Mongolia on the eve of general election

6/28/00

It has not been an easy year so far for Mongolia. Intense heat is now enveloping the nation, after Mongolians just endured the coldest winter in 40 years. The severe weather is responsible for the deaths of approximately 2.5 million head of livestock, threatening an economic catastrophe in this land-locked country of 2.3 million, wedged between two giant neighbors ... Russia and China.

Against the backdrop of looming drought, Mongolians are heading for the polls July 2 to elect a new parliament. The elections mark the third time since the collapse of communism and the launch of political and economic reforms in the early 1990s that Mongolians have chosen representatives to the State Ih Hural, or parliament.

Observers predict an enthusiastic turnout among the 1.34 million-strong electorate on the first Sunday in July. The previous parliament elections featured high voter participation: In 1992, over 95 percent of eligible voters cast ballots, while in 1996, almost 93 percent went to the polls.

Experts note that the number of candidates for the 2000 election totals 660, a more than two-fold increase in the number of candidates in the 1996 vote. They will battle for 76 seats in the unicameral parliament.

The last four years have witnessed explosive growth in the political sphere, and 24 officially registered parties will be competing in the elections. Twelve of the 24 parties have been founded since 1998. Experts differ over the reason for the rapid expansion of political parties. Some see the reason rooted in the ambitions of those politicians left outside the State Ih Hural in 1996. Others associate this phenomenon with the growing maturity of society in the course of a democratic development.

The rapid increase in political options does not necessarily translate into a pending overhaul of the parliament's composition. The key players remain the old guard of the ruling coalition, along with the current main opposition. In the 1996 vote, the Mongolian National Democratic Party (MNDP) and Mongolian Social Democratic Party (MSDP) joined forces under the Democratic Union Coalition, which captured 66 percent of the vote and 50 of the 76 seats in parliament. The main opposition Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP) – the former Communist party – received 33 percent of the vote and won 25 parliamentary seats.

The most significant development this year is that the MNDP and MSDP will be competing separately. The election will also be a test for the MPRP, which has undergone an extensive reorganization in an effort to increase its voter appeal. The party has distanced itself from its old Marxist platform and has publicly embraced the values of democracy and a market economy.

The current parliament can boast a considerable number of accomplishments. These include: the stabilization of macroeconomic indexes; the reduction of inflation to a single digit level; the privatization of housing in urban areas; a new media law abolishing state control over the press; promotion of the growth of the private sector in the national economy; the introduction of a five-day work week; and the adoption of an official apology to the victims of political repression.

Of course, the current parliament has also presided over a period of slow economic growth and a lack of significant foreign investment. In addition, parliament has not been able to alleviate widespread economic hardships felt by Mongolians.

Opinion poll surveys indicate that economic difficulties could provide a boost to the main opposition MPRP's electoral fortunes. A major feature of the MPRP's campaign strategy has been a promise to fight for the expansion of Mongolia's social welfare safety net.

However, opinion surveys have proven somewhat unreliable in the past. Surveys in 1996 indicated that MPRP would perform much better than was actually the case.

Personal merits and individual characteristics of the nominees appear to be crucial elements for undecided voters in making a final decision. This factor could end up hurting the MPRP, as many among its 76 candidates are political unknowns. In contrast, a large number of candidates from the incumbent ruling parties are well-known politicians. The same factor could help several prominent politicians from newly emerged parties to win seats in parliament.

Posted June 28, 2000 © Eurasianet