Armenian diaspora looks for presidential vote to promote stable growth

Lara Tcholakian 2/18/03

A EurasiaNet Commentary

Members of the Armenian Diaspora in North America will closely monitor the presidential election in Armenia on February 19. For some, especially those with commercial interests in Armenia, the result is perhaps less important than the desire for a transparent and fairly conducted election. The Diaspora community ultimately is eager to see the elections contribute to an Armenia that is more transparent and attractive for investors.

The election features a crowded field of presidential contenders. Many political analysts expect the incumbent, Robert Kocharian, to secure reelection, although some wonder whether he will win enough votes on February 19 to avoid a run-off.

Kocharian has based his campaign mainly on economic themes, stressing Armenia's strong record of growth under his administration. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Such tactics may be sufficient to attract votes from Kocharian's domestic constituents, but many in the North American Diaspora tend to see Armenia as not living up to its potential for foreign investment.

Some entrepreneurs who have had business dealings in Armenia – including Vazken Terzian, an Armenian-Canadian of Servocraft Limited – say that caution about investing in Armenian ventures is connected with a lack of confidence in legal safeguards and political stability.

"Armenia is a very fertile ground for various types of investments. But strong investors, mostly non-Armenian multi-nationals, are absent primarily because of the shaky confidence towards the political climate," Terzian explained in an interview. The 1999 parliament assassination tragedy is the most prominent example of politically related violence in recent years. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Terzian and other Diaspora entrepreneurs want the election winner, whether Kocharian or not, to take steps to guarantee the security of investments, to enforce appropriate laws fairly and to reduce pervasive corruption.

Another way for the Armenian government to entice investment, especially from the North American Diaspora, is to ease its stance on dual citizenship. The inability of those in the Diaspora to easily obtain dual citizenship has undermined confidence in the Armenian government. "Rejecting or ignoring dual citizenship rights effectively and symbolically disqualifies anyone in the Diaspora who would want to be both a citizen of Armenia and their country of residence," said Razmig Panossian from the London School of Economics.

Diaspora Armenians contend that improving the investment climate is the key to solving Armenia's most serious economic dilemma – unemployment. The existing lack of job opportunities is the major cause of large-scale emigration. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Massive unemployment is also connected with poverty. Indeed, Armenia's strong growth rate in recent years is offset by the World Bank's 2001 Country Profile, which indicates that a significant number of Armenians continue to live below the poverty line.

Some Diaspora Armenians express concern about the conduct of the presidential election campaign. Perceived inequalities raise the possibility for some that balloting irregularities may occur, thereby hampering civil society development.

Khatchig Tølølyan, a Wesleyan University professor and the Editor of Diaspora: A Journal of Transnational Studies, suggested that the campaign playing field was not level. "The incumbent president is running a very expensive election campaign, funded by many wealthy businesspeople," and supported by many of the country's television stations, Tølølyan said. Most of Kocharian's rivals cannot match the resources and, thus, the media access that the president enjoys.

An election largely free of irregularities would send a positive signal to the Diaspora community about civil society development. But clean elections are only the starting point, Terzian said. "The lack of government transparency and continued corruption in public affairs persist as a legacy from the former communist regime. The legal systems are outdated and need to be improved first for Armenians and secondly for foreigners (Armenian or non-Armenian)," Terzian said.

Of course, members of the Diaspora are also eager to see a political settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, saying long-term political and economic stability will be difficult to ensure without a peace deal. At the same time, the Karabakh issue has not played the most prominent role in the presidential campaign, nor has it in discussions among Diaspora leaders about the election's implications. While there is near unanimity that any Karabakh agreement cannot leave the territory under Azerbaijani jurisdiction, there is also recognition that any treaty may depend on factors not under the total control of Armenian authorities.

While the Armenian government has shown itself to be open to discussing major issues with Diaspora leaders, developments have shown that those abroad have little actual influence over the policy decisions made in Yerevan. Diaspora members say they have primarily the country's interests in mind when they urge the implementation of legal and structural changes following the presidential election. Whether the winner of the February 19 election agrees with the Diaspora viewpoint remains to be seen.

Editor's Note: Lara Tcholakian is a freelance writer who specializes in Armenian political and economic affairs.

Posted February 18, 2003 © Eurasianet