Kazakhstan set to have one-party parliament following disputed election

Joanna Lillis 8/20/07

Kazakhstan's governing Nur Otan Party will hold a near-monopoly on seats in the next parliament after scoring a landslide victory in August 18 elections. The results came under immediate criticism from international observers, and confounded most political experts, who had predicted that the opposition stood to gain more seats than ever before.

Nur Otan, which is headed by President Nursultan Nazarbayev, won a resounding 88 percent of the vote, leaving the other six parties contesting the election unable to clear the 7-percent threshold needed to take up seats in the lower house, the Mazhilis. Leading opposition parties are disputing the results, alleging massive fraud.

According to official results, the main opposition party, the National Social Democratic Party (NSDP), came in second with 4.62 percent of the vote, followed by the moderate Ak Zhol party with 3.27 percent. The other parties received less than 2 percent of the ballots cast. Opposition leaders allege ballot stuffing, and insist that the 64.5-percent turnout figure was inflated. "We think the elections were held with maximum, massive falsifications on election day," NSDP co-leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay said during an August 20 news conference in Almaty.

"The figures were not gathered at polling stations, but handed down from above," added co-leader Oraz Zhandosov.

In its own statement, Ak Zhol called for a recount. "We already have in our hands multiple cases of violations that have been permitted in all regions," Ak Zhol leader Alikhan Baymenov told EurasiaNet by telephone from Astana.

The findings of the OSCE/ODIHR observation mission gave credence to opposition concerns. "[T]he vote count was assessed negatively in over 40 percent of polling stations visited, mainly due to procedural problems and lack of transparency," the organization said in an August 19 press release. Although the statement pointed out some positive aspects of the polling, the OSCE/ODIHR mission concluded that the election did not meet international benchmarks. This negative assessment likely means that Kazakhstan will be denied its long-sought goal of chairing the OSCE in 2009. [For background see the Eurasia insight archive].

"While these parliamentary elections reflected welcome progress in the pre-election process and in the conduct of the vote, a number of OSCE commitments and Council of Europe standards were not met, in particular with regard to elements of the new legal framework and the vote count," the OSCE/ODIHR statement said.

Rico Isaacs, a political scientist at Oxford Brookes University, described the election results as "dreadful" for Kazakhstan's image abroad. In an additional blow to Kazakhstan's OSCE aspirations, a report published August 16 in the New York Times alleged that Kazakhstan's security services pursued intelligence operations against international observers during the 2005 presidential poll, which saw Nazarbayev re-elected with 91 percent of the vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Times based its report on the contents of purported Kazakhstani government documents that have been circulating among diplomats in Kazakhstan for several weeks.

The National Security Committee dismissed the allegation. "Our officials have already announced that this document is not an official document, and it is quite possible that it is a forgery," a spokesman told EurasiaNet from Astana.

Meanwhile, Nazarbayev hailed the August 18 parliamentary vote as a triumph of democracy. "On the basis of a new system in line with international standards, open, honest and fair elections have taken place, in which all political forces in the country took part," he said on August 20, in remarks quoted by Kazinform news agency.

Nazarbayev was addressing the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan (APK), formerly called the Assembly of Peoples, an umbrella grouping of ethnic minorities which, under political reforms pushed through in May, is sending nine representatives to the expanded 107-seat parliament. Delegates were offered nine candidates for nine seats in the August 20 vote. All were voted in. The parliamentary presence of the APK, whose members are presidential appointees, has raised eyebrows in Kazakhstan and abroad. The OSCE pointed to the fact that Kazakhstan no longer has a fully elected chamber, and Kazakhstani analysts said it undermines one person-one vote democracy.

Nazarbayev hailed his party's landslide as a victory for the people. "In any elections there are winners and losers, but on August 18, I think all Kazakhstanis won," he told the APK.

The Mazhilis election was called two years early to launch political reforms that Nazarbayev says boost democracy. Some observers say they shore up his already considerable powers, particularly since he can now run for office for life. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The result was interpreted by some as a boost to his political sway. "It's a 100-percent coup by Nazarbayev," Ustina Markus of the Kazakhstan Institute of Management and Strategic Research told EurasiaNet. "Not only can he run over and over for president, but now ... with the new constitutional amendments that say you can't vote against the party line, he completely controls parliament.... Parliament is just an extension of the president."

Despite opposition frustration at the result, leaders are not planning to mount a mass protest effort. In any event, legal restrictions on protests now require organizers to seek permission to hold a rally, a process that can take 10 days. The opposition during this wait-period would be hard-pressed to maintain popular momentum, Isaacs said, adding that any attempt to undertake illegal protests could be met by authorities with a "heavy hand." Underscoring that point, Nazarbayev pledged to clamp down on radicalism. "We will firmly curb any forms of national radicalism, whatever side they arise from," he told the APK.

Conscious of the risk, the NSDP says it will apply for a rally but will not take to the streets without official permission. "We are a political party that is seriously laying claim to power, and we must be far from extremism. Extremism that can lead to bloodshed is unacceptable – especially for Social Democrats," Tuyakbay said.

Ak Zhol also says it will act strictly in line with the law. "We are now going to act on the legal level," Baymenov told EurasiaNet. "We have appealed to the president. We will appeal to the Prosecutor-General's Office. We will go to court."

Despite being left without a voice in parliament, NSDP leaders tried to project an upbeat image. "I think we will find new opportunities. If they are not given in the form of representation in parliament, it doesn't mean life is over," a NSDP leader, Tulegen Zhukeyev, said during the August 20 news conference.

Nur Otan, which will now have a say in the formation of the new cabinet, campaigned on a platform stressing stability and prosperity. "I am convinced that Kazakhstanis have again chosen the path of peace, accord, prosperity and an improvement to life," Nazarbayev told supporters the day after the vote, in remarks quoted on his party's website.

However, some observers caution that lack of an opposition voice in parliament could have unpredictable consequences. "They're interested in stability, and of course Nazarbayev and Nur Otan represent stability. However, they have to understand that all this does is create instability further down the line," Isaacs said. "They have to consider the long-term prospects that such strident authoritarianism and lack of respect for democratic norms will have the effect of destabilizing Kazakhstan and its politics and economy in the long-term."

Editor's Note: Joanna Lillis is a freelance writer who specializes in Central Asia.

Posted August 20, 2007 © Eurasianet