Global Overview 2015: People internally displaced by conflict and violence - East Africa

Figures and causes of displacement

As of December 2014, there were up to 1.9 million IDPs in east Africa, spread across Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The overall figure represents little change from 2013. Somalia continues to host by far the largest displaced population in the region with 1.1 million IDPs,^[96] followed by Ethiopia with 397,200^[97] and Kenya with 309,200.^[98]

At least 446,250 people were newly displaced across the region during the year. As in 2013, new displacements only took place in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, which continue to be affected by violence and conflict. No new displacement was reported in Eritrea, Uganda or Zimbabwe. The overall figure is an increase of more than 132,400 on 2013, a significant spike in Kenya outstripping a decrease in Ethiopia.

More than 220,000 people fled their homes in Kenya in 2014,^[99] compared with 55,000 in 2013,^[100] mainly as a result of inter-communal violence. The northern pastoralist areas of the country were particularly affected. Many of the new IDPs reportedly returned, but others remained in displacement, either living with host communities or in camps. Inter-communal violence was also the main driver of new displacement in Ethiopia, where 137,100 people fled their homes as a result of clashes between different clans.^[101] The majority were living in the country's Somali region.

Somalia has the longest-running displacement situation in east Africa, and at least 89,000 people were newly displaced during 2014, representing a slight increase on 2013. Most fled an offensive launched by the Somali military and the AU mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to counter the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab, which has taken control of large parts of the country. Around 73,000 people fled their homes during the first phase of the op- eration in March 2014, and nearly 7,500 people were displaced during the second phase in mid-August and September.^[102] Inter-communal violence was also a major destabilising factor during the year. Clashes between clans took place in several parts of the country, leading to the displacement of at least 9,000 people.^[103]

Displacement figures in east Africa and Zimbabwe come with many caveats. The figure of 1.1 million IDPs in Somalia, for example, is a static estimate in a context that often changes rapidly, and in a society whose populations are traditionally highly mobile. The data behind the estimate comes from humanitarians' project-based assessments and registration activities, meaning it was collected for limited purposes and geographical coverage and using different methodologies. Many only assign people status as IDPs based on their presence at displacement sites, meaning there is little or no information on those living in more dispersed settings. Access to some parts of the country is difficult, as is distinguishing between voluntary and forced movements.

Stakeholders acknowledge that the figure is outdated and in need of revision, and in 2014 JIPS supported profiling exercises in Hargeisa and Mogadishu. Once findings are available, they will be used to inform a comprehensive durable solutions strategy and may affect the overall estimate of the number of IDPs in the country.

Kenya also lacks comprehensive and up-to-date data on displacement. The most recent informed estimate of 309,200 IDPs, provided by OCHA in December 2014, refers mostly to people displaced by political violence related to elections between 1992 and 2008. Over the years, many have integrated locally, settled elsewhere in the country or returned to their places of origin, but there has been no official assessment of their number or their outstanding protection needs. OCHA's figure does not include displaced pastoralists or those who took refuge from political violence outside camps and sites. Nor does it include those newly displaced since 2008.

Eritrea, Uganda and Zimbabwe have relatively small numbers of IDPs living in protracted displacement. In the absence of updated information, figures for the three countries are unchanged from 2013. In Zimbabwe, the only figures available are estimates based on past needs assessments. OCHA reported in 2009 that there were 36,000 IDPs as a result of violence associated with the 2008 elections, but anecdotal sources put the number much higher. Most are thought to have been able to return home. OCHA's figure does not include people displaced by causes other than conflict and violence, among them government policies and actions that have caused displacement since 2000.

Many forms of violence forced people to flee their homes in east Africa in 2014, including armed conflict and struggles for political power. Two other drivers, intercommunal violence and the activities of extremist groups, were also prevalent across various countries and often affected the same areas.

The inter-communal violence comes as no surprise, given there are at least 160 different ethnic groups in the region. Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda are also home to one of the world's largest populations of pastoralists, who live in areas where other livelihoods are barely viable. Violence is often triggered by competition over increasingly scarce resources such as land and water, cattle rustling, revenge attacks, border disputes and struggles for political representation. The displacement of pastoralists, which is intrinsically linked to their inability to access land and resources and their loss of livestock and markets, is particularly relevant to this region.

Violence associated with political and religious extremists is not new, but displacement caused by it, or the threat of it, appears to be increasing. Kenya has been subjected to a growing number of attacks, including the 2013 assault on Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi in which at least 67 people were killed and 175 injured. Sev- eral attacks on civilians caused displacement in 2014, including in Mandera and Lamu counties. According to diplomats and security analysts, Islamists operating in Kenya's Coast region are thought to have tapped into local grievances about issues such as tenure insecurity, poverty and unemployment.

