Kyrgyzstan: President strives to finish off political opponents

Daniel Sershen: 10/23/07

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has dissolved parliament and called for fresh elections on December 16. In so doing, Bakiyev aims to bring closure to a long-running political struggle in Kyrgyzstan.

Bakiyev's announcement on October 22 came a day after the adoption of a new constitution via a contentious referendum. In dissolving parliament, Bakiyev took advantage of a constitutional gap, as the new constitution did not take immediate effect after securing popular approval. That allowed Bakiyev to dismiss the current parliament, by using a provision in the old, yet still-in-effect Basic Law concerning "insurmountable differences." The new constitution does not contain the "insurmountable differences" clause.

On the whole, experts believe that new constitution, along with a different legislative composition, will end up boosting Bakiyev's political stature. In an address broadcast on state television, Bakiyev criticized members of parliament for sowing discord, and for pursuing personal interests over the collective good. "The affair eventually went as far as an attempt at a parliamentary coup," Bakiyev said. "Parliament began to duplicate the executive branch, trying to influence not only appointments as envisioned by the constitution, but also operative decisions of the government, ministries, and departments."

Looking ahead, Bakiyev expressed confidence that the country's new lawmakers would avoid such alleged pitfalls. "The country will receive a parliament made up of worthy people, chosen for their ideas and not their money," he said, alluding to a frequent refrain that many legislators had essentially bought their legislative seats.

The next elections will be held according to a party-list system, under which voters will select their preferred party rather than individual candidates.

Not coincidentally, a new, pro-presidential party, Ak Zhol, held its founding congress on October 15. The delegates named Bakiyev party chairman, although he laid aside the post the next day due to constitutional restrictions on the president's political activity. Ak Zhol is expected to provide staunch support for Bakiyev's administration, much like similar parties in Russia, Kazakhstan, and other neighboring states.

The shift to a party-list system was one of the key demands of the political opposition during Kyrgyzstan's two years of debate over constitutional reform. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. However, many in the opposition objected to the enhanced powers of the president over the appointment, oversight, and dismissal of governmental officials, and called on their supporters to vote against the referendum.

Official results paint a picture of high turnout – 82 percent, easily passing the 50 percent threshold needed to validate the vote. In all, 76 percent of those participating in the referendum supported the new constitution. International observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization called the ballot fair, but local groups lambasted the voting.

The non-partisan monitoring organization Taza Shailoo fielded 750 observers across the country. "One can't say that this was a free and fair vote," said Kanat Kasmaliev, the group's director, due to ballot stuffing and other "flagrant, obvious, and systematic legal violations."

In addition to recording numerous instances of procedural violations, the group conducted a parallel turnout count. It estimated that the number of voters was actually 40 to 45 percent of the electorate, which would have invalidated the referendum.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) issued a statement of concern at the "high number of irregularities" reported by domestic groups, a conclusion echoed by the US Embassy. But the OSCE and other groups that typically monitor elections did not observe the October 21 referendum, in part due to the haste with which it was called. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In characterizing the electoral advantages of post-Soviet incumbents, many monitors refer to "administrative resources," shorthand for the state's direct and indirect influence over voters. Government leverage – including free television airtime, the ability to pressure state employees to vote in a certain manner, and the exploitation of out-of-date electoral lists to create legions of loyal phantom voters – leaves broad room for manipulation.

Kasmaliev singled out local election commissions as complicit in facilitating fraud. The head of one such commission, Gulnara Narynbaeva of Bishkek's polling station number 1195, did not seem to make the distinction between ensuring the smooth running of the referendum, and achieving a favorable result for the authorities.

"Of course I support the new constitution," she told EurasiaNet. "How could I work in the election commission if I didn't?"

Domestic observers also noted an extremely low level of awareness among voters themselves, a view bolstered by interviews around the capital. One woman who voted for the new legislation said she knew nothing of the content of the documents, nor did she necessarily support the president or his policies. "But in my opinion it was important to vote in favor," she said.

Others seemed fed up with the constant battle over constitutional reform, which has all but paralyzed Kyrgyz politics since the 2005 Tulip Revolution brought Bakiyev to power. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "I want there to be a stable state," said voter Olga Kondrashova, who supported the new constitution. "Any other way there will just be an endless fight for power."

Shairbek Juraev of the International and Comparative Politics Department at the American University of Central Asia said the fight would continue, if on a different battlefield. Despite various complaints, he said, "it is clear that political groups accepted [the] president's terms, and are preparing for elections."

