Kyrgyzstan: Opposition united, launches new attack at president

Daniel Sershen 2/23/07

The Kyrgyz opposition has unveiled a new umbrella movement, comprising supporters of former prime minister Feliks Kulov and most leaders of the For Reforms opposition coalition. The new organization, called the United Front for a Decent Future for Kyrgyzstan, announced it would seek the immediate resignation of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

"It has become clear to everyone that urgent systemic reform needs to begin with the head – that is, with the post of president," said the United Front in an announcement distributed February 19. It said Bakiyev had "lost his legitimacy" by dismissing Kulov and failing to deliver on promised reforms, including constitutional changes that were initially secured by the opposition in November 2006 only to be reversed by pro-Bakiyev lawmakers the next month. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The presidential press service said in a statement that the United Front's assertions had "no moral or, what is more, political basis," and added that such moves put Kyrgyzstan's future in jeopardy.

On February 20, the Kyrgyz government decided not to join the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, despite declaring in late 2006 an intention to do so. The program, which could have eliminated approximately half of Kyrgyzstan's $2 billion debt to international lenders, had provoked public opposition because its strict conditions were seen as a challenge to Kyrgyzstan's sovereignty. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Analysts say the gathering momentum of the political opposition, which had long opposed the HIPC, was a major reason behind the Bakiyev administration's abandonment of the debt-relief program. "In the end, the president decided not to take on this responsibility, since he understood that entering HIPC would place additional trump cards in the opposition's hands," said Tamerlan Ibraimov, Director of the Center for Political and Legal Studies in Bishkek.

Kulov's move into the opposition camp began when Bakiyev declined to re-nominate him for the prime minister's post after parliament had twice rejected his candidacy. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Bakiyev and Kulov, influential politicians from opposite sides of the country's North-South divide, had worked together for over a year, helping to preserve a sense of stability in the aftermath of former president Askar Akayev's unruly exit in March 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Emil Juraev, Deputy Director of the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, said Kulov's move into the opposition was motivated "equally by cold political calculation and emotional offense."

While he is an influential politician backed by a relatively strong party infrastructure, Kulov faces several obstacles in the way of his efforts to "unite and lead" the opposition, as he put it at a news conference on February 14. Although most key figures in the For Reforms coalition have voiced support for Kulov, several, including prominent MP Azimbek Beknazarov and civil society activist Tolekan Ismailova, have declined so far to join forces with him.

Some opposition leaders distrust Kulov, perceiving him to be a political opportunist. His abrupt political turnaround – from Bakiyev's political sidekick to an outspoken critic – is viewed as insincere in some opposition circles, according to Ibraimov. "His reputation has been tarnished by his policy of appeasement towards Bakiyev," he said.

Another blow against Kulov from the opposition's perspective was his support for HIPC, a stance he swiftly moved away from as soon as he lost the prime minister's seat.

Bakiyev also abandoned support for HIPC in a speech prior to the cabinet's vote on the issue. Although he took responsibility for repaying the debt, Bakiyev also criticized previous governments – Akayev's for amassing the debt and Kulov's for considering the HIPC program as a solution.

The only cabinet member to vote in favor of HIPC was Finance Minister Akylbek Zhaparov. "This is very telling," said Kemal Izmailov, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Analysis and Research. "He knows the financial situation in the country and knows the condition of the economy, and he saw in HIPC a way out." But for others, including the president and parliament, it became "a question of politics," Izmailov said.

Ibraimov agreed. "The HIPC issue was decided more from a populist perspective than via serious economic calculations," he said. "Bakiyev clearly changed his position on the subject; in the beginning he was for HIPC, then against."

In his speech, Bakiyev acknowledged that to pay back its debt without recourse to the HIPC program, Kyrgyzstan would need to live "strictly according to its means." His new prime minister, Azim Isabekov, laid out the specifics at the same meeting, according to news agency 24.kg. Repaying the debt, Isabekov said, would require an annual GDP growth rate of 8 percent, as well as a 20 percent increase in government revenues and a 10 percent cut in expenditures each year. (Kyrgyzstan's GDP growth in 2006 was below 3 percent.)

Considering these obstacles, the HIPC decision was clearly dictated in part by the political situation, Juraev said. But while the move has taken some of the wind out of the opposition's sails, it won't necessarily allow Kyrgyzstan to dodge further political conflict.

The opposition "states it will pursue only peaceful and lawful methods and not use violence," Juraev said. "But anything is possible, and it is very hard to control a situation when the temperature swells past the boiling point." Juraev stressed that he was expressing his own views, which do not necessarily represent those of the OSCE Academy.

Editor's Note: Daniel Sershen is a freelance journalist based in Bishkek.

Posted February 23, 2007 © Eurasianet