Trouble Near the Top in Uzbekistan

A series of high-level dismissals from the Uzbekistan government is beginning to look like an organised purge, in the view of according to some analysts.

Rovshan Muhiddinov, a former advisor to President Islam Karimov whose remit was coordinating the powerful security agencies; Tursunkhon Khudoibergenov, the minister responsible for disaster relief; and Muhiddin Qiyomov, Uzbekistan's deputy chief prosecutor, were all reported to have been arrested in the course of November. Later reports suggested that Khudoibergenov had not been arrested, but that he had been barred from leaving the country.

High-level dismissals included those of Deputy Prime Minister Botir Hojaev and Fergana regional governor Hamid Nematov, while Culture and Sports Minister Tursunali Kuziev was said to be on his way out.

Since the heavily-censored state media do not discuss political changes at the top, establishing the motivation behind them is guesswork. But analysts and other sources in Uzbekistan believe most of those removed were appointments or allies of Prime Minister Shavqat Mirziyoev, suggesting that his days may now be numbered.

Rumours of Mirziyov's imminent departure form a post he has held for nine years have circulated for about six months. The speculation intensified after he appeared before parliament in July and in a complete departure from the tradition of rubberstamp approval, was taken to task over his cabinet's performance. (For a report on this, see Uzbek Parliament Gets Tough on Prime Minister.) 

Over the last year, Karimov has implemented a number of reforms designed to make Uzbekistan look more democratic, among them a new rule making the prime minister directly accountable to parliament. This has been interpreted as a way of using parliament to curb, undermine and perhaps sack a prime minister who has developed too much of an independent power-base.

"It's possible Mirziyoev will be removed," a high-ranking official in government who wished to remain anonymous said. "He knows too much, and over his many years in office, he's promoted many of his own supporters."

Abdujalil Boymatov, an Uzbek opposition member now living in Ireland, believes Karimov is looking for someone to blame for Uzbekistan's woes, in a changed world where one-man rule does not look as secure as it once did.

"Karimov is keeping a close eye on the fates of North African and Arab dictators, and on how that might play out in Uzbekistan," Boymatov said. "This situation calls for a scapegoat who can be held responsible for all failings, while the nation is fed the image of a wise, incorruptible president, so as to reduce the level of public discontent."

Supporters of the Uzbek authorities, meanwhile, say there is no subtext, and Karimov is just doing what is best for the country.

"Islam Karimov has shown more than once that he is the most considered and far-sighted politician in the region, so any reshuffle stems purely from political expedience and the principle of 'do no harm'," Tashkent-based political Rafik Saifullin said.

Svetlana Artykova, who chairs the legislative committee in the Senate or upper house of Uzbekistan's parliament, was equally dismissive of talk of political manoeuvring, saying that all was happening was a "routine" process of creating the "optimum corpus of state officials".

"Competition is tough, so anyone who can't cope with their assignments will lose their post," she said.

The situation should become clearer, one way or another, when the two houses of parliament meet in joint session in early December. Under Karimov's reforms, they could theoretically pass a vote of no confidence in Mirziyoev.

According to Tashkent-based political analyst Bahodir Safoev, "The rumours now swirling in the corridors of government are that the prime minister will resign."