Ethiopia also faces the threat of extremist attacks, in large part because Ethiopian troops fight alongside forces from Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya and Uganda as part of AMISOM's efforts to counter al-Shabaab in Somalia. Continuing armed struggles for self-determination in the Somali and Oromia regions of the country also have the potential to cause future displacement.

Al-Shabaab has suffered military and territorial losses, but it remains the principal threat to peace and security in Somalia and throughout the Horn of Africa. It has managed to maintain a violent foothold in Mogadishu and has demonstrated its operational reach beyond the capital by carrying out fatal assaults in southern and central Somalia, and inspiring coordinated attacks against the country's neighbours.

Somalia's government confronted many challenges in 2014 as it sought to consolidate the country's federal structure in the face of continuing pressures for regional autonomy. Attacks on civilians that caused displacement were also reported in the north-eastern region of Sool, which is particularly prone to conflict given competing claims by Somaliland, Puntland and Khatumo to oil-rich territory. Khatumo is a political organisation pursuing the creation of a regional state separate from Somaliland.

Protection issues

IDPs' living conditions varied widely across the region in 2014, depending on the cause and length of their displacement. Their needs ranged from emergency humanitarian assistance to interventions aimed at the achievement of durable solutions.

Increasing insecurity and new cycles of conflict led to the targeting of civilians, sexual and other gender-based violence and the forced recruitment and abuse of children, particularly in southern and central Somalia. IDPs were particularly vulnerable to such violations. All parties to the conflict al-Shabaab, AMISOM, the Somali armed forces and others – are said to be perpetrators. Forced evictions in Mogadishu also made the dire protection and humanitarian situation of thousands of IDPs worse. Newly displaced IDPs in areas of Ethiopia and Kenya affected by conflict reportedly had unmet protection needs.

Food insecurity is a serious concern across east Africa, and particularly for IDPs. The Somali government declared drought in seven regions of the country in 2014, and the lack of rainfall and lower agricultural yields combined with rising food prices, the impact of conflict and a shortage of funding make the situation in the country particularly concerning. AlShabaab has consistently denied humanitarian access to people in areas under its control and restricted the movement of people and goods into government-held areas, putting civilian lives at risk. Some surveys suggest that Somali IDPs have the highest rates of severe acute malnutrition in the country, and that the death rate among displaced children under five in Mogadishu is six times the average.

In Kenya, localised clashes such as those in Marsabit and Turkana counties disrupted markets and with it access to supplies, heightening food insecurity for both IDPs and the general population. Overcrowding and unhygienic conditions were widespread in many of Kenya's and Somalia's displacement camps, increasing the risk of outbreaks and the spread of diseases such as cholera, diarrhoea and malaria.

The majority of the region's IDPs struggle to access basic services, including healthcare and education. Poverty and the fact that facilities are few and far between are significant impediments. Even when governments offer free primary education, as in Kenya, Somaliland and Uganda, hidden costs such as materials and transport, and the need for children to contribute to their household's income prevent many from attending school. Prolonged conflict and protracted displacement make school enrolment rates in Somalia among the world's lowest. Displaced children, particularly girls, are less likely to attend school than other Somalis.

Durable solutions

Concerted humanitarian, development and peace-building efforts are required across the region if IDPs are to achieve durable solutions to their displacement. A shortage of livelihood opportunities is one of the most significant obstacles they face.

In the Acholi region of northern Uganda, where the vast majority of IDPs returned and farming is the main potential source of income, most were only able to produce enough to subsist on. In Kenya, most displaced farmers were forced to leave all their belongings behind when they fled, preventing them from practicing their traditional livelihoods either during their displacement or when they returned or resettled. Livelihood opportunities across the region are closely linked to access to land, a fact particularly true for displaced pastoralists, who require special attention if they are to achieve durable solutions.

In Zimbabwe, poor tenure security and lack of access to civil registration and documentation are major obstacles for a significant number of IDPs, both to their achievement of durable solutions and access to essential services. In Uganda and Kenya the legal system governing land is complex, and Somalia has no written land law or policy at all. Such factors, combined with the high number of disputes resulting from large-scale displacement and return, hamper the determination of tenure rights and compensation.

The ongoing conflict in Somalia, insecurity and tensions in parts of Kenya and Ethiopia, and the damage and destruction of housing and infrastructure in affected areas also impede IDPs' efforts to bring their displacement to a sustainable end.

Durable solutions were supported through various initiatives in 2014. In parts of Puntland and Somaliland that are relatively stable, local authorities continued to work with international agencies to support local integration by facilitating access to land and improving living conditions. In southern and central Somalia, 18,200 IDPs had reportedly returned to their places of origin by the end of the year. Humanitarians continued to assist returns through the Return Consortium, a multi-agency initiative. Questions remain, however, about their sustainability.

