Afghanistan Situation Regional Refugee Response Plan (RRP) January-December 2023

7.90M TOTAL TARGET POPULATION IN 2023

USD 613M INTER-AGENCY FUNDING REQUIREMENTS IN 2023

TO SUPPORT 5 HOST COUNTRIES: IRAN, PAKISTAN, TAJIKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN AND UZBEKISTAN

65 PARTNERS ENGAGED IN THE RESPONSE

The situation inside Afghanistan remains complex. There has been an improvement in overall security since August 2021 and a marked reduction in civilian casualties, enabling humanitarian access to all provinces, including areas which had been inaccessible for decades. However, the humanitarian, economic, and human rights situation continues to deteriorate significantly, particularly for women and girls. The recent restrictions on women and girls’ participation in society in Afghanistan impact access to secondary and tertiary education, freedom of movement, and ability to work for non-governmental organizations, among other facets of life, and increase the risk of genderbased violence. Widespread food insecurity, soaring inflation and high economic instability, exacerbated by sanctions, limited livelihoods, and more frequent and severe climate shocks have left vulnerable populations in an increasingly precarious situation. The World Bank estimates that Afghanistan’s economy contracted by a cumulative 30-35 per cent over 2021 and 2022. Two thirds of households report difficulties in covering their most basic expenses

For 2023, the Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) covering inside Afghanistan (separate to this appeal) has identified 28.3 million people in need, an increase from 24 million in 2022. Since the start of 2021, according to government estimates, at least 1.6 million Afghans have arrived in neighbouring host countries. This is despite borders being tightly managed, with many Afghans making their way informally through unofficial border crossing points. The Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran (GIRI) estimates that 1 million Afghans have arrived since the start of 2021 although deportations have occurred on a large scale and significant (seasonal) circular movements have continued. Some 57,000 of these new arrivals have approached UNHCR requesting assistance and protection in Iran. Of the 600,000 new arrivals reported by the Government of Pakistan, approximately 256,000 have approached UNHCR. According to the Government of Uzbekistan, 13,020 Afghan citizens arrived in the country since January 2021, while UNHCR has recorded some 5,700 new arrivals in Tajikistan. In 2023, a steady flow of new arrivals is expected, including via unofficial border crossings.

Meanwhile, in respect of onward movement, the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAS) reported that in October 2022, applications lodged by Afghans in European Union Member States plus Norway and Switzerland exceeded 15,000 for the first time since September 2021, in the aftermath of the Taliban takeover. In addition to new arrivals, neighbouring countries continue to host over 2 million registered refugees from previous waves of displacement, and a further 5 million Afghans of varying statuses, the vast majority being hosted by the Islamic Republics of Iran and Pakistan. The continued flow of new arrivals, combined with arrivals since 2021 and large in situ populations, places a significant additional burden on host countries. Voluntary returns to Afghanistan are expected on a small-medium scale. Some 6,000 Afghan registered refugees have been recorded voluntarily returning to Afghanistan from neighbouring countries in 2022, which represents a significant increase compared to 2020 and 2021 but remains low compared to previous years. Inside Afghanistan, UNHCR has recorded over 1.3 million internally displaced Afghans who have already voluntarily returned since the end of the conflict, but some 3.2 million people remain internally displaced by conflict.

UNHCR estimates that 300,000 IDPs may return to their homes inside Afghanistan in 2023 as well as another 60,000 refugees from neighbouring countries. Nonetheless, the ongoing situation in Afghanistan continues to constrain the ability and willingness of Afghans to return (highlighted in UNHCR’s Guidance Note on the International Protection Needs of People Fleeing Afghanistan, updated in February 2023), and the number of Afghans hosted in neighbouring countries is not expected to alter significantly in 2023.

For 2023, it is expected that Afghan populations, including new arrivals, will remain in need of significant support. As well as responding to the basic needs of the most vulnerable populations, investments in infrastructure including health, education, and water and energy networks require major attention. RRP partners will seek to take an area-based approach, anchoring the response in national systems which will support host governments to continue to include Afghans in national systems, while also supporting the refugee-hosting communities who use these systems. Opportunities for durable solutions will also be pursued wherever available, including resettlement and complementary pathways.