Baltic Countries 2023 IFRC network multi-country plan (MAAES001 / MAALT001)

Excerpt

IFRC NETWORK ACTION IN 2023

Joint situational analysis

The Baltic countries of Estonia and Lithuania have faced new challenges in recent years, stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing impact of climate change.

Known as post-communist countries, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia share many geographical and political similarities. The countries have experienced significant shifts in their political history, from their establishment as independent states in 1918, the outbreak of World War II, the Soviet period and the re-establishment of their independence in the 1990s.

Although Lithuania is ranked 34th on the Human Development Index, a quarter of its population are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Socio‑economic disparities are increasing in the country as a result. Estonia has a population of 1.3 million, composed of various ethnic groups which include Estonians, Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians, Finns and others.

In 2021, the region faced a politically triggered population movement crisis originating in Belarus. Geopolitical tensions in the region have also increased public anxiety.

Communities in Estonia and Lithuania are experiencing significant growth of ageing populations. The proportion of people over 65 years old is now approximately 20 per cent of the overall population, with forecasts predicting an increase to approximately 30 per cent by early 2030. Family structures have become increasingly diverse, while high rates of emigration among young people have increased the proportion of elderly people living in the countries.

Declining population trends in the Baltic nations come as a result of numerous factors. The three most likely factors are economic migration, low birth rates and high mortality rates. Over the past decade, Latvia and Lithuania have experienced some of the most significant declines in population rates around the world.

Between 2008 and 2010, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were highly affected by the global financial crisis. Authorities implemented significant austerity measures to offset these impacts, particularly in Lithuania and Latvia, and the past decade has seen these countries overcome the crisis. The three countries appear to have recovered from a sharp decrease in youth employment following the economic crisis, especially in Latvia and Lithuania, and to a lesser extent in Estonia. The youth employment ratio has since increased; however, this may be the result of declining birth rates and high emigration trends.