Boko Haram Survives Regional Offensives and Strikes Back

Rumors of the demise of the Nigerian militant group Boko Haram appear to have been greatly exaggerated, as indicated by a series of fresh attacks by the organization in Nigeria and surrounding countries in recent weeks. On August 4, Boko Haram militants killed nine Nigerian fisherman on the shores of Lake Chad (Vanguard [Lagos], August 5). The Nigerian Army later claimed to have found and killed 13 of the attackers, as they sought to escape the area, and also captured an all-terrain vehicle used by the gunmen. On the same day, Boko Haram kidnapped an estimated 135 people around the village of Chakamari, in neighboring Cameroon (Vanguard [Lagos], August 5). In addition, earlier in July, a series of suicide attacks took place in Cameroon's Far North Region, close to the Nigerian border, killing around 50 people in total (Cameroon Tribune, July 15). These and other attacks in the region are believed to have killed around 800 people in the last two months (Vanguard [Lagos], August 5).

In response, the Nigerian authorities have continue to seek regional and international support against Boko Haram, while also continuing to pursue a military solution in northeast Nigeria, where Boko Haram activity is concentrated. In particular, Nigeria is pushing ahead with Chad, Cameroon and Niger with plans to create a 8,700-strong combined force to operate across the region's borders (The News Nigeria, July 30; BBC, July 29). Nigeria has also lobbied for the United States to lift its restrictions on military aid to Nigeria, imposed under the Leahy Law over concerns of human rights abuses, and has also sought foreign economic assistance to address chronic underinvestment in the country's northeast (News Agency of Nigeria, August 4; Daily Post [Lagos] August 5).

Accompanying this has been forceful public messaging by the Nigerian authorities, and particularly by the military, that the government has successfully put Boko Haram on the back foot. For instance, the authorities have recently claimed that a group within Boko Haram has reached out the government's Centre for Crisis Communication (CCC), requesting to open dialogue with a view to laying down their arms (Daily Post [Lagos], August 4). Claims of victory-or near victory-have also been widely touted by the military. "They [Boko Haram] are no longer looking for land to occupy. They are looking for soft targets," said the outgoing commander of the army's 2nd Division in one such recent statement (Vanguard [Lagos], August 4). This message was echoed by the army's retiring Chief of Staff, Lieutenant-General Kenneth Minimah, who said in a recent valedictory speech that he believed that the army's performance against Boko Haram had been previously been hampered by political infighting, but that the army's increased emphasis on enforcing discipline and cracking down on lax behavior, including through the use of courts martial, would bolster its fight against militants (This Day Live [Lagos], August 5).

In Cameroon, meanwhile, official responses have included increased security throughout the country, including in the south, at public gatherings and bars, and checks on the curriculum in religious schools have also been instituted (Cameroon Tribune, August 5). Security has also been increased in the eastern region, which has been less affected by Boko Haram so far, while a citizen-led sticker and poster campaign in the north has also taken place, to "sensitize public opinion that the danger is within us," in the words of one of its organizers (Cameroon Tribune, August 5; Cameroon Tribune, August 6). Chadian forces have also clashed with Boko Haram militants in recent weeks in the Lake Chad area, although without notably decisive results (Reuters, August 5).

Despite the above range of initiatives, however, Boko Haram attacks still continue to cause significant civilian casualties, and the group remains both stubbornly resilient and active in northeast Nigeria and the broader Lake Chad region. Nigeria's president, Muhammadu Buhari, perhaps buoyed by the recent optimistic statements by his army and government, has himself recently repeated earlier promises to eradicate the Boko Haram threat, even saying at one event in early August that "I assure you that we will defeat Boko Haram by the end of this year" (Vanguard [Lagos], August 2). Given Boko Haram's continued survival against the regional forces massing against it, however, such confidence appears sadly misplaced for now.