In Ethiopia, IOM recorded the return of 123,500 IDPs in 2014 using its displacement tracking matrix. Intentions surveys were also carried out in Harari and Somali regional states. In Somali, a working group was set up to produce a durable solutions strategy. As of December, its draft was in the process of being endorsed by the regional government.

In Kenya, areas where return is possible in both the short and longer term need to be identified as a matter of urgency. Other settlement options also need to be considered for IDPs unable or unwilling to go back to their former homes and livelihoods. Reconciliation is crucial to resolving displacement caused by violence and conflict, but initiatives at the grassroots level were worryingly absent in 2014, even in areas where IDPs had already returned or resettled.

National and international response

Some progress was made in responding to displacement from a legal and policy perspective in 2014. In October, Somalia's federal government adopted a policy framework on displacement, and in December it established an agency for refugees and IDPs responsible for its implementation. Puntland adopted policy guidelines on IDPs in 2012, and Somaliland developed a draft policy framework in 2014, but it was still to be adopted as of the end of the year.

The efficacy of such initiatives will hinge on their implementation, which requires a functional government focal point to lead and oversee the process, coordinate among stakeholders and ensure the necessary human and financial resources. Without such efforts, the best intentions on paper will not translate in effective action on the ground.

Kenya developed a comprehensive draft policy and adopted an Act on IDPs in 2012, but as of the end of 2014 it had made little progress either in moving the policy beyond the draft stage or in implementing the Act. In Zimbabwe, findings from an earlier rapid assessment to determine the scope of displacement were not released in 2014, and plans for an update and a nationwide quantitative survey have not moved forward.

There were no new ratifications of the Kampala Convention in east Africa in 2014. Somalia ratified it internally in 2013, but has not yet registered the fact with the AU. Zimbabwe is still to incorporate its provisions into domestic law, but in December 2014 representatives of ministries, humanitarian agencies, civil society organisations and displaced communities took part in a workshop to identify steps towards doing so.

From an operational perspective, responses differed from country to country, but they share some common threads. IDPs living outside camps, who often constitute the vast majority, are largely invisible throughout the region, meaning they tend not to be included in data collection exercises and in turn may be excluded from protection and assistance. This is a significant issue in Somalia and Kenya, and has been in Uganda as well.

Insecurity, poor infrastructure and vast distances to cover continue to make humanitarian access difficult in areas affected by conflict and violence in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. Larger parts of Somalia opened up in 2014, but the quality and sustainability of access got worse in many places as result of deteriorating security and intensified conflict. The government resumed control of some urban areas as a result of its offensive against al-Shabaab, but access and supply lines are still highly vulnerable to attack. Towns the rebels have laid siege to are only accessible by air, and providing assistance in many rural areas remains extremely difficult.

Humanitarian funding for Somalia was critically low throughout the year. The UN's humanitarian coordinator for the country blamed competing global crises, growing needs but static funding levels and a shift from a humanitarian to a political agenda among donors.^[104]

In Kenya, assistance and donor attention continued to decline despite ongoing displacement. Several civil society organisations that have played a major role in protecting and assisting IDPs for many years have been left with very limited funding to continue their work. The Kenya Red Cross Society is usually the first responder to a crisis, but the deteriorating security situation and burgeoning number of IDPs in the north of the country put significant strain on its resources and demanded concerted efforts from all stakeholders.

In Ethiopia, the government and its humanitarian partners work jointly to provide emergency assistance to people affected by conflict and disasters, including IDPs.

There continues to be a significant need for development and peace-building partners to become involved in addressing displacement in east Africa. As it has done in the past, the Kenyan government's response to violence in 2014 focussed on enforcing security, to the detriment of other areas such as peacebuilding and social cohesion programmes.

In Somalia, long-term efforts to shore up and stabilise the state are critical to IDPs' being able to achieve durable solutions. As such, displacement issues should be incorporated into development, peacebuilding and state-building efforts. The implementation of the New Deal compact constitutes an opportunity to do so, and in 2014 the international community pushed for IDPs' durable solutions to be included in its provisions. Sustained advocacy will be needed to make it happen.

96 UNHCR, Operational Update, 22 December 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/12Hyke

97 IOM, Internal Displacement Monitoring Reports January – December 2014

98 OCHA, Eastern Africa: Regional Humanitarian Snapshot, 9 December 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/gwO7xv

99 OCHA, Kenya: Inter-communal conflict by county (January November 2014), 4 December 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/CMWRmC

100 OCHA, Kenya: Inter-communal conflict by district (January December 2013), 30 January 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/t5XOiv

101 IOM, Internal Displacement Monitoring Reports January – December 2014

102 OCHA, Somalia Humanitarian Bulletin, 17 October 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/SqRiXn

103 UNHCR, Fact Sheet September 2014, 31 October 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/mUBAeS

104 Reuters, Waiting for another famine declaration in Somalia will be too late U.N., 19 May 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/aRjULz