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OVERVIEW
The humanitarian crisis in the region continues to deepen affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. Currently, 22.2- 22.7 million people are in highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3+). In Kenya, northern counties (Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir and Garissa) are projected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between March and June 2023. For Somalia, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is no longer considered the most likely scenario, however, agropastoralist population in Burkhaba district and IDP settlements in Baidoa and Banadir face a Risk of Famine if the 2023 Gu rains are worse than forecasted and assistance does not reach the most vulnerable. Although IPC analysis is not possible in Ethiopia at the moment, IPC compatible analysis demonstrates that in southern Ethiopia some areas are within IPC Phase 3 and 4 between March and June 2023.
Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia have seen approximately 198,291 refugees and asylum seekers into drought affected areas since January 2022. During this period, very concerning malnutrition trends amongst new refugee arrivals have been reported with critical rates of malnutrition (>15%) and rising SAM admission rates.
The drought has forcibly displaced up to 2.28 million internally displaced across the region. Highest displacement has been witnessed in Somalia accounting for approximately 1,400,000 IDPs followed by Ethiopia. It is expected for these figures to continue rising throughout the first half of 2023 causing increased congestion rates at IDP sites and tensions between communities.
Water insecurity continues to increase the risks of disease and protection. Dehydration, water-borne diseases (including Cholera), water-washed diseases (skin infections, trachoma), and malnutrition are present across the three countries. Number of people with highest deprivation/severity of water cannot be calculated at this time, however, the WASH clusters in all countries are working with partners to sharpen the targeting and figures.
Inflation and food prices continue to rise across the region. The above-average prices on critical food commodities such as maize and cereal continue to constrain household purchasing power and food access for the most vulnerable populations in the urban and rural areas.
The drought has created a severe protection crisis with frontline/community-based partners across the three countries reporting the lack of capacity needed to deliver services that meet global standards of care for GBV assistance. This creates major gaps in service delivery. It is reported that marginalized communities including those in hard to reach areas across the three countries are not receiving assistance and targeting by humanitarian agencies delivering critical life-saving assistance must ensure targeting is fit for purpose.
Water insecurity has also increased the risk of violence and exploitation as people have had to change water sources forcing women and children to travel longer distances.