Azerbaijani president seeks medical treatment in US, amid building tension in Baku

Mevlut Katik 8/06/03

Ailing Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev departed a Turkish hospital August 6 for ongoing treatment in the United States. The move comes amid escalating tension in Baku over the elevation of the president's son, Ilham, to prime minister, and the looming possibility of a dynastic political succession.

A representative of the Office of Turkey's Chief of the General Staff officially announced Aliyev's transfer from the Gulhane military hospital in Ankara to the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio. That top Turkish military officials appeared to be involved in the decision indicates that Aliyev's health is viewed as a sensitive geopolitical issue with potential ramifications for Caspian Basin oil and gas development and the construction of energy export routes. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The news that Aliyev was headed for the Cleveland Clinic – where in recent years he has been treated for heart, prostate and other ailments – offers substantive proof that he is alive. The Azerbaijani president had largely stayed out of public view since his hospitalization in Turkey in early July. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In recent days, rumors spread in Azerbaijan, fuelled by opposition media reports, that Aliyev had died.

Top Azerbaijani officials have insisted that Aliyev remains in charge of day-to-day affairs and that his health is "normal." But the fact that the president headed to the United States for further treatment, rather than return to Azerbaijan, lends credence to opposition claims that Aliyev is seriously ill.

Aliyev's transfer from the Turkish military hospital to Ankara's Esenboga Airport took place under tight security, which helped prevent journalists from filming or photographing the infirm Azerbaijani leader. Azerbaijan's Turan New Agency reported that Aliyev was conscious, but unable to move. Turkish doctors reportedly accompanied Aliyev on the trip. Turan said Aliyev may undergo another heart operation, provided that doctors determine he is strong enough to endure such a procedure.

Political analysts in Baku believe those in Aliyev's inner circle want to keep the president alive for as long as possible – at least until the presidential election scheduled for October 15. Doing so could provide an element of stability during what already promises to be a turbulent campaign period.

In becoming prime minister August 4, Ilham moved to first in line to succeed his father in the event that the elder Aliyev died or became unable to perform his duties. Opposition media outlets have portrayed the appointment as a "coup d'etat." Administration opponents have insisted the process under which Ilham became prime minister violated the country's constitution. They also maintain that the country's legislation prohibits a sitting prime minister from running for president. Ilham is the ruling New Azerbaijan Party's candidate in the presidential vote.

"The [Aliyev] family's logic is that even a small part of the state economy, which is the family's monopoly, cannot be given to any other person," said a commentary in the Azadliq newspaper.

In an indication that administration officials are troubled by the opposition charges, Ilham Aliyev announced that he would take a leave of absence in order to run for president. A statement released by the prime minister's office August 6 said first deputy premier, Artur Rasizade – the very man that Ilham replaced two days earlier – would serve as the interim head of government.

Opposition rhetoric indicates that Azerbaijan is approaching a pivotal moment in its political development. Opposition leaders clearly believe that if Ilham Aliyev manages to succeed his father as president, all hope for the development of a pluralistic political environment would be lost over the medium, and possibly even the long term. As such, Azerbaijan's political opposition appears to be gearing up to make a stand, even pondering violent action to prevent from being shut out of the political process.

"Everyone knows very well that Heidar Aliyev was planning to transfer power to his son," prominent opposition editor Rauf Arifoglu wrote in the Yeni Musavat daily on August 5. "Still, at the bottom of our hearts, we all hoped that such impudence could not happen here. Or at least, we though that America and Turkey would not allow them [Aliyev's administration] to do so."

Meanwhile, a commentary in the opposition Hurriyyat daily raised the spectre of civil conflict, hinting that the political opposition, feeling it had nothing to lose, might try to pre-empt a crackdown with vigorous protest action.

"Observers believe that by this move [Ilham Aliyev's appointment as prime minister], authorities have in fact created grounds for chaos inside the country," the commentary said. "Political circles realize that the next step after Ilham Aliyev's appointment as prime minister will definitely be an attempt to make him president. Therefore, a harsh reaction inside the country to authorities' illegitimate move is unavoidable."

Editor's Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist group.

Posted August 6, 2003 © Eurasianet