Daunting challenges await Georgia's new leaders

A EurasiaNet Photo Essay: 11/24/03

Georgian President Eduard Shevarnadze's resignation has averted the immediate threat of violence in Georgia. Yet the possibility of confrontation and disorder over the medium term remains significant. Georgia's stabilization hopes now depend on the ability of an inexperienced leadership team to negotiate a wide variety of economic and political challenges in the coming weeks. An immediate crisis concerning the autonomous region of Ajaria is already developing.

Shevardnadze was tenacious in his attempt to cling to power following Georgia's disputed parliamentary election November 2. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Ultimately, the former Soviet politburo member, a veteran of Kremlin political infighting, succumbed to overreaching by trying to convene a parliament widely viewed as illegitimately elected. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In the end, the president's only viable option was to step down. After the opposition seized control of parliament, Shevardnadze declared a state of emergency. But it soon became apparent that the bulk of the military and security forces did not support the president. Thus, an attempt to resort to force would undoubtedly have sparked civil war.

In resigning, Shevardnadze, who as Soviet foreign minister managed the break-up of the Communist empire, indicated that now intended to write his memoirs. "I have to catch up with time, and while I am still alive, write something," the 75-year-old Shevardnadze said.

Shevardnadze and opposition leaders may have made a deal over the resignation. In return for departing without a fight, opposition leaders appear willing to allow Shevardnadze to enjoy a peaceful retirement, apparently without the threat of having to answer for possible transgressions while in office.

Mikheil Saakashvili – the leader of the National Movement and the chief catalyst for anti-government protests over the past few weeks – praised Shevardnadze's decision as a "very brave step," Imedi TV reported. He said he guaranteed the former president's security and living conditions. "History will appreciate this [the resignation] according to its merits," Saakashvili said.

Zurab Zhvania, another main opposition leader, indicated that Georgia's provisional authority intended to be forward looking. "We have to respect this decision by Eduard Shevardnadze." He went on to tell Imedi TV that Georgia should move forward with the state-building process "without any vengeance or the settling of scores."

The third member of the new leadership triumvirate, acting president Nino Burjanadze, urged Georgians in a November 23 television address to maintain order. She indicated that fresh elections would be held "in accordance with the constitution," while reiterating that Georgia's provisional government would maintain the country's Western-oriented foreign policy.

Georgians appeared to heed Burjanadze's appeal. Life on the streets of the capital Tbilisi, the scene of almost three weeks of mass protests, was returning to normal on November 24. However, the sense of relief and euphoria over the change of government may be short-lived.

In the coming days and weeks, Georgia's new leaders must grapple with major challenges that could provoke fresh conflict. Perhaps the most immediate threat relates to how provisional authorities deal with the country's autonomous republics – including the quasi-independent regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia – along with Ajaria.

Zhvania provided insight into the new leadership's thinking when he spoke of the need to "build a new, united, integral Georgian state and Georgian society in a dignified way," according to Imedi TV. The key word is "integral." Indeed, provisional leaders seem to adhere to a much tougher line concerning Tbilisi's authority over the autonomous regions. They have not tried to hide their desire to promote a far greater degree of centralized control over Georgia's regions.

The flashpoint of a potential conflict could be Ajaria. The region's leader, Aslan Abashidze, is widely perceived by the new leaders in Tbilisi as having conspired with Shevardnadze to try to steal the November 2 parliamentary elections. The Ajarian regional party, the Revival Union, was the second-place finisher, according to the official election results that are generally considered tainted. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Saakashvili and Abashidze have a clear dislike for each other, fueled in large measure by a pre-election clash between National Movement supporters and Ajarian law enforcement officials in Batumi, the region's capital. That riot marked the most violent incident of the election campaign. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Abashidze certainly fears that Ajaria, which effectively governs as a fiefdom, may come under pressure from Tbilisi in the near future. As news of Shevardnadze's resignation spread, Abashidze declared a state of emergency in Ajaria, anticipating a move against his authority in the region. "Unfortunately, the leaders of this movement [the provisional leadership in Tbilisi] do not hide their aggressive attitude..... People must stand up to defend their interests." On November 24, Abashidze warned of a possible armed "incursion" by armed units loyal to Tbilisi, the Gazeta.ru website reported.

According to the Russian web site Lenta.ru, an Abashidze aide announced November 24 that Ajarian leaders did not recognize the legitimacy of the provisional leadership in Tbilisi, and said that Ajaria would boycott new elections. That announcement was certain to provoke ire in Tbilisi.

The other potential source of conflict is the new elections themselves. Under Georgia's constitutional provisions, a new presidential vote is required within 45 days. A fresh parliamentary vote is also expected. Under the existing circumstances, the twin elections could easily cause the so-called "velvet revolution" to eat its young, undermining the ability for provisional authority to provide effective governance.

To begin with, the leadership triumvirate of Saakashvili, Burjanadze and Zhvania rests on a tenuous foundation. During the parliamentary election campaign, Burjanadze and Zhvania generally viewed Saakashvili's confrontational strategy as too radical. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The post-election protests in Tbilisi brought the three together, but in the coming weeks they may again take divergent political paths. It may well be that all three face off against each other in the upcoming presidential election.

The parliamentary vote is also fraught with the potential for chaos. There are numerous problems arising from the November 2 vote that must be redressed quickly if the new elections are to be considered legitimate. Chief among the problems is the accuracy of voter lists. Other important issues include the composition of the Central Election Commission and local commissions, and the monitoring of the vote in Ajaria, where widespread ballot-rigging occurred in early November.

The actions of Georgia's provisional leadership – especially Tbilisi's interaction with its autonomous regions – have the potential to stoke renewed confrontation with Russia. Moscow has acted as a protector of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In recent days, Russian leaders have also expressed strong support for Ajaria and Abashidze. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov met with Abashidze late on November 23.

In an interview with Russian state television, the head of the Russian parliament's International Affairs Committee, Dmitry Rogozin, characterized Abashidze as a "stabilizing element" in Georgia. He went on to describe the leadership team now in place in Tbilisi as "young wolves" who are "more honestly aggressive [than Shevardnadze] in their anti-Russian stance." Other Russian politicians have cautioned Tbilisi on any move against autonomous regions.

Burjanadze, speaking November 24 on television, said it was important for Georgia to promote good relations with Russia. At the same time, officials in Tbilisi announced that security was being increased along the Georgian-Russian frontier, citing "the possibility of provocations coming from the Russian side of the border," Lenta.ru reported.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Ivanov have reacted cautiously to recent developments in Tbilisi. According to some Georgian political observers, Russian leaders are primarily concerned that the new leadership team will seek to accelerate Georgia's integration into Western security and economic structures. Moscow's wary attitude was plainly evident in comments made by Ivanov prior to meeting Abashidze. "We [Russia] regard all decisions taken outside the law or on the street, through influence or pressure, as not being in accordance with democratic principles, and I do not think this is in Georgia's interests either," the Interfax news agency quoted Ivanov as saying.

Posted November 24, 2003 © Eurasianet