Parties and blocs to dominate Azerbaijan's parliamentary poll

Shahin Abbasov and Khadija Ismailova 9/30/05

With more than 2,000 contenders registered for Azerbaijan's upcoming parliamentary elections, observers are predicting a heated campaign. Despite an unprecedented number of independent candidates, long-standing political parties are dominating the campaign.

Cooperation and coordination could prove pivotal in determining the composition of the next parliament. The opposition is relying on election blocs, while many independent candidates have united into loose alliances to boost their competitiveness against the governing Yeni Azerbaijan Party.

The November 6 parliamentary vote will be the first since the country's 2002 constitutional referendum, which abolished the proportional election system. Candidates will compete instead for single-mandate seats. To date, it is also the first election in Azerbaijan's post-Soviet history in which candidates – including two political exiles – have been able to register with relative ease. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Three political parties and blocs are dominating the campaign: the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan (New Azerbaijan) Party, the opposition Azadlig (Freedom) alliance, comprising the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, Musavat Party and Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, and the Yeni Siyaset or YeS (New Policy) bloc.

As of late September, some 2,037 candidates were registered for the November 6 vote, the newspaper Ekspress quoted the Central Election Commission as saying. Between them, these three parties and blocs are running some 300 candidates. More than 1,500 individuals are running as independents. A host of smaller parties (Alliance for Azerbaijan, Hope Party, Pro-Azerbaijani Forces and others) each with fewer than 60 candidates, makes up the rest.

An assortment of alliances, often with the words "new" or "reforms" as part of their names, has emerged to promote the interests of these so-called "non-partisan" candidates. Experts believe that these groups are intended to appeal to voters who are disappointed by both the ruling party and the traditional opposition powers, as represented by Azadliq and YeS.

While Azadliq makes no secret of its desire for a complete change of political leadership, the ruling YAP is campaigning with a message of preservation of Azerbaijan's economic gains since the early 1990s and gradual reform.

The ruling party's candidate list, the last to be published, has generated considerable controversy. The delay in publishing the list prompted speculation that YAP was concealing an alternative list of candidates who would enjoy the government's actual support. While the party maintains that is interested in reform, its best-known candidates are not names normally associated with progressive change, some analysts say. Perhaps the YAP candidate most likely to attract attention is Mehriban Aliyeva, Azerbaijan's first lady, who enjoys considerable popularity for her charitable work. Well-known hard-line parliamentarians – including Ahad Abiyev, Musa Musayev and Jalal Aliyev, the uncle of President Ilham Aliyev – also headline the party list.

Ironically, in some constituencies in which YAP faces stiff competition from an opposition candidate, the party is running candidates deemed relatively weak or untested by local analysts. Several pro-opposition observers believe that the Aliyev administration is willing to concede a few seats in parliament to the opposition out of a desire to prevent the possibility of election-related unrest. Others argue that the YAP candidate list has been designed primarily to address internal party disputes. "It is clear that the list was designed to subdue internal conflicts in the Yeni Azerbaijan Party," YeS leader Eldar Namazov, a former presidential aide, commented.

One YAP candidate disagrees with the criticism of the party's roster of candidates. "This list includes former MPs and new names as well as those who have great merits within the party. If the list would include only nationally known personalities, it would prevent regional party members from getting a chance to become better known," commented Aydin Mirzazade, a candidate running from the 47th Mingachevir constituency outside of Baku. "We are the strongest party and the list shows that."

In a significant number of constituencies, many so-called "independent" candidates are YAP members running without the party's official backing. Truly independent candidates argue that they are having a difficult time competing. Under Azerbaijani election law, parties or alliances must have more than 60 candidates running in the elections to qualify for free access to state-run national television. That rule applies to only four of the parties and alliances running in this November's election: YAP, Azadliq, YeS and the Azerbaijani Liberal Party.

To maintain a foothold in the campaign, many independent candidates have forged alliances to share resources. The groups range from a bloc for media professionals to an alliance of economists. While individuals can donate no more than $590 to an independent candidate, and legal entities only $11,800, independent candidates sponsored by an election alliance or political party can receive up to $59,000 for campaign expenses from the alliance or $29,500 from a political party, stated Alasgar Mammadli, an expert on electoral law.

The advantages to be had from collaborative campaigning are illustrated by Azadliq, the tripartite opposition bloc that has been the most outspoken against YAP. According to Ilgar Mammadov, an independent political analyst and a non-partisan candidate in the elections, the bloc's list of 115 candidates underscores its political unity. The bloc's three participating parties – Musavat, the Popular Front and Democratic Party of Azerbaijan – agreed on 33 nominees each, with primaries deciding candidates for the remaining 16 constituencies that Azadliq is contesting.

According to Mammadov, the bloc's wish to have an equal number of candidates resulted in a sacrifice of quality in some cases. "The best example is the Sabail-Nasimi constituency [in and around Baku's Old City], where Rasim Musabekov, a Musavat member and political analyst with a great chance to win, was opposed by the Azadlig nominee Zamina Dunyamaliyeva, a little-known member of the Democratic Party," he said. Adding to the complications: Musabekov will run as an "independent" candidate rather than as a member of the Azadliq bloc, meaning that he does not qualify for bloc-supplied campaign funds and assistance.

Popular Front Deputy Chairman Fuad Mustafayev, however, argued that any loss of quality was a small price to pay for uniting Azerbaijan's three largest opposition parties for the November 6 vote. "The long-awaited alliance is designed for long-term purposes. We had to move from an autonomous existence to co-existence," Mustafayev said.

According to YeS leader Eldar Namazov, an even broader alliance that included YeS would have improved the opposition's chances at the polls. "It would be better if the alliances would come up with single opposition lists," he said. "However, the Azadlig leaders failed to reach a common decision on uniting with other opposition groups."

The YeS alliance, formed in April 2005, was originally expected to be a "third force" that could attract voters disappointed by the traditional opposition and the government. The bloc has since veered much more strongly toward the opposition. The alliance's platform, titled "From Authoritarianism to Democracy, From Corruption to a Legal State," is highly critical of the Aliyev administration.

"All our candidates support the ideas described in the document," said Namazov. "They desire political and economic reforms." However, Mammadov argued that the lack of time between YeS's foundation and the elections meant that few of the bloc's 69 candidates, apart from Namazov and Etibar Mammadov, leader of the National Independence Party, are strong candidates. "Most of them are people with a communist nomenklatura past. The quality of the YeS alliance is lagging behind both the YAP and Azadlig lists," Mammadov said.

Namazov countered that those candidates believed to be holdovers from the Soviet past are professionals with considerable experience in administrative management. "The members of [first Azerbaijani President Ayaz] Mutallibov's [last President Abulfaz] Elchibey's and [late President Heidar] Aliyev's cabinets are among our nominees. It shows that our alliance is based not on enmity, but on reconciliation."

Former President Ayaz Mutallibov, arguably YeS's best known candidate, now in exile in Russia, is expected to face a difficult race against Lala Shovket Hajiyeva, leader of the Azerbaijan Liberal Party. The Liberals are running 65 candidates, most of them little known. However, experts believe that Hajiyeva's reputation for avoiding negative campaigning could result in considerable gains for the party at the polls.

Editor's Note: Khadija Ismailova and Shahin Abbasov are freelance journalists based in Baku.

Posted September 30, 2005 © Eurasianet