Ukraine: Situation Report, 12 Oct 2022 [EN/UK]

HIGHLIGHTS

• As fighting has continued in the east and south, attacks across Ukraine on 10, 11 and 12 October killed and injured dozens more people and damaged critical infrastructure.

• The Russian Federation’s so-called annexation of Donetska, Khersonska, Luhanska and Zaporizka oblasts resulted in more uncertainty and insecurity for the people.

• There were reports of at least three civilian convoys shelled in the Kharkivska and Khersonska oblasts, as well as in Zaporizka oblast, where at least 25 people were killed.

• The UN and humanitarians have delivered aid to more people in the retaken areas of Kharkivska and Khersonska oblasts, reaching 13.4 million people across Ukraine since 24 February.

• Despite the escalation of hostilities and challenges of helping millions of Ukrainians prepare for winter, Humanitarian Coordinator Denise Brown pledged that aid will not stop.

ANALYSIS

General security and humanitarian situation

Fighting has continued in the east and south of Ukraine while shelling, and airstrikes were reported daily elsewhere. This included in the south-eastern city of Zaporizhzhia during much of the reporting period and then during a massive attack in cities right across the country on 10, 11 and 12 October – resulting in more civilian casualties and extensive damage to critical infrastructure. The shelling of civilian convoys in the eastern Kharkivska and southeastern Zaporizka oblasts reportedly killed and injured dozens of people.

While the so-called referendums on parts of Ukraine joining the Russian Federation – eastern Donetska and Luhanska, southern Khersonska, and south-eastern Zaporizka oblasts – were condemned by Ukraine and its Western partners. President Vladimir Putin went on to announce the annexation of the regions 30 September. The moves – along with the Russian Federation’s announcement on 21 September of a military mobilization – have been widely interpreted as contributing to the uncertainty and instability around the war, including on the issues of freedom of movement and humanitarian access. On 12 October the UN General Assembly passed a resolution stating the attempted annexation of these regions as illegal. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that, in at least some cases, men in the areas that are not under control of the Ukrainian Government are being conscripted to fight in the war on the side of the Russian Federation.

The shelling of a convoy of civilian vehicles in Zaporizka oblast on 30 September resulted in the reported deaths of at least 25 people and injuries to 50 more. The people in the convoy had reportedly planned to drive into the areas of the oblast that were beyond the control of the Government of Ukraine to deliver supplies and evacuate relatives. Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine Denise Brown was among those who condemned the attack while saying that, unfortunately, it was only one of the attacks leading to civilian casualties in Ukraine that day. On 1 October, it was reported that a similar incident had occurred the previous week, likely on 25 September, when a convoy of civilian vehicles was shelled near Kupiansk in Kharkivska oblast – killing at least 20 people, including 13 children and a pregnant woman. On 7 October, a humanitarian security report identified at least five civilians killed and another five injured in an air attack while part of a civilian convoy in Khersonska oblast.

Other incidents showed the ongoing dangers to everyone in areas where the Government of Ukraine regained control, especially in Kharkivska oblast. Reports from 25 September show two civilians seriously injured in shelling while waiting to receive supplies in Kozacha Lopan, north of Kharkiv and along the Russian border. Ongoing reports also indicated that civilians had been killed and injured in landmine explosions in multiple locations, including when an ambulance reportedly set off a mine explosion near Balakliia on 2 October, killing the driver and injuring a medical assistant. The NGO Nonviolent Peaceforce on 23 September published the report Kharkiv Snapshot: Civilian Protection Needs & Responses in Ukraine – focusing on the risks and needs in the areas, where the Government of Ukraine regained control.

A massive wave of air and missile attacks across Ukraine on 10 October, and continuing the next two days, killed and injured scores of people, including in the centre of Kyiv, and damaged critical infrastructure – especially power, heating, water and gas utilities. The State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SESU) reported at least 120 civilian casualties, including 19 people killed. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he was “deeply shocked by today's large-scale missile attacks by the armed forces of the Russian Federation on cities across Ukraine that reportedly resulted in widespread damage to civilian areas and led to dozens of people being killed and injured” and added that, “this constitutes another unacceptable escalation of the war and, as always, civilians are paying the highest price.”

Since the full-scale war began in February, verified civilian casualties in Ukraine have now exceeded 15,500. The Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) verified, as of 9 October, at least 15,592 civilian casualties – with 6,221 people having been killed and 9,371 injured. Most civilian casualties continued to be recorded and verified in the eastern Donetska and Luhanska oblasts – 56 per cent or a total of 8,653 casualties, including 3,696 people killed and 4,957 injured. HRMMU continued to stress that it believes the actual figures are much higher. On 27 September, HRMMU published its Report on the Human Rights Situation in Ukraine: 1 February-31 July 2022 – covering issues including damage and destruction to civilian objects and economic and social rights. And the World Health Organization, through its Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care, showed that verified attacks on health care in Ukraine – some 550 since 24 February – represent approximately three-quarters of the global total of 750 over the same period. Finally, the UN Human Rights Council reported on 23 September that the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, based on its investigations into events in northern Chernihivska and Kyivska, north-eastern Sumska and eastern Kharkivska oblasts, “has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine.

Concerning internal displacement, assessments indicate that the situation remains far from stable. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported in its General Population Survey Round 9 that, while the total number of internally displaced Ukrainians decreased by more than 732,000 between August and September to 6,243,000 million, more than 740,000 people countrywide also said they are considering moving before the start of the heating season and winter. Authorities in the western Lvivska oblast told colleagues from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) that they are among those expecting an increase in displaced people because of the ongoing fighting and lack of basic utilities in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine. Among the more in-depth studies on internal displacement, REACH Initiative on 30 September published a report on needs, responses and gaps – just days after REACH also posted, on 26 September, an assessment focusing on central Dnipropetrovska oblast. Taking a wider view of the response throughout the war, the International Crisis Group on 26 September published the study Responding to Ukraine’s Displacement Crisis: From Speed to Sustainability – arguing in part that “the grassroots effort organized to help them is not sustainable” and that, “donors should keep channeling aid to civil society but lay the groundwork for the state to step in.”