Georgia: Saakashvili makes new move in geopolitical chess match over South Ossetia

Molly Corso 4/12/07

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili believes he has found a way to break the stalemate over the renegade territory of South Ossetia, enabling Tbilisi to reestablish its authority there. But Russian officials warn that Saakashvili's latest maneuver will likely inflame tensions in the region.

Saakashvili presented a reshaped peace plan for South Ossetia in late March, the central element of which is the creation of a new Georgian administrative entity on South Ossetian territory. Prior to the separatist fighting in the early 1990s that left South Ossetia beyond Tbilisi's control, the territory enjoyed the status of an autonomous republic. Saakashvili's initiative would reestablish a formal connection between Tbilisi and roughly 40 percent of South Ossetian territory, encompassing villages inhabited primarily by ethnic Georgians.

Although the initiative is not yet a law – it passed on its second reading in parliament on April 11 by a 162

1 vote – Saakashvili has already tapped South Ossetia's alternative, de-facto leader, Dmitri Sanakoyev, to head the administrative body. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. According to media reports, final passage of Saakashvili's initiative should come within days.

As currently formulated, the draft law specifies that the new administrative entity should serve as a vehicle for: the "peaceful resolution of the conflict; restoring constitutional order in the area; protecting the rights and interests of people and ethnic groups living there; and creating appropriate conditions for democratic elections."

Last November, Sanakoyev was elected as the leader of South Ossetia's Georgian community in an unrecognized election. He proceeded to establish an ‘alternative' government in Kurta, a village four kilometers to the north of Tskhinvali, the capital of the separatist South Ossetian leadership. Saakashvili visited Sanakoyev on March 19, noting that the alternative de-facto leader has a "unique opportunity" for peace. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Tbilisi has stopped short of recognizing Sanakoyev's administraton as a legal political entity in South Ossetia, preferring to refer to him through his political movement, South Ossetian People For Peace. In an interview with Vremya Novostei on April 5, Gela Bezhuashvili, the foreign minister, noted that South Ossetian People For Peace has a "constructive attitude," contrasting sharply with an attitude in Tskhinvali that is "plainly destructive."

"We are prepared to continue the talks with our Abkhazian and South Ossetian compatriots, but the separatists turn down all our suggestions and put forth patently impossible demands," Bezhuashvili told Vremya Novostei. "South Ossetian People For Peace, the movement headed by Sanakoyev, is an organization promoting interaction."

Sanakoyev's de facto prime minister, Uruzmag Karkusov, maintains that Saakashvili's initiative will give Kurta-based authorities the ability to create the political and economic conditions necessary for peace. "We are working [already] four months, and in those four months we have started to realize projects that our opponents did not start to realize in 16 years," he told EurasiaNet in a telephone interview. "So to say that we can't do anything is not correct."

Russia, which serves as the South Ossetian leadership's chief sponsor, has heaped scorn on Saakashvili's plan. In a statement published March 29, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the Georgian government of attempting to sabotage the peace process and referred to the proposal as criminal. The Russian ambassador in Tbilisi, Vyacheslav Kovalenko, expressed concern that the move will whip up an already hostile atmosphere, possibly causing a "new surge in hostilities," the Russian business daily Kommersant reported on April 12. "It's a serious step. I don't think it was made in the right direction," Kommersant quoted Kovalenko as saying.

The South Ossetian leadership, headed by Eduard Kokoiti, has let it be known that it will not engage Sanakoyev, or any other representative of the movement he leads, in talks about the territory's future.

Saakashvili's move is not universally popular in Tbilisi. Gocha Jojua, a MP with the opposition National Forum party, was one of two votes against the draft law during the first parliamentary vote on April 5. Jojua maintains the initiative is nothing more than a "PR campaign" that will not enhance the peace process.

While members of the Georgian government maintain they will continue to negotiate with Kokoiti, Théa Kentchadze, project manager at The Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, noted it will be "very difficult" to balance both sides. "In the light of this draft law it would be difficult to balance the two tracks – further engagement with the Tskhinvali de-facto government, and continuous support of Kurta authorities," she said.

Kentchadze noted that the success of Saakashvili's latest peace plan will depend heavily on support from the international community – which to date has been wary of acknowledging Sanakoyev. According to her, the international community is currently in "waiting mode," wanting to see evidence of progress toward peace before throwing its support behind the initiative.

"[A]ny attempt, any development that will clarify the situation more, any event that will prove that the Sanakoyev government is better at responding to the needs of the population  the international community will see that," she said. "There is a lot of pressure to make this initiative a success story and I believe that everyone [in the Georgian government] recognizes this."

Posted April 12, 2007 © Eurasianet