The Central Asian crisis: Opposition movements in region on defensive

3/12/03

These are the times that try the will of Central Asian opposition movements to resist government pressure. In three Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan – opposition movements are buckling as those countries' leaders take action to stamp out domestic criticism. In all three cases, a lack of cooperation among various opposition movements has hampered their ability to counter the crackdowns.

In Turkmenistan, President Saparmurat Niyazov has succeeded in smashing his domestic opposition, carrying out a massive security sweep following a failed assassination attempt last November. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Opposition movements remain viable in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Nevertheless, in recent weeks government critics in both countries have been thrown on the defensive.

In Kazakhstan, the prosecution of journalist Sergei Duvanov has come to symbolize the opposition's current plight. On March 11, an Almaty regional court upheld Duvanov's rape conviction. The decision indicates that Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev remains unwilling to seek accommodation with his political opponents, and instead intends to pursue a confrontational course. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The appellate ruling, like Duvanov's original conviction in January, quickly drew international criticism. "Based on the recent history of persecution of opposition activists and journalists, and in particular of Duvanov, ... the guilty verdict against this journalist was made in retaliation for his outspoken and persistent criticism of Kazakhstan's high officials," the International League for Human Rights said in a March 11 letter to Nazarbayev.

Duvanov is not the only high-profile opposition figure to be imprisoned in Kazakhstan. Mukhtar Ablyazov and Galimzhan Zhakiyanov – two leaders of Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK), a major opposition movement – are serving jail terms. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Irina Petrushova, an opposition journalist, told EurasiaNet that the political environment in Kazakhstan is "just like in the old Soviet times. They [police] follow us [Nazarbayev critics] just like authorities hounded dissidents under the Communists." Such surveillance, Petrushova added, is motivated by the desire "to remain in power for a long time."

The balance of forces is more equal in Kyrgyzstan, as critics of President Askar Akayev's administration remain vocal in expressing dissent. Nevertheless, the opposition has found itself on the defensive since a February constitutional referendum that, despite allegations of voting irregularities, was widely viewed as a triumph for Akayev. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

At a March 6 gathering of the Kurultai, a national assembly staged by the government, Akayev seized the initiative in the domestic political struggle. Akayev staked out the high ground, casting himself as the defender of stability. The president went on to attack what he termed "the irreconcilable opposition," saying it sought to destabilize. Most of Akayev's fiercest critics boycotted the Kurultai.

Akayev's comments at the Kurultai were indicative of a lack of cohesion within the opposition camp. Indeed, in the ongoing political battles, opposition movements in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan have all suffered because of lack of unity, often fueled by leadership rivalries.

Prior to the assassination attempt in Turkmenistan, for example, the leaders of the two major Turkmen opposition movements, Avdy Kuliev and Boris Shikhmuradov, struggled to set aside strategic and tactical differences. A greater level of cooperation between the two might have altered the chain of events in which Shikhmuradov entered Turkmenistan clandestinely, only to be arrested and jailed in the aftermath of the November assassination attempt, the circumstances of which remain murky.

In Kyrgyzstan, local political analysts say Akayev is taking advantage of a growing rift between the radical and more moderate branches of the opposition. The main fault line on which the opposition is dividing is over whether some sort of accommodation can be reached with Akayev, or whether he must go. Akayev, as his Kurultai comments showed, is hoping to isolate the radicals.

Nowhere has the opposition been hurt more by disunity than in Kazakhstan, where two rival opposition movements – the DCK and Republican National Party of Kazakhstan (RNPK) – have vied for prominence. RNPK leader Akezhan Kazhegeldin, a former Kazakhstani prime minister, is currently living in exile because of accusations of misconduct while in office. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Given the Nazarbayev administration's hard-line approach, political observers say that the two movements could mount more effective resistance if they coordinated activities. Representatives from both movements agree that a greater level of cooperation would be ideal, but they stress that, under present circumstances, initiatives aimed at unity are unlikely. Both sides point to substantial philosophical differences as a major obstacle.

"DCK is not so interested in coming to power as it is in defending its interests," said Amirzhan Kossanov, the RNPK executive committee chairman. He asserted that many DCK leaders are entrepreneurs who got involved in politics to fend off encroachment in the economic sphere by Nazarbayev's friends, associates and family members. The RNPK, Kossanov continued, seeks to replace Nazarbayev by constitutional means. "For real politicians, the main aim is power," he said.

Meanwhile, DCK loyalists say Kazhegeldin's and the RNPK's confrontational stance can be counter-productive. "Kazhegeldin often does not have a firm grasp of the situation on the ground," Petrushova said.

Both sides also cite personality conflicts as a source of tension. "There are a lot of contradictions mainly because of relations among leaders," said Yevgeny Zhovtis, the head of the Kazakhstan Bureau for Human Rights and the Rule of Law. "Kazhegeldin wants to be the leader [of a unified opposition] and DCK activists oppose this."

Zhovtis said it would be difficult for the two movements to set aside their differences because neither has the means at present to dominate the other. "There is little chance of conciliation," he said. "Internally [in Kazakhstan], DCK is stronger. But the RNPK has more resources and is more influential abroad."

Posted March 12, 2003 © Eurasianet