Assessment for Crimean Russians in Ukraine

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Crimean Russians exhibit a moderate risk for rebellion in the near future. Their high levels of cohesion and organization (COHESX9 = 5; GOJPA00 = 3) and consistent protest are factors that contribute to this risk. However, levels of protest have been slowly declining. Also, the high degree of autonomy granted to the Crimean government by Ukraine has alleviated some grievances. Furthermore, while there is some sentiment in both Russia and Crimea for Russia's annexation of Crimea, it is unlikely that Russia's central government will pursue this goal. Furthermore, Crimean Russians are subject to very little governmental repression and to less societal discrimination (due to their being a majority) than their ethnic kin elsewhere in Ukraine.

Ethnic Russians in Crimea are likely to continue to protest at moderate levels. There is little indication that the central government is going to change unfavorable policies (e.g. state-level language laws and policies regarding Tatar immigration) in the near future.

The highest risk for violence in Crimea is between ethnic Russian and Tatar groups. Political agitation on the part of both groups has been sustained in recent years (GCC198-03 = 2), and limited incidents of violence have occurred sporadically in previous years. With the increase of the Tatar population (and hence increased pressure on the Russian population and on economic resources), these incidences are likely to increase, barring more vigorous intervention by the central government or other actors.

Analytic Summary

PLEASE NOTE: The Minorities at Risk Project treats Russians in Crimea separately from other Russians in Ukraine . This is because Crimea holds constitutional autonomy within the Ukrainian state, which leads to differential treatment of Russians. Additionally, the political situation of ethnic Russians in the Crimea, where they constitute approximately 64 percent of the population, is markedly different from the political situation of ethnic Russians in the remainder of the Ukraine, where they constitute approximately 19 percent of the population. For additional information on ethnic Russians outside Crimea, see the file "Russians in Ukraine."

Russian armies first invaded the Crimean peninsula in 1736, and in 1783 Catherine II annexed the peninsula. This began a period of Russian and Slavic immigration to the peninsula and Tatar emigration. After the Bolshevik revolution, Crimea briefly became independent, but was soon occupied by German forces. In 1921, it was annexed to the Soviet Union as the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. During World War II, it was occupied again by German forces. The composition of the population was altered dramatically at the end of the war, when Stalin deported almost the entire Crimean Tatar population (resident on the peninsula since the 15th century) to parts of Central Asia. The end of the war also saw Crimea incorporated in the Russian SSR. In 1954, the peninsula was transferred to Ukraine. In 1989, Crimean Tatars were allowed to begin returning to the peninsula.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia and Ukraine engaged in intense negotiations over the status of Crimea. In 1992, the Russian-dominated government made an abortive attempt to declare independence. In Crimea, irredentism is strong among the Russians owing to the overwhelming majority of Russians there and the relatively strong historical link between Crimea and Russia. Most Russians in Crimea identify themselves not with Ukraine, Crimea, or even Russia, but with the Soviet Union. Many are veterans of the Soviet military and wish to go back to the simpler and more secure days of Soviet rule. However, their current identification falls more closely with the military and political successor to the USSR, Russia, than with Ukraine. Politicians in Russia who regularly call for Crimea to rejoin Russia nurture this attitude.

Ethnic Russians in Crimea have a strong sense of identity (COHESX9 = 5) and are politically organized (GOJPA98 = 2; GOJPA00-03 =3). Since Ukrainian independence, they have also consistently mobilized to protest, in particular in opposition to remedial policies in place for Crimean Tatars (PROT90X = 4; PROT98X = 3; PROT99-02 = 2, PROT02-03 = 3). In addition to autonomy grievances (AUTGR403 = 1), ethnic Russians also agitate for increased communal rights (POLGR203 = 1) and for increased cultural rights, particularly in regards to language (CULGR303 = 3; CULGR403 = 2).

Crimean Russians find themselves not only in conflict with the central government of Ukraine but also with Crimean Tatars who have returned in significant numbers from Central Asia. Ethnic Russians feel threatened by the religious (Islamic) traditions of most Tatars and by their higher birthrates (which many Russians fear could, in time, reduce them to a minority). One result of such fears has been violence between the two groups, particularly as Russians have sought in some instances to limit Tatar access to housing, land and jobs. However, recently, intercommunal conflict between these two groups has not turned violent and remains at the level of political agitation (GCC199-03 = 2). Ethnic Russians also vociferously objected to former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma's recommendation that Tatars be guaranteed representation in the Crimean government.

References

Allworth, Edward, ed., Tatars of the Crimea (Durham, NC: Duke Univ. Press, 1988).

BBC Summary of World Broadcasts.

C. I. A., The CIA World Factbook, 1993.

"Crimea: History" The Columbia Encyclopedia, Fifth Edition 1995. Columbia University Press.

Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press.

Fisher, Alan, The Crimean Tatars (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institute Press, 1978).

Lexis-Nexis: All News Files 1997 - 2003.

RFE/RL Daily Reports 1997-2003.

Reuter's Textline.

Seymore II, Bruce, ed., ACCESS Guide to Ethnic Conflicts in Europe and the Former Soviet Union (Washington, DC: ACCESS, 1994).

Stewart, Susan, "The Tatar Dimension." RFE/RL Research Reports 3(19): 22-26 (13 May 1994).

Subtelny, Orest, Ukraine: A History (Buffalo, NY: Univ. of Toronto Press, 1988).

Svetova, Svetlana and Roman Solchanyk, "Chronology of Events in Crimea." RFE/RL Research Reports 3(19): 27-33 (13 May 1994).

"Crimea: Tatar Kinder." The Economist 331(7863): 53-54 (14 May 1994).

U. S. Department of State, "Human Rights Report on Ukraine" 1993, 2000-2003

Viets, Susan, "The Crimean Tatars: Exiles' Return." Index on Censorship 22(3): 21 (March 1993).

Young, Stephen W., Ronald J. Bee, and Bruce Seymore II, One Nation Becomes Many: The ACCESS Guide to the Former Soviet Union (Washington, DC: ACCESS, 1992).