Sudan: Assurances and tension ahead of key Abyei ruling

KHARTOUM, 21 July 2009 (IRIN) - The boundaries of Sudan's oil- and pasture-rich Abyei region are finally due to be set on 22 July when experts in The Hague rule on a dispute that has threatened the country's 2005 peace accord.

The Abyei Arbitral Tribunal, sitting at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, will determine whether or not the northern government was correct in claiming that a previous panel, the Abyei Boundaries Commission, exceeded its mandate in its 2005 ruling. The commission had found that Abyei was much larger than Khartoum claimed and that the area included productive oil fields. Under its boundaries, Khartoum will lose the oil revenue if Abyei votes to join Southern Sudan in a 2011 referendum.

In the run-up to the new ruling, leaders from both north and south Sudan have sought to quell fears that the decision will spark fresh conflict between communities in Abyei or even reignite the civil war.

Both sides have vowed to abide by the tribunal's ruling.

"We have committed ourselves to the arbitration and we are going to accept the ruling," said Ghazi Salahaldin from President Omar al-Bashir's northern National Congress Party.

"We have agreed some security measures to be taken in order to prevent any confrontations in the region," he added.

Binding decision

"The award will be binding for both parties," said Malik Agar, who heads the delegation from the south's ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).

"The decision, of course, will not be without disappointment to either party," Agar added. "We expect some violence may be there, but the two parties are prepared."

In May 2008, clashes between troops from Northern and Southern Sudan displaced thousands of people from their homes. Many have yet to return.

Senior officials from both sides have travelled to Abyei "to explain the ruling to the people", according to Agar.

The public commitment to accept the ruling peacefully has been welcomed by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who stressed in a 14 July report to the Security Council that the situation in Abyei "remains volatile and requires constant attention".

"The past has shown that disputes over the status of Abyei and conflicts between local communities have the potential to create instability that could spiral into a major escalation and threaten the Comprehensive Peace Agreement itself," Ban warned.

Build-up of forces

Ashraf Qazi, Ban's special representative in Sudan, warned on 18 July that SPLM forces were in the Abyei area. In a statement he underlined that only joint/integrated units comprising soldiers and police from both north and south were authorised to be in Abyei.

But he said there were "several reports and confirmations" that Southern police and military units from the former rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) were in the Agok region south of Abyei, in breach of previous deals.

"This is a clear violation of the Abyei Roadmap Agreement and could lead to [an] escalation [of] violence if ... unchecked," he said.

A spokesman for the SPLA, Major General Kuol Diem Kuol, denied the reports and countered that northern forces were gathering in Diffra, some 50km north of Abyei.

Keeping the peace

Ban also stressed that concrete steps had to be taken to ensure peace after the ruling.

"Crucially, the Abyei area needs a fully funded and functional civilian administration irrespective of the result of the arbitration," Ban said.

Enough, a Washington DC advocacy group, urged in a 20 July statement: "Sustained attention, including negotiations between the parties on long-term wealth-sharing arrangements related to Abyei's oil reserves, are the only way to mitigate the risk that Abyei will unravel the North-South peace."

In 2011, Abyei is scheduled hold a referendum on whether its people join north or south Sudan. At the same time, Southern Sudan will vote on whether to fully secede and form an independent state.

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