Armenia concentrates on balancing act between Russia and Georgia

Haroutiun Khachatrian 11/08/06

Worsening relations between Georgia and Russia continue to pose a difficult problem for Armenia, as it tries to maintain some form of balance in its relations with the two sides.

The effect of these tensions for the Armenian economy remains a paramount concern. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive.] Armenian President Robert Kocharian's October 30-November 1 state visit to Russia, which included meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, was a case in point. In remarks to reporters, Kocharian noted that while Russia's transportation blockade with Georgia could pose difficulties for bilateral trade between Russia and Armenia, "serious [Russian] investment projects" would help compensate Yerevan for any economic damage done by the Georgian embargo, the ITAR-TASS quoted Kocharian as saying. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive.]

Those investments appear to be growing. Russian energy giant Gazprom's acquisition of a controlling stake in the country's gas distribution network and, through this, potential control over an Armenian section of an Iranian gas pipeline, its recent takeover of the fifth unit of the Hrazdan electricity plant, and Russian company Rusal's modernization of aluminum manufacturer Armenal are among the most prominent of these "serious" investment projects. Unlike neighboring Georgia, Armenia will see its current $110 per 1,000 cubic meters price for Gazprom gas frozen until 2009 in return for transferring ownership of the Hrazdan unit to the Russian company, the government has announced. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive.]

On November 3, announcement was also made that the Russian firm VimpelCom has purchased a 90 percent stake in ArmenTel, the country's main mobile telecommunications carrier. The government will retain the remaining 10 percent stake in the company.

Despite these signs of robust business ties, concerns about Russia's position toward Armenia have been growing since mid-October, when nationalist Russian parliamentarian Konstantin Zatulin, a member of the pro-Kremlin party United Russia, protested at an October 17 meeting of the Russian-Armenian inter-parliamentary commission in Yerevan that Armenia "does not support its strategic partner [Russia]" in its conflict with Georgia. Zatulin, who has previously cast himself as pro-Armenian on the issue of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, called on Yerevan to choose between "normal relations" with Russia or Georgia, the daily newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak reported.

Zatunin's statements met with almost unanimous protest by the Armenian political elite, although some, like Armen Ashotian, a member of the governing Republican Party, have stressed that the remark is the view of one politician, not the official position of the Russian Federation.

Nonetheless, Armenian officials have continued to address the Russian-Georgian dispute cautiously. "Current Russian-Georgian relations are these countries' internal problem," Prime Minister Andranik Margarian said at a joint press conference on October 24 with Belarusian Prime Minister Sergei Sidorski. "Armenia ... should not interfere with the resolution of this problem."

Margarian, however, has stated that Armenia is ready to "help with the... solution" for the impasse between President Putin and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili if asked by Russia or Georgia.

So far, neither Moscow nor Tbilisi has shown interest in mediation. At a November 1 meeting on the sidelines of a Moscow gathering of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation, Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian and Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili met, but details on the conversation were scarce. In a succinct statement, the Armenian Foreign Ministry stated that the two men discussed "issues of bilateral relations, the influence of Russian-Georgian relations on the region and possibilities for softening the current tension," the news service Mediamax reported.

Before the talks, Georgian Ambassador to Armenia Revaz Gachechiladze, in an October 30 meeting with National Assembly Chairman Tigran Torosian, thanked Armenia for its "balanced approach."

Greater speculation about Armenia's relations with Georgia and Russia has surfaced in media coverage of the October 10 arrest of Vahagn Chakhalian, one of the leaders of the Miasnakan Javakhk, or United Javakhk, non-governmental organization in Georgia's predominantly ethnic Armenian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti. Chakhalian was jailed for two months pending trial for having allegedly "illegally" crossed Georgia's border with Armenia. On October 30, he was released. Some local publications have argued that the release was at Russia's request.

Chakhalian's arrest surprised most Armenians since no visa regime exists between the two states; the arrest of an ethnic Armenian for entering Armenia struck many as strange. Some members of the opposition, including the Dashink Party of former Nagorno-Karabakh warlord Samvel Babayan, said the arrest had been made at the request of Tbilisi officials who wanted to curtail United Javakhk's support for ethnic Armenians in Samtskhe-Javakheti. (The leader of a rival non-governmental organization to Miasnakan Javakhk has gone even further, charging that Chakhalian was working with Georgian special services to destabilize the region and push ethnic Armenians out of the area.) The movement's opposition to the construction of the Kars-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki railroad, which will connect the region with Turkey, was seen as the reason for such action.

Both pro-government and opposition publications share strong opposition to this project. Yerevan fears the line would further isolate Armenia, currently hemmed in by blockades on its borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan. On October 19, the pro-government daily newspaper Hayots Ashkharh published an analysis that argued that the railroad would damage ties between Armenia and Georgia, and urged the Saakashvili government not to harm its relations with Armenia for "a $200 million bribe by Turks and Azeris."

The opposition newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak, a pro-Western publication close to former President Levon Ter-Petrossian's Armenian National Movement, has taken a different approach. In its October 19 issue, the paper argued that Russia could use Miasnakan Javakhk to put pressure on Georgia. The newspaper Iravunk followed that line on November 3, saying that Miasnakan Javakhk's "strongly pro-Russian" position and activities are "certain to worry Armenian Prime Minister ... Margarian and [Defense Minister] Serzh Sarkisian" as they pursue dialogue with the West.

The government, to date, has not responded to the allegations.

Editor's Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.

Posted November 8, 2006 © Eurasianet