AQAP, Islamic State Resurgent in Yemen

A U.S. drone strike in Yemen's eastern Hadramawt province on June 12 killed Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the amir of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), al-Qaeda's official subsidiary in the country (al-Jazeera, June 17). His death was later confirmed by AQAP, which shortly afterward executed two alleged spies in al-Mukalla, put their bodies on public display and distributed the images on social media (Mukalla Star, June 19). The group also announced that Qasim al-Raymi, formerly the group's military commander, would now become its overall leader (Daily Star [Beirut], June 16). The impact of the leadership change on the group is currently unclear. Although al-Wuhayshi was a long-standing, charismatic and experienced leader, as well as one of the highest profile jihadists in the Middle East, his replacement is also experienced and is likely to prove equally capable in the long-run.

Underlining that the jihadist challenge in Yemen is far bigger than al-Wuhayshi, Sunni jihadists in recent weeks continued to launch attacks against the Houthis, the Zaydi Shi'a movement that currently controls the capital Sana'a. Most recently, on June 20, a car bomb exploded outside a mosque in Sana'a's Old City used by the Houthis, killing two people (Saba News, June 20). The Islamic State, AQAP's rival, later claimed responsibility for the attack. Three days earlier, on June 17, two car bombs had targeted two mosques in Old Sana'a known to have been regularly worshipped at by the Houthis, killing two people and wounding 60, although no group claimed responsibility (Saba News, June 18). At the same time, Saudi airstrikes against both military and other targets linked to the Houthis and their allies from the regular Yemeni military have continued in Sana'a and elsewhere, for instance targeting the Ministry of Defense in the capital on June 12 (Yemen Times, June 12). Saudi airstrikes on the same day also destroyed several civilian houses in the Old City, although a Saudi military spokesman Ahmed Assiri unconvincingly claimed that Saudi "has not performed any operations in these historic districts and has not targeted ancient Sana'a" (Gulf News, June 13). Given the international opprobrium that descended on Saudi Arabia after the bombing of the Old City, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, it was perhaps fortuitous for Riyadh that historic Houthi-frequented mosques in the same areas were shortly afterwards struck by car bombs, only one of which was claimed by the Islamic State, causing collateral damage to houses and nearby civilians but not to Saudi Arabia's reputation.

Indeed, one of the most important factors in Yemen in coming months will be the precise relations between AQAP and other anti-Houthi elements, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the beleaguered government of internationally-recognized prime minister, Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Just as al-Qaeda's official affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, is being increasingly openly backed by Qatar and other Sunni-ruled countries against both the more extreme Islamic State and the country's Shi'a-led government, so it is possible that such countries may also seek to use AQAP against the Houthis in the coming months, particularly given the failure of either Hadi loyalists or airstrikes to dislodge the Houthis from the capital and other areas. Underlining the risk that Saudi Arabia, Hadi's internationally recognized government and other regional powers could begin working with AQAP is the fact that one member of Hadi's delegation to recent Geneva peace-talks was Abd al-Rahman al-Humayqani; al-Humayqani, in December 2013, was named a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the U.S. Treasury on account of his close links to AQAP (Middle East Eye, June 19). The U.S. government at the time said that "Humayqani was an important figure within AQAP and reportedly had a relationship with important AQAP leaders," and had "provided financial support and other services to AQAP and acted for or on behalf of the group," a view which it has not retracted (U.S. Treasury Department, December 18, 2013). A further indication of the potentially converging interests of Hadi, Saudi Arabia and AQAP occurred in Hadramawt province on June 20, when gunmen on motorbikes-a form of assassination previously used by AQAP-shot dead Hussein Abdul Bari al-Aidaroos, a popular and moderate Sunni imam from Shibam, who had been known as an outspoken critic of the Saudi airstrikes (Saba News, June 20). The above incidents underline that the present chaos in Yemen is creating complex and potentially dangerous new political realignments, not least because of the potential for the Western-backed government of Yemen, increasingly desperate to retake the capital from the firmly entrenched Houthis, to empower a newly resurgent AQAP, a bitter enemy of the Houthis, in order to do so.

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