Assessment for Bakongo in Angola

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The Bakongo have two factors that encourage rebellion: a history of rebellion (the civil war ended in 2002) and a history of government repression. Previously, serious armed conflicts in the area also contribute to regional instability. Factors that could inhibit rebellion include efforts made towards negotiations (a ceasefire was signed in 2002) and transnational support for peace. In addition, there is immense war-weariness among the Angolans.

The probability of protest will increase if restrictions and repression continue or increase. Though levels of repression fell in 2003 in the aftermath of the civil war, it is possible that the authoritarian regime will revert to its earlier ways. Elections were last held in Angola in 1992. If elections are held again shortly, it might lead to instability. The ruling MPLA is currently the only group in the country capable of organizing and winning an electoral contest. This is a factor that could concern UNITA. An unstable democratization process might create conditions ripe for protest. Most importantly, if the chronic poverty in the resource-rich country is not addressed, the probability of renewed conflict will rise.

Analytic Summary

The Kikongo-speaking Bakongo are the third largest ethnic group in Angola, and they populate mainly the northern regions of Cabinda, Zaire, and Uige. The Bakongo have migrated throughout Angola, Zaire, and Congo during periods of rebellion and repression from the 17th century to the present. They have kin in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa). When Europeans reached Angola in the 15th century, the Bakongo had a centralized kingdom, the Kongo Empire. The kings of the Kongo maintained an uneasy independence until 1665 when the Portuguese defeated them. The Kongolese submitted to Portuguese rule and the Portuguese henceforth controlled appointments to the Kongo throne. As a result of war and internal dislocation, there has been a considerable amount of integration among the different groups. Nevertheless, they are distinct in terms of language and religion.

In the mid-20th century, the Bakongo established the Union of Angolan Peoples (UPA) whose original aim was to unite all the Bakongo people in one state. Eventually, the UPA dropped the goal of a separate state for the Bakongo people and adopted a goal of independence for all Angolan peoples. UNITA, supported by the Ovimbundu people, and MPLA, supported by the Mbundu people, also fought for independence from the Portuguese. The Bakongo people were active participants of the Angolan independence struggle and the UPA became the National Front for the Liberation of Angola (FNLA) in 1962. Much of the FNLA's traditional Bakongo constituency, however, fled into Zaire during the war for independence.

Angola gained independence from Portugal in 1975. With the ascendancy of the MPLA after independence, both the Bakongo and the Ovimbundu were discriminated against. More important than systematic, group-specific discrimination was the fact that the government ruled by patronage -- and met its match in Jonas Savimibi, the charismatic leader of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola or UNITA. The UNITA-MPLA civil war broke out shortly after independence and continued until Savimibi's death in February 2002.

By the late 1970s, the FNLA was unable to continue its guerrilla activity because of lack of popular support outside the northern regions. By 1979, the fighting was concentrated away from the northern homelands of the Bakongo, and many of those who had fled to Zaire returned home. As the FNLA became less important and eventually virtually defunct, the Bakongo came to be associated with UNITA.

Angola has been ruled by a Portuguese-speaking urban elite descended from Portuguese and Dutch buccaneers who came down the coast hundreds of years ago. Most of them are of mixed-race descent. Savimbi alleged that this elite were not real Africans. His belief that Angola belonged to black Africans resonated with both his own Ovimbundu tribe and other Angolans, including the Bakongo. Over time, the civil war in Angola became a function of both the Cold War and the machinations and ambitions of Savimbi and the leaders of the ruling government. The Bakongo, like other Angolans, became trapped in a vicious cycle of unending violence and destruction.

Because of the impact of the civil war, the situation of the Bakongo in Angola is difficult to determine. There are NO press reports referring to them. However, based on time-invariant information, their areas of concentration, and their association with UNITA, one can infer that the Bakongo are not doing well. It is almost certain that large numbers of Bakongo were internally displaced because of the conflict. In the absence of remedial policies, it is difficult to see how they would get access to the civil service, military/police and high office. However, little evidence exists on policies of systematic discrimination against the Bakongo, and some political remedial policies are in place as of 2003 (POLDIS03 = 1, ECDIS03 = 2). The civil war has also contributed to immense demographic stress. Health problems and malnutrition associated with the war have hit the Bakongo (DMSICK01-02 = 3, DMSICK03 = 2), who have also been tortured, killed and forcibly recruited to fight. These atrocities were committed both by government forces and UNITA. As of 2003, military hostilities have ceased completely (REB01-02 = 7, REB03 = 0). This has led some improvement in conditions for the group. At the same time, the Bakongo, like other groups in the country, continue to suffer from chronic poverty and have little access to economic or political opportunities.

References

1. British Broadcasting Corporation. http://news.bbc.co.uk/

2. CIA World Factbook 2003. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ao.html

3. Human Rights Watch. http://www.hrw.org/doc?t=africa&c=angola

4. Lexis-Nexis Academic Search (until 2003). http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe