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Overview of Acute Food Insecurity
Despite ongoing interventions, food insecurity in Madagascar’s Grand South and Grand South-East remains high, with 1.64 million people classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4), corresponding to 37% of the population analyzed. The persisting food and nutrition crisis is exacerbated by prolonged drought, insecurity and the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The most-affected districts, classified in Emergency, include Amboasary Atsimo, Ambovombe Androy, Ampanihy and Tsihombe, hosting nearly 300,000 people among the 400,000 people in these conditions. Humanitarian food assistance has provided broad coverage in terms of the number of beneficiaries over the past few months, thus averting a catastrophic situation. Nevertheless, this assistance remains insufficient to meet all kilocaloric needs and to sustainably address household consumption deficits, leaving people in continuous need of urgent action.
During the lean season (January to April 2022), due to the expected increase in rations provided by humanitarian food assistance, especially in the Grand South, a slight decrease in the number of people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) is expected, while that in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) will likely remain similar. Thus, around 334,000 people (8% of the population analysed) are estimated to remain in IPC Phase 4 and around 1.3 million people (30% of the population analyzed) in IPC Phase 3, adding up to around 1.64 million people in IPC Phases 3 or 4. However, the districts of Amboasary Atsimo, Ambovombe Androy and Ampanihy West will likely remain classified in IPC Phase 4.
A significant improvement in food security is expected during the second projection period (May to August 2022), the harvest period, with meteorological forecasts predicting normal or above-average rainfall that is favourable for crop production. The districts of Betioky, Betroka, Tulear II and Taolagnaro will likely shift to IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). In this period, for which levels of assistance have yet to be determined, approximately 1.1 million people will be in high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or 4), corresponding to 25% of the population analysed. Around 182,000 people (4% of the population analyzed) are estimated to remain in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and around 912,000 (21% of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).