With the rapid growth of Ak Zhol, which has absorbed at least 12 members of parliament and many other pro-government politicians, opposition parties are also seeking to unite. In order to gain representation in the new parliament, political parties will have to receive the support of at least 5 percent of registered voters. Merger talks among Ata-Meken, the party of former speaker Omurbek Tekebayev, and its opposition allies Ak-Shumkar and Asaba have so far been unsuccessful. Former Prime Minister Feliks Kulov's opposition Ar-Namys party seems to be keeping its distance. The Social Democrats of current Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev also seem to be avoiding overt ties to any other party, opposition or pro-government.

Juraev predicted a pro-government majority in the coming parliament. "The main question is whether [the] pro-presidential party manages to get more than 50 percent, or will it have to rely on some 'loyals' like Atambayev's party, he said.

Kasmaliev said the results of the referendum did not bode well for the December vote. "You can say that a precedent is being established," he said, in which election officials will interpret a lack of punishment for violations as sanction to repeat them. "Most likely a similar situation awaits us during the parliamentary elections," he said.

Editor's Note: Daniel Sershen is a freelance journalist based in Bishkek.

Posted October 23, 2007 © Eurasianet

Turkmenistan: Education system proves stubbornly resistant to reform

10/23/07

Turkmenistan's new leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has cultivated an image as a cautious reformer – mainly through a pledge to improve the Central Asian nation's education system. Initial steps to develop a new culture of learning in Turkmenistan, however, have not brought visible benefits to the educational sphere, observers in Ashgabat report.

In approaching the legacy of his predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov, Berdymukhamedov has moved cautiously. On the one hand, Berdymukhamedov has let it be known that the cult of personality built up around Niyazov is not going to be dismantled anytime soon. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On the other hand, Berdymukhamedov has spoken repeatedly about reversing some of the most damaging aspects of Niyazov's tenure, which was marked by anti-intellectualism. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. During his first-ever trip to the United States in September, for example, one of Berdymukhamedov's top priorities was establishing contacts that could help Turkmenistan revive its educational system.

Shortly after winning a special presidential election in February, Berdymukhamedov decreed the extension of compulsory education to 10 years from the nine-year system that existed under Niyazov. He also restored university education to a five-year course, seemingly intent on reversing his predecessor's higher education policy of two years of classroom study and two years of practical experience.

Despite such steps, observers report that there has been little change in the quality of education in Turkmenistan. "We are currently on the verge of a humanitarian disaster; an entire generation of youth has been 'written off' from the educational point of view," said one university lecturer, who spoke to EurasiaNet on condition of anonymity. "For years, the efforts were focused on the elimination of education system. It will be very hard to restore it."

Another Ashgabat resident, a self-described public activist, said that Niyazov's isolationist policies have already taken a devastating toll. Many young people, especially those outside of the capital, lack even the most basic computer skills, and are, therefore, unprepared to meet the challenges of the 21st century. "Unfortunately, the former education system has survived Niyazov and is still in force. It has already helped to create an isolated, illiterate people," the Ashgabat resident said.

A source at Turkmen State University said that the curriculum instituted by Niyazov is still in use. That means one of the main textbooks for all university students continues to be the Ruhnama, the spiritual guide for the Turkmen nations supposedly penned by Niyazov. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"We have no orders from the Education Ministry, no curriculum; we don't know when they will be available, everything is going on in accordance with the prior scheme", the university official said.

For many parents who went through the Soviet educational system, the value of a Turkmen higher educational degree is debatable. One Ashgabat mother of a 22-year-old only partially lamented the fact that her child did not go to college. "Is it worth studying in our universities now anyway, what level of education do they provide? I graduated from a Soviet-era university where I studied Russian philology. That was a true education," the mother said.

For those desiring a higher education there are comparatively few openings at universities and institutes. Aptitude is often not the determining factor in who is admitted. Rather, bribery reportedly still plays an important role. According to some parents, a spot in the law department at Turkmen State University can cost upwards of $17,000, and gaining admission to the medical department is said to cost $15,000.

"This year, my daughter failed the exams at the medical university – even though the whole year she had intensively studied with tutors. [It was] because I didn't give a bribe. After she failed the exams here, we went to Moscow and she passed the exams at Moscow's medical university! I believe the money we would have had to pay here for her to become a student will cover the entire period of her stay in Russia," an Ashgabat father said.

Recent graduates also report that the Niyazov-era requirement of two years of practical work remains in effect, despite the Berdymukhamedov edict. Under this system, former students need to work at a qualified state institution or enterprise. Yet, due to the stagnating economy (outside of the energy sector), state enterprises are reluctant to take on college students seeking to complete their degree requirement. Without proof of completing the two-year work requirement, students are unable to obtain their university degree.

"I graduated from the university in 1999 and am still unable to get my higher education certificate. The situation is ridiculous," said an Ashgabat woman. "In our group there were 56 students. Forty of them are such 'specialists without a diploma!'"

Posted October 23, 2007 © Eurasianet