El Salvador Humanitarian Needs Overview 2023 (December 2022)

Context, shocks, ongoing developments and impacts of the crisis

Since 2020, El Salvador has suffered the health and socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the consequences of four extreme weather events: two tropical storms (Amanda and Cristobal) and two hurricanes (Eta and Iota), which left an estimated 1,7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance (HNO 2021). In 2022, rising prices and the impacts of an active rainy season continue to create deteriorating conditions that are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities.

El Salvador remains vulnerable to the effects of the current global economic crisis, given its levels of public debt, high inflation, dependence on raw materials and increasing fiscal pressure. In the Economist Intelligence analysis,1 El Salvador is listed as the country most vulnerable to the conflict in Ukraine, with its score of 4.14 (from 1 to 5) ranking as the highest among Latin American countries.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has altered the patterns of global trade, production and consumption of commodities. This disruption has directly affected the price of the Basic Food Basket (BFB) in El Salvador, which increased by 13 per cent (US$235.47) for urban areas and 12.6 per cent ($173.74) for rural areas in June 2022, compared to the same month in 2021.

Small and medium-sized producers face difficulties in accessing fertilisers, affecting the country’s crop yields for the 2022-2023 agricultural cycles. Russia and Belarus are the world’s main exporters of fertiliser, accounting for 38 per cent of potash fertilisers, 17 per cent of compound fertilisers and 15 per cent of nitrogen fertilisers. Prices as of March 2022, when compared to pre-pandemic levels (2019), show record increases of 270 per cent for urea and of 150 to 200 per cent for potassium and phosphorus fertilisers.

As a net food importer, El Salvador is affected when supplier countries apply export restrictions to protect their population or markets. This situation is becoming increasingly untenable as a growing number of food- producing countries have established export bans and restrictions to secure domestic supplies and reduce local prices. The World Bank reports that as of 15 July 2022, 18 countries have implemented 27 food export bans and 7 have issued 11 food export restriction measures.

Additionally, multiple national flood emergencies in 2022 have kept the National Civil Protection System in a constant state of activity. On 5 July, the Legislative Assembly declared a 15-day national emergency following Hurricane Bonnie and the subsequent flooding that caused deaths, loss of crops, damage to houses and hundreds of landslides. Meanwhile, in September alone, the rainy season triggered flooding across the country that left 19 people dead, affected more than 70 homes, caused 298 landslides and blocked 273 roads. On 8 October, Tropical Storm Julia prompted the Government to declare another state of emergency and suspend all school activity due to heavy rains in most parts of the country. In under 24 hours, Julia left a week’s worth of accumulated rainfall in the eastern part of the country, affecting 58 municipalities. As of 10 October, 2,641 people remained in 103 shelters and 10 people were reported dead.

In 2021, the homicide rate decreased to 18.0 per 100,000 people, marking the fifth consecutive year that homicide rates have declined. However, violent deaths of women (also known as femicides) increased from 3.4 per every 100,000 women in 2020 to 3.9 in 2021, laying bare El Salvador’s longstanding struggle with Gender- Based Violence (GBV).