Zambia: Dangerous divisions in the ruling party

LUSAKA, 3 September 2008 (IRIN) - Analysts expect the funeral of President Levy Mwanawasa to herald the onset of a divisive political campaign ahead of presidential elections that have to be held within three months of the Zambian leader's death.

Mwanawasa, who was also chairman of the 14-member state Southern African Development Community, died in a Paris clinic on 19 August after suffering a stroke on the eve of the African Union summit in Egypt on 29 June. The official mourning period ends on 9 September.

In September 2006 Mwanawasa secured a second five-year term of office, after beating rival Michael Sata in a bitter contest and setting off widespread post-election violence between the security forces and Sata's supporters.

The Zambian constitution, which is under review, requires presidential elections to be held within 90 days of the death of a sitting president and the electoral commission is expected to announce the poll date soon after Mwanawasa's burial.

However, the newly elected president will hold office until 2011, when Mwanawasa's five-year term was due to expire, and another ballot will be held to coincide with parliamentary elections.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has begun delivering ballot boxes to the rural areas of Zambia's 73 districts, while donor countries such as the United Kingdom and the US have pledged financial assistance in the election process.

Stainley Mhango, president of the Foundation for Democratic Process, an election monitoring body, told IRIN: "In terms of administration of elections, the ECZ are independent, but our concerns come in when it comes to transmitting and declaring the results."

He said these issues "were quite problematic. We had a lot of mis-postings, which created a concern."

A son of Africa

Mwanawasa's funeral, on the day he would have celebrated his 60th birthday, has been declared a public holiday in perpetuity, although his untimely demise two years after his re-election has provided no obvious successor in the ruling party.

"There is a lot of wrangling and in-fighting for the presidency, especially in the [ruling] MMD [Movement for Multiparty Democracy]. The internal wangles in the MMD are creating tension in the country, and this existence of strong factions in the party is a recipe for corruption," Reuben Lifuka, president of the Zambian chapter of the anti-corruption watchdog, Transparency International, told IRIN.

"There is so much exchange of bitter words among the competitors [in the ruling party], and this is not good for the general peace in the country. They should put aside their personal interests and put the interests of the country first," he said.

Mwanawasa's coffin toured the provinces for two weeks prior to his burial in an attempt, according to some analysts, to garner support for the ruling party and provide time to decide on a successor.

Mwanawasa froze the post of vice-president at the party's national convention ahead of the 2006 elections, after it became apparent that most of the candidates vying for the position opposed his presidential bid on health grounds. Mwanawasa survived a near-fatal car accident in the early 1990s.

Among the thousands gathered for the funeral in the capital, Lusaka, were the region's heads of states, and current SADC chairman and South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

"We remember his contribution to deepening democracy in the region ... [and his commitment] to accelerate infrastructure development in the region. It is indeed appropriate and befitting to this son of Africa that we signed the SADC Treaty [on a Free Trade Area] this year [which was spearheaded during Mwanawasa's term as SADC chair]," Mbeki said in his eulogy.

Zambia's acting president, Rupiah Banda, said at the funeral that "Under his [Mwanawasa's] strong leadership the country has experienced strong fiscal discipline, our economy is today growing for Zambia to become a middle-income country by 2030."

The ruling party has received 17 applications for its presidential nomination, including from Banda, finance minister Ng'andu Magande, health minister Brian Chituwo and home affairs minister Ronnie Shikapwasha, as well as Mwanawasa's former vice-presidents Nevers Mumba and Enoch Kavindele.

The National Executive Committee, the ruling party's top decision-making body, is expected to assess all applications and announce the nomination on Saturday, although the contest is viewed as a two-horse race between Banda and Magande.

Ruling party divisions

Magande's supporters claim he was the late president's favoured successor, even though Mwanawasa never publicly endorsed a successor. Mwanawasa's widow, Maureen Mwanawasa, has told local media that her husband left a video explaining why Magande was to be his "anointed" successor. The first lady said the tape was in the custody of family lawyers and she was negotiating with the state broadcaster for it to be televised nationally.

Banda's support for the nomination has been endorsed by the party's leadership in seven of the country's nine provinces, including Magande's home base, Southern Province. Banda's supporters claim he would unite the party, though his critics perceive him as a political outsider and that his being born in neighbouring Zimbabwe could become a divisive election issue.

"Clearly, the MMD is in a catch-22 situation: on one hand they want to continue with Levy's [Mwanawasa's] legacy, which is why they are binding themselves to what could have been his wish for a successor, and on the other hand they are trying to prove themselves as a democratic party that upholds the wish of the majority," Lee Habasonda, executive director of the Southern African Centre for Constructive Resolution of Disputes (SACCORD), a regional good governance and human rights watchdog, told IRIN.

"It all depends on how they are going to handle this succession issue, and the opposition are waiting strategically. Obviously, if they [MMD] don't handle this succession issue properly ... they risk becoming the opposition themselves."

Opposition party on the rise

If the ruling party is unable to reconcile its differences, it would be to the benefit of Sata, leader of the Patriotic Front (PF) and a veteran of the governments of both the founding president Kenneth Kaunda and his successor Frederick Chiluba, who is on trial for corruption. 

In the bitterly contested 2006 election, Sata made Mwanawasa's ill-health a major campaign issue. The 71-year-old President suffered heart problems earlier this year and received medical treatment for his condition in South Africa. Sata also railed against Chinese investment in Zambia, especially in the mining sector, and alleged that Chinese employers paid local employees poorly.

Sata is an enthusiastic supporter of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's polices, while Mwanawasa was a fierce critic of Mugabe and described Zimbabwe under his rule as a "sinking titanic".

Although Mwanawasa secured 42 percent of the presidential poll against Sata's 29 percent, the PF won all urban parliamentary seats in the capital, Lusaka, and the country's economic heartland, Copperbelt Province.

The United Party for National Development has announced that its leader, businessman Hakainde Hichilema, who came third in the 2006 general election with 28 percent of the vote, is to contest the election.

nm/go/he