Nagorno Karabakh talks: Prelude to peace?

Samvel Martirosyan 4/12/05

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh are growing in the run-up to an upcoming summit meeting to discuss new proposals from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe for an end to the 17-year conflict over the disputed region.

For the past month, skirmishes on the ceasefire line between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces have been reported almost every day. The exchange of gunfire has brought the highest casualty rate since the 1994 ceasefire agreement that ended the three-year war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the territory. In March, at least six servicemen were killed in the exchanges. Three Azerbaijani soldiers have also been taken prisoner by Armenian forces, and the Armenian defense ministry reported on April 7 that an Armenian soldier was now held by Azerbaijan.

The clashes come as both sides state that they are ready to make serious compromises to resolve the conflict. Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov are scheduled to meet on April 15 in London as a precursor to a possible meeting between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of a May 16 Council of Europe summit in Warsaw.

"We have never questioned the need for compromises in the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict," Armenian President Robert Kocharian was quoted as saying by the news agency Mediamax at an April 11 meeting with students at Yerevan State University. "We have to understand that compromises in the settlement are inevitable. But we had better not speak about their possible scale today."

The extent of those compromises, Kocharian said, depended on Armenia's domestic political and economic situation and the position taken by the international community on a resolution to the crisis. Azerbaijan has charged that the ruckus over the skirmishes is a negotiating tactic staged by Armenia to strengthen their position at the London meeting, as well as to shore up popular support for President Robert Kocharian's government.

"[The Armenians] have to sit at the negotiating table and have their final say," Azerbaijani Parliamentary Deputy Speaker Ziyafat Asgarov stated on April 6, the Baku-based Space TV reported. "I believe that they are trying to avoid having their say and deliberately violating the cease-fire to give the international community the impression that stability is being disrupted."

Speaking at the Armenian parliament's March 29-31 hearings on Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian Defense Minister Serge Sarkissian charged that attempts by Azerbaijani forces in the territory to take better positions had reduced the distance between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops to a mere 35-50 meters in some places. "Where do we want to lead the people, what do we want – a new war? ... Can war last for eternity?" the Armenian news service ArmInfo quoted Sarkissian, a former commander of Armenian forces in Karabakh, as saying on April 7. "This is an option too, though. [W]hen people make such a decision, then the defense minister will also have to assume this position."

In Armenia, Russian news outlets have added to the tensions with reports that cite Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as saying that "[t]he war may start at any moment." Azerbaijani media outlets have not carried the remarks.

The OSCE has also expressed concern over the growing Nagorno Karabakh tensions. "Aggressive statements must stop and the sides must do their best to establish an atmosphere of mutual trust," OSCE Acting Chairman and Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitri Rupel stated during a March 30 trip to Yerevan. During his stay in the Armenian capital, Rupel met with the de facto president of Nagorno Karabakh, Arkadi Ghukasian, and told reporters that, despite the ceasefire violations, chances were strong that negotiations between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh would open by the end of summer.

The participation of Nagorno Karabakh representatives in the talks would be a first for the OSCE-brokered peace process – and a move long opposed by Azerbaijan. The OSCE appears to hold strong hopes that Baku will yield on this point. "There are some details for which solutions are impossible without the participation of Nagorno Karabakh," OSCE Minsk Group Chairman Russian Ambassador Yuri Merzlyakov told the Azerbaijani news agency APA in a recent interview.

Meanwhile, both sides stress that they are ready to talk peace.

Sarkissian has stated that the Armenian government would agree to a referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh to be held in the territory under the auspices of the OSCE and United Nations, and also agree to negotiations over the status of the seven Azerbaijani regions currently occupied by Armenian forces. The defense minister presented the fact that Armenia has not to date recognized Nagorno-Karabakh's independence as a third concession made to Azerbaijan, though the chances appear to be slim that Baku would acknowledge it as such.

Increasingly, Yerevan appears to be focusing its peace overtures on the seven regions bordering Karabakh that are currently occupied by Armenian forces. "I think such a pragmatic approach by the Armenian side may become a pledge of success," Sarkissian told parliament. Armenia, however, he said, would not return the regions to Azerbaijan without "strict guarantees of security and non-resumption of war, guaranteed by the international community, separate countries and organizations."

The statements could be seen as a quid pro quo for Azerbaijani concessions to Armenian demands on Karabakh itself. Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian has indicated that Yerevan sees the two issues as separate. "We will not concede Nagorno Karabagh; we will not concede the security of Nagorno Karabagh population; and will not admit a status of enclave for Nagorno Karabagh," Oskanian told parliament. " All this does not mean that the option territories for status cannot be discussed."

Speaking at the parliamentary hearings in Yerevan, Vladimir Kazimirov, a key architect of the 1994 ceasefire and Russia's former envoy to the OSCE Minsk Group, the body charged with overseeing the Karabakh peace talks, pushed the Kocharian government to drop its traditional insistence on a package peace deal, terming the strategy "not realistic." Given differences between the two sides, he argued, a gradual approach is the only way to peace.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has indicated that it would agree to a step-by-step withdrawal from the seven occupied territories, but cautioned that the ceasefire must hold during the talks in London. "Regular violations of the ceasefire carry the aim of increasing tensions. Armenia wants to receive [from this] a postponement [of talks], citing the tense situation. But losing time is not advantageous to either of the sides," Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov was quoted as saying by the Baku-based newspaper Zerkalo on April 8.

Editor's Note: Samvel Martirosyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.

Posted April 12, 2005 © Eurasianet