Karzai embraces risky plan to end Afghan-Pakistani antagonism

Ahmed Rashid 10/12/06

Afghan President Hamid Karzai wants to convene a jirga, or gathering of the Pashtun tribes living on both sides of the Pakistani-Afghan border, in an effort to stem Taliban violence and contain the spread of Islamic extremism. The initiative has generated apprehension in Afghanistan, as many officials and experts believe such a meeting might serve merely to accelerate the pace of the country's "Talibanization."

Karzai is pushing for the meeting to take place before the end of the year. A Joint Afghan-Pakistani Commission could be set up with the help of the United Nations to develop criteria for participation in the Jirga, the modalities of the meeting and other details, he suggested. Karzai and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf would attend the gathering.

Karzai first raised his plan at a dinner both leaders had in Washington in late September that was hosted by President George W. Bush. At first, Musharraf hesitated at the suggestion, but after Bush pledged US government support for the meeting, the Pakistani leader gave his tentative approval.

‘'I am thinking of a meeting [to foster] Afghan civil society, [including] Afghan elders, tribal chiefs, the ulema [Muslim scholars], the clergy and Afghan spiritual leadership plus the intellectuals – from the Pakistan side I am hoping for the same thing," Karzai said in the first detailed interview about the plan. ‘'It should be a gathering of the people from one end of the Afghan border with Pakistan to the other end."

Karzai would like to involve the international community in monitoring the jirga. The initial response of Western diplomats in Kabul was positive. At the same time, some expressed caution about becoming entangled in what they described as assuredly "complex tribal meetings." Afghanistan and Pakistan are both allied with the West in the struggle against Islamic radicalism, but are also deeply antagonistic toward each other.

The jirga would attempt to promote civil society development on both sides of the border in order to combat the growing Talibanization among the tribes, Karzai said. Afghan leaders including Karzai have accused Pakistan's intelligence agencies of willfully Talibanizing both sides of the border. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The recent peace deal between the Pakistan army and the Taliban in North Waziristan leaves the Taliban in place, while the fundamentalist party Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam, which dominates the provincial governments in the two border provinces of North West Frontier and Baluchistan, have allowed the Taliban to establish military bases from where they frequently attack Afghanistan.

"The traditional secular Pashtun leadership of Pakistan has been undermined systematically and violently," said Karzai. "The killing of 150 Pashtun leaders in North Waziristan ... is a clear indication of that. This can only stop if we support civil society."

Karzai hopes that if Pakistan adopts a good-faith stance toward the jirga, it could usher in a new era of peace between the two countries. The Afghan president said the gathering would achieve its goal only if it truly represented the wide range of political, social and religious attitudes that exist among Pashtun tribes. "Nobody can fake a jirga in Afghanistan, and I hope there will be similar transparency on the Pakistani side," he said.

Pakistan has long stated that it wants Afghanistan to recognize the Durand Line, the 2,640-kilometer (1,610-mile) border between the two countries. Afghans say the British-drawn, colonial-era frontier deprives Afghanistan of Pashtun territory now inside Pakistan. No Afghan government, not even the Pashtun-dominated Taliban regime that was closely allied with Pakistan, has felt strong enough to recognize the Durand Line.

Pashtun and non-Pashtun Afghans have voiced apprehensions about the jirga plan, saying the meeting could make it easier for Pakistan to foment radical Islamic ideas among Pashtuns in Afghanistan. Several cabinet ministers, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the British Broadcasting Corp. that there was a considerable chance that Islamabad would try to manipulate a jirga for its own political ends. "What happens if the Pakistani nominees to the jirga declare jihad against Karzai and the Americans?" asked one cabinet minister.

Younis Qanooni, a Tajik who currently serves as speaker of the Afghan parliament, proposed an alternate idea, contending that "it would be more productive if parliamentary delegations between the two countries met more often, rather than the jirga." Meanwhile, some Karzai supporters in parliament expressed concern that the president could fall into "a trap" at the envisioned jirga, in which he would become embroiled in an unwinnable competition with Musharraf for the leadership of all Pashtuns.

Deteriorating security conditions in Afghanistan, connected mainly with the expansion of the Taliban insurgency, are exerting pressure on Karzai to take risks. So far this year roughly 4,000 people have died in Taliban-related attacks. In one recent Taliban attack, a remote-controlled mine destroyed a vehicle in which top political and security officials of the Khogyani District in Nangarhar Province were traveling.

Taliban militants have also demonstrated an increasing willingness to stand and fight against NATO troops. Roughly 1,100 radicals were killed during a two-week-long clash with NATO forces outside Kandahar in early September. Intelligence reports prepared by the Atlantic Alliance and the Afghan government both determined that Pakistan is providing substantial support for Taliban military operations.

"Afghanistan's Pashtun belt is becoming very angry at what is coming from Pakistan. I hope they understand that it's not good for relations between the two countries," said Karzai.

Karzai now sees a jirga as offering the best hope for improving relations between the Afghan and Pakistani governments, and, more importantly, fostering better relations among Pashtuns on both sides of the border. Stronger ties would isolate the Taliban, Karzai believes. "No ethnic group or nation in the world is by its own nature radical," said Karzai. "Extremism makes them suffer that's why governments must stop using this. Afghanistan's stability and peace and prosperity are in the interests of Pakistan."

Editor's Note: Ahmed Rashid is a journalist and author of the book "Taliban: Militant Islam and Fundamentalism in Central Asia."

Posted October 12, 2006 © Eurasianet