Kazakhstan's political parties gear up for early elections

Joanna Lillis 6/20/07

Kazakhstan's political parties are gearing up for early parliamentary elections. Under a new, constitutionally mandated election format, opposition politicians stand to gain seats in the new legislature. But observers are convinced that pro-presidential forces will remain in firm control of the legislature.

President Nursultan Nazarbayev dissolved parliament on June 20 and scheduled a special vote for August 18. Early elections are needed to break a constitutional conundrum. Under amendments approved in May, changes in the legislature's authority cannot take effect until a fresh body of deputies is elected according to the new proportional representation system. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Kazakhstan's administration says the president is ceding powers to parliament and creating a presidential-parliamentary republic; critics attack the reform as cosmetic.

"[Parliament is] in the situation of a person with one leg on one riverbank and the other on the other bank.... It has to dissolve," Alikhan Baymenov, the leader of the Ak Zhol party, told EurasiaNet. In the 2004 parliamentary election, Baymenov was the only the opposition politician to win a seat in the legislature, and he refused to take up his parliamentary mandate until late last year. At that time, he justified his action by stating, "A consensus between elites is ... the basis on which a flourishing and strong country can be built." Observers now see Baymenov as generally pro-presidential in orientation. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Under the May constitutional amendments, an extra 30 deputies will be elected to the next parliament, or Mazhilis, bringing the total to 107. Ninety-eight will be elected by proportional representation, with nine seats reserved for the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan, an umbrella grouping of ethnic minorities.

The opposition is expected to gain from change to a proportional representation format. "If the opposition can get themselves organized and registered, I think they do stand a chance of winning some seats in parliament," said Rico Isaacs, a political scientist from Oxford Brookes University who is in Kazakhstan researching political parties.

Even if opposition members make gains, pro-presidential forces, in particular the Nur Otan Party, are expected to dominate the voting. "There is no doubt that the Nur Otan Party will gain a majority of seats – both from the party-list elections, and from the MPs delegated to the Mazhilis from the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan," said Anuar Ayazbekov, research fellow at the Institute for Economic Strategies-Central Asia.

"Such a short period of time before new elections will give more opportunities to pro-state parties to [campaign], Ayazbekov continued. "Opposition parties will have very little time to re-group and start agitation."

Some suggest that Nur Otan – which comprises an estimated 1 million members after swallowing smaller parties in recent months – has already been campaigning. "On all [television] channels there is direct advertising of the Nur Otan Party – this is preparation for parliamentary elections," complained Alga! Party leader Asylbek Kozhakhmetov.

The new election format bars the formation of temporary election blocs and mandates that a particular political party receive at least 7 percent of the vote to gain representation in parliament. To counter the inherent advantages enjoyed by pro-presidential forces, two moderate opposition parties – Nagyz Ak Zhol and the National Social Democratic Party (NSDP) announced a merger on June 11. "Our strength is in unity. Only as a monolithic organization will we be able to gain power," NSDP leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay – the main challenger to Nazarbayev in the 2005 presidential election – told a news conference.

The merger is about "consolidating the whole democratic opposition", Nagyz Ak Zhol co-leader Tulegen Zhukeyev said. However, the more radical Alga! Party declined to join the merger – and is unlikely to be able to stand in elections since it is not officially registered. Meanwhile, the Ak Zhol party is unlikely to be invited to join the grand opposition coalition. Nagyz Ak Zhol split acrimoniously from Ak Zhol in 2005 following disagreements about engagement with the administration. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some observers say the left-leaning NSDP and the right-leaning Nagyz Ak Zhol form an awkward tandem, adding that the new party may have trouble cobbling together a platform that can attract a large share of voters. Party leaders insist their ideas are compatible. Meanwhile, other analysts question whether the newly-merged party – which will announce its new name and leader in late June – will have enough time to officially register for early elections.

Given the virtual certainty that early elections will result in an overwhelmingly pro-presidential parliament, analysts believe Nazarbayev's administration has a significant incentive to hold a free-and-fair vote. Nazarbayev is intent on having Kazakhstan serve as the chair of the OSCE in 2009. Opposition to Astana's chairmanship bid is rooted in the country's lackluster record on democratization. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The country has yet to hold an election judged free and fair by international observers. Thus a clean parliamentary vote later this year could boost Kazakhstan's OSCE aspirations. "If they get elections out of the way and can prove they are reasonably free and fair, it helps Kazakhstan's bid for the chairmanship of the OSCE," Isaacs said.

Nagyz Ak Zhol co-leader Bolat Abilov – who can't run for office due to a criminal conviction that he maintains was politically motivated – puts it more forcefully: "Mr. Nazarbayev understands, and all of society understands, that this parliament is illegitimate.... Nazarbayev needs to hold more or less normal elections to look good for Europe and for the OSCE." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Editor's Note: Joanna Lillis is a freelance writer who specializes in Central Asian affairs.

Posted June 20, 2007 © Eurasianet