Armenia: Ready for change with Azerbaijan, but how?

7/10/07

A EurasiaNet Commentary by Haroutiun Khachatrian

Skepticism is running strong in Armenia that a surprise trip by a joint Armenian-Azeri delegation of intellectuals may mark a new stage in efforts to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Despite initial optimism, the question of what will follow to build on this initiative remains, for now, unanswered.

On June 28, a joint delegation made up of ten Armenians and Azerbaijanis, and led by the two countries' respective ambassadors to Russia, traveled to Yerevan, Baku and Stepanakert for meetings with Armenian President Robert Kocharian, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and de facto Karabakh President Arkady Ghukasian

By suggesting that Baku had given the nod to direct contact between Azerbaijani diplomats and the de facto leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh, the event was unprecedented.

Yet the popular response in Armenia would suggest otherwise, with politicians and media outlets generally paying scant attention to the visit. The lack of discussion is widely seen as a sign that Karabakh, despite years of negotiations, is not a priority topic for most Armenians. With a growing economy and no immediately visible impact from the conflict with Azerbaijan, public attention for the past several years has focused more readily on questions of jobs, corruption or prices.

"The reaction of our public opinion [to the trip] was similar to that of a routine visit of an international organization or diplomat," said a news analysis published by the Yerevan daily Hayots Ashkharh on June 30.

Perhaps with that backdrop in mind, government officials are cautious about expressing what they see as the significance of the meetings and possibilities for future exchanges. "We welcome this initiative, and, moreover, find it was delayed. Such contacts are necessary to improve mutual trust between the two countries," Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian said in an interview with EurasiaNet.org.

The initiative, which Oskanian described as the suggestion of the two ambassadors, has been followed by a clear change in rhetoric on both sides. Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polad Bulbuloglu has called his colleague, the Armenian ambassador to Russia Armen Smbatian, "my friend," and described Karabakh Armenians as "citizens of Azerbaijan," rather than enemies

Oskanian expressed hope that additional meetings could take place, including contacts among inhabitants of border areas, but he did not elaborate. This proposal, which could encompass such relatively low-key measures as cattle pasturage or simple cross-border trade, has long been of interest to Armenia.

International negotiators have encouraged both sides to pursue contacts that have nothing to do with the conflict – such as environmental issues. So far, though, both sides have not vigorously pursued possible openings for confidence-building initiatives. Most recently, a qualifying match in Baku between Armenia and Azerbaijan for the 2008 European soccer championship fell through after Azerbaijan stated that it could not guarantee the Armenian team's security.

As yet, Armenian officials say they have no indication from their Azerbaijani counterparts that Baku wishes to continue such meetings. "Azerbaijan has to get rid of its complexes and establish dialogue between the two nations," Oskanian said

Concern about Azerbaijan's alleged "complexes" is a frequent theme among Armenian observers these days. Recent bellicose statements by President Aliyev that Azerbaijan is "powerful enough to liberate our lands" have been widely interpreted in Yerevan as a sign that Baku has no interest in confidence-building overtures. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]

Oskanian, however, tends to downplay such statements as intended for a domestic audience. Similarly, many Azerbaijani analysts have interpreted these declarations as either politically motivated or intended for diplomatic game play.

Editor's Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.

Posted July 10, 2007 © Eurasianet