Kazakhstan experiences political shift

Joanna Lillis 10/17/06

Kazakhstan is experiencing a political shift, as President Nursultan Nazarbayev is striving to make peace with his moderate critics.

The clearest signal of a rapprochement was evident in early October, when the head of the Ak Zhol Party, Alikhan Baimenov, opted to take up his seat in parliament. He became the sole representative of Kazakhstan's political opposition in the legislature. For first nine months of 2006, Kazakhstan was the scene of a markedly high level of political tension, underscored by the murder of opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbayev in February. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Baimenov's decision to assume a legislative mandate is an indicator that a period of relative political tranquility could be in the offing.

The Ak Zhol party had declined to take up the seat – the only one gained by an opposition party in the 2004 parliamentary election – to protest at what it said was a flawed poll. The OSCE agreed that the vote fell short of international standards. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ak Zhol decided to reverse course at a party congress in late September. "The congress decided – in view of the political situation in the country, and the fact that modernization is only possible with political consensus – to take up the parliamentary seat it won in the 2004 election," Baimenov told a press conference.

Addressing delegates before they voted on the motion to adopt a new policy, Baimenov spoke of engaging with the authorities rather than appeasing them: "A consensus between political forces and elites is extremely important. A consensus does not mean appeasement or endless plaudits.... Having a consensus does not rule out constructive criticism, conflicts or political struggle on tactical matters of domestic or foreign policy."

"A consensus between elites is ... the basis on which a flourishing and strong country can be built," Baimenov added.

Several days before the Ak Zhol party congress, Baimenov met with Nazarbayev to discuss domestic policy matters. The same day, the president met with another prominent opposition leader, Zharmakhan Tuyakbai.

The Ak Zhol faction led by Baimenov is a rump movement left behind following a party split over policy disputes in 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Those making the break with Baimenov named their faction Nagyz Ak Zhol, or the True Ak Zhol Party, which has generally maintained a more skeptical stance toward the presidential administration.. Some observers believe that officials actively encouraged Ak Zhol's split. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Whatever the motivation and the circumstances, Ak Zhol's break-up certainly worked to the government's advantage. In the 2005 presidential election, both Baimenov and Tuyakbai, the Nagyz Ak Zhol-backed candidate, ran and split the opposition vote. As a result, Nazarbayev handily won reelection with 91 per cent of the vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some political analysts in Kazakhstan say the presidential administration's move to reconcile with the moderate opposition is a purely tactical maneuver. Deep down, some observers say, Nazarbayev is interested only in cosmetic change aimed at fostering a more favorable political image of Kazakhstan in the international community. A commentary posted on the Zonakz.net website suggested that Baimenov's participation in parliament stands to have no tangible influence on policy making, which remains tightly controlled by the executive branch. "Anyone who is acquainted with the history of parliamentarianism in Kazakhstan knows very well that for many years the presidential power has done everything possible to weaken the legislature," the commentary said.

Ak Zhol's policy turnabout serves mainly to increase the political isolation of its rival, Nagyz Ak Zhol, whose co-leader, Bolat Abilov, has faced a string of criminal cases that he maintains is politically-motivated. He was found guilty in July of assaulting a police officer and given a three-year suspended sentence. A trial that began in July, centering on his business activities some 10 years ago, is still pending. As a result of these criminal cases, Abilov is banned from leaving the country and from standing for parliament until his suspended sentence expires. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Another opposition party, Alga, has been battling for the past year to gain official registration. The Justice Ministry last turned down its application for registration in April, citing irregularities.

Critics of Ak Zhol's decision to engage the Nazarbayev administration point to Alga's registration difficulties to substantiate their argument that the administration remains intent on keeping a lid on the country's political life. The authorities argue that they have created a forum for democratization debate – the State Democracy Commission. The commission held a session in early October to chart a reform course over the near- and medium-term. Nagyz Ak Zhol has so far boycotted the commission, arguing that it is too heavily-weighted with pro-government figures to serve as a reform vehicle.

Editor's Note: Joanna Lillis is a freelance writer who specializes in Central Asian affairs.

Posted October 17, 2006 © Eurasianet