst, was less confident, describing the new administration as weak and fragile.

He said the delegation of powers to the new role of chief executive - itself created by presidential decree - not only went against the constitution, but would also lead to further tensions.

"It will be difficult for Ahmadzai to delegate powers to the chief executive, which is an unlawful position. He will not want to give greater powers to this post," Kohestani said. "On the other hand, the opponent who will occupy the post will demand more authority, even equal to that of the president. That is a point where tension and crisis between the two teams is possible."

In Kabul, supporters of both sides were disappointed by the final compromise.

Abdullah voter Wahid, 45, told IWPR, "Abdullah traded his supporters' votes. He resisted as long as his personal demands remained unaddressed, but when those demands were met, he ignored everything else. I really regret having voted for him. He was a liar and a deceiver with a thirst for power."

Hamed, 25, who voted for Ashraf Ghani, was just as dissatisfied with the outcome.

"Ashraf Ghani said he would not form a coalition. He hasn't stood by his word. He's given power to the Northern Alliance and many warlords again," he said.

Yet Hamed still insisted that he had faith in Ashraf Ghani's abilities, adding, "My demand to him is to choose competence over personal connections and to create a government ruled by law."

Others say that the political instability of recent months could not be allowed to continue.

"Uncertainty over the election outcome did severe damage to the country's economic and security sectors. Civil war looked likely," said Naser Aziz, a journalist. "Although there are still concerns about stability and the continuity of the new government's work, there is a lot of hope that the country will emerge from crisis. We want stability, security, economy and rule of law, regardless of what kind of government it is."

But there are still some who see the unity government as both unconstitutional and unsustainable.

"This government has been created in contravention of the constitution. It has placed the final nail in the coffin of democracy and the people's will," said Fahim Fitrat, a political activist. "The foundations of this government are weak and shaky. We will soon witness further insecurity and wrongdoing."