Central Asia: What chance for democracy?

Mevlut Katik 12/10/04

Nearly 13 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, prospects for democratic reform in Central Asia are disappearing, warned opposition leaders from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan at a recent conference in London.

Delegates to the "Democracy in Eurasia: How Far, How Fast?" gathering, co-organized on November 12 by the International Freedom Network (IFN), a democratic activist group for Central Asia, and the Foreign Policy Centre, a London-based think tank, described the region's governments as holdovers from the Soviet era – both in terms of personalities and outlook. The economic benefits from privatization, participants charged, have gone to those with ties to governments. Throughout the region, corruption is used to guarantee ongoing political loyalty. Political institutions remain underdeveloped, while legal systems and the media are used simply to reinforce the status quo, delegates said.

"After a decade of political stagnancy, Eurasia[‘s] people are tired of ageing leaderships, unfair elections and Soviet-style authoritarian systems," read a statement released at the conference by the IFN. "It is high time to help bring about real change."

Kazakhstan attracted the most attention from conference participants in this regard. Speaking at a conference panel, Kazakhstani opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbayev, co-founder of the centrist Ak Zhol party and a former information minister, stated that the government's victory in September's parliamentary elections meant alternative political voices now had little place in Kazakhstan. Ak Zhol and other opposition parties lost all representation in Kazakhstan's Majilis, or parliament, after Sarsenbayev refused to occupy the one seat secured by the opposition as a protest against voting irregularities. "The most recent election showed that we are now moving from an authoritarian regime to a totalitarian one," Sarsenbayev said.

In this context, delegates appeared to see the example of Ukraine as serving their cause. The recent public protests in Kiev against Ukraine's allegedly rigged Nov. 21 presidential vote could serve as a powerful warning for Central Asian governments who brush aside reformers, Sarsenbayev said. "Without a political struggle, there would be no political change in Kazakhstan as the current regime controls all aspects of life."

Other opposition members echoed that belief. Most of the 12 political parties and 500 non-governmental organizations that exist in Kazakhstan were registered by the government, some on the eve of this fall's parliamentary elections, and exist on paper only, charged Asylbek Kozhakhmetov, a founding member and chairman of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan Party.

A reformed Kazakhstan could set the model for the rest of the region, Sarsenbayev went on to say. The republic's oil wealth has made it Central Asia's largest economy, with considerable impact on the economic well-being of neighboring states. If Kazakhstan had consistently supported democratic reform since the early 1990s, he added, the rest of Central Asia could have followed suit.

"Consolidation of authoritarianism in Kazakhstan has led to similar chain reaction in other parts of the region. If modernization were to develop along positive lines, Kazakhstan would have had a very strong economy and would have led an economic success that erased the poverty gap," he said. "This would have activated political processes within the region."

But other opposition figures see the country's economic boom as a mixed blessing. Serikbolsyn Abdilidin, leader of Kazakhstan's Communist Party, took issue with foreign policymakers' tendency of "settling all issues with oil." Representatives of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan claimed that oligarchs have already pocketed the bulk of Kazahstan's energy income.

Responding to the criticism, Kazakhstan's UK Ambassador Erlan Idrissov faulted the conference for failing to include representatives of Central Asian governments and labelled the criticisms raised as "stereotypes." The investigation and house arrest of DCK leader Galymzhan Zhakiyanov – one of the complaints raised by Kazakhstani delegates – would continue, Idrissov stated, but argued that the opposition leader's security was guaranteed by living in a residence registered with authorities. "[D]ifferent parts of the Soviet Union took their own path and produced different results," Idrissov went on to say. "They are judged by the facts. [The] success rate for Kazakhstan is a fact. [The] birth of political activity exists and is a positive development."

Representatives of other Central Asian opposition movements also expressed strong doubts about the development of democracy in the region. The crackdown against suspected Islamic fundamentalists that followed explosions in Tashkent in March and July 2004 has put Uzbekistan on the road to "Turkmenistanization," commented Alisher Ilkhamov, former director of Open Society Institute Uzbekistan. (EurasiaNet is run under the auspices of the Open Society Institute.) "We witness the violation of freedom of movement, entrepreneurship and liberties, " he said. The erosion of Uzbekistan's social contract, Ilkhamov continued, has created an "atmosphere of intimidation" akin to "controlled terrorism."

If Turkmenistan is meant as Uzbekistan's model, chances for disparate political views will remain few, said one representative of the Turkmen opposition in exile. Under the iron-fisted rule of Turkmen President Saparmurat "Turkmenbashi" Niyazov, the country's opposition has been forced to leave the country. Diana Laipnice, a member of the IFN, told EurasiaNet that the oil-rich state's opposition has lobbied for countries to implement targeted sanctions against Turkmenistan and to refuse visas for Turkmen officials travelling abroad.

In Kyrgyzstan, once seen as a bastion of democratic reform in Central Asia, government harassment has also prompted many opposition members to emigrate, Talay Aitmambetov, a representative of the Kyrgyzstani opposition party Ar-Namys, told the conference. Aitmambetov took issue with the imprisonment of party founder Feliks Kulov, a former vice-president of Kyrgyzstan, saying that Kulov has still not received a "fair and just" hearing. Party members, he said, are "widely persecuted" for their support of Kulov and opposition to President Askar Akayev "through dismissal from jobs, and in the most extreme cases, false imprisonment and threats of detention and against their lives."

Meanwhile, to move Central Asia's opposition groups from rhetoric to action, plans for a "Commonwealth of Independent States Union of Democratic Forces" were also announced. "The disastrous state of governance in these countries calls for an active civil response by all democratically-minded citizens, political parties and organisations – a consolidation of democratic forces across the whole post-Soviet region," read a statement released by the Union. A founding conference has been scheduled for February or March 2005.

Editor's Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist group.

Posted December 10, 2004 © Eurasianet