Inter-ethnic suspicion continues to hamper Afghan stabilization efforts

Camelia Entekhabi-Fard 1/13/04

Any sense of optimism generated by the adoption of a new constitution in Afghanistan may prove short-lived. Continued instability and inter-ethnic suspicion are raising doubt about the ability of Afghan officials to keep to a transition timetable that envisions a presidential election this summer.

Interim President Hamid Karzai has signaled his intention to press ahead with the election in mid-2004. US officials have also expressed a strong desire to adhere to Afghanistan's reconstruction blueprint, drawn up at the Bonn conference in 2002.

On January 10, soon after the adoption of Afghanistan's new constitution at an often contentious loya jirga, Karzai declared that he would be a candidate for president. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The new constitution establishes a strong presidency, and enshrines equal rights for men and women.

United Nations officials and independent experts suggested that logistical difficulties will require the postponement of the presidential poll. One UN official pointed to voter registration rolls, which show that only a tiny fraction of Afghanistan‘s potential electorate has registered to vote.

Barnett Rubin, the director of studies at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University and a constitutional adviser to the Afghan government, indicated that lawlessness is also a major obstacle. A statement issued by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations cited Rubin as saying that September was the earliest realistic date for the election.

Afghanistan remains unquestionably an unstable place. Attacks mounted by al Qaeda loyalists against government forces are continuing. At the same time, officials in Kabul are struggling to curtail the influence of regional warlords.

Government attempts to build security capacity seem to be flagging. According to a January 12 report published by the Australian Broadcasting Corp., up to a third of the estimated 10,000 troops in the Afghan national army have deserted.

Even if the election date is pushed back, many Afghan observers question whether the vote will succeed in promoting stability. They add that inter-ethnic suspicion remains strong, despite the fact that representatives from across Afghanistan's broad ethnic spectrum achieved constitutional comprise at the loya jirga

There remains a strong sense among the country's main groups – southern-based Pashtuns and northern groups, including Tajiks and Uzbeks – that regional interests should take precedence over an attempt to forge a pan-Afghan identity.

The loya jirga's chairman, Sebaghatullah Mojadedi, said ethnic disputes "greatly frustrated" the constitutional process. After delegates voted to adopt the constitution, Mojadedi told EurasiaNet that the national law had come together because "people seeking national unity very generously sacrificed their interests."

Only last-minute deals, under which smaller ethnic groups obtained increased rights and privileges, made ratification of the new constitution possible. Among the conciliatory provisions was one making Uzbek a state language alongside Pashto and Dari.

Despite the moves to bolster the rights of minority groups, many prominent politicians say the constitution is seriously flawed. For example, many Tajiks and Uzbeks are concerned that, if elected, Karzai, who is Pashtun, will seek to primarily defend the interests of his own ethnic group.

"This Jirga showed that we still have ethnic issues," says Habibeh Amin, a delegate from Kabul. "We can clearly see that Pashtun people want to take over this constitution.... The national anthem is a Pashtun hymn. The first language is Pashto, then Dari. They may not say that the president should be Pashtun but they won't accept any others. So what is our right? Why didn't they call [slain former Northern Alliance commander and ethnic Tajik] Ahmed Shah Massoud a national hero? Because he was not Pashtun!" [For background on Massoud, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Meanwhile, some Pashtuns expressed anger over the perceived hijacking of the constitutional process by northern minority groups. Daoud Arsala, brother of the late anti-Taliban fighter Abdul Haq, declared himself "strongly against" official status for Uzbek. He also chided the effort by some delegates to forbid cabinet ministers with dual citizenship. Many delegates sought to ban dual nationals from the cabinet, a step that would have disqualified several of Karzai's current ministers. In the end, parliament effectively reserved the right to vote on the appointment of such ministers. Arsala insisted that the government needed whatever talent it could find and chided "upset" Tajiks for making the issue adversarial.

A European diplomat who asked for anonymity said he expects ethnic discord to again become a serious issue. "I believe this Jirga showed that there is still a large gap among delegates," the diplomat said.

Editor's Note: Camelia Entekhabi-Fard, a specialist in Iranian and Afghan political affairs, covered the Constitutional Loya Jirga from Kabul for EurasiaNet.

Editor's Note: Camelia Entekhabi-Fard is a specialist on Iranian and Afghan affairs and is a frequent contributor to EurasiaNet.

Posted January 13, 2004 © Eurasianet