Israel-OPT: Opening of Gaza's borders not imminent - analysts

JERUSALEM, 15 May 2008 (IRIN) - The recent visit by Egyptian intelligence chief Gen Omar Sulaiman to Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories was supposed to help advance a ceasefire deal between the Palestinian militant groups in the Gaza Strip, headed by Hamas, and the Jewish state.

However, the likelihood of this is low, many analysts here say, with the most probable best case scenario being a reduction in the intensity of the conflict, lessening the chances of civilians on both sides of the Gaza-Israeli border getting hurt or killed.

While Sulaiman was conducting meetings, a GRAD-style rocket fired from Gaza hit a commercial centre in the Israeli city of Ashkelon, just north of Gaza. Israel viewed it as one of the most serious rocket attacks by the militants, due to the nature of the missile fired and the distance it travelled.

Ehud Olmert, Israel's prime minister, said after the Ashkelon attack, he hoped Israel would not have to "act against Hamas in other ways with military power that Israel hasn't yet started to use in a serious manner".

Last month, 12 Palestinian factions agreed to a ceasefire with Israel, or at least to respect one if the other factions and the Israelis reached a deal. However, the conditions put forward by the Palestinians were unacceptable to Israel, officials told IRIN, and Israeli demands of the Palestinians were also deemed untenable. The visiting Egyptian general was apparently trying to bridge the wide gaps.

Amos Yadlin, the head of Israeli Military Intelligence, told the Haaretz newspaper that a short-term lull did not solve Israel's long-term concerns and that any deal that did not include captured soldier Gilad Shalit would be problematic. He said Hamas's demands for a long-term ceasefire, which would include the return of millions of refugees to what is now Israel, blocked that option.

The lack of an agreement means that the crossing points on the Israeli-Gaza border remained open only for the import of basic goods, deemed humanitarian needs by Israel. Exports are banned, as they have been for nearly a year.

Gaza-Egypt border still closed

Meanwhile, Gaza's only border crossing to Egypt, the Rafah terminal at the southern end of the Strip, was also closed.

Egypt has not yet agreed to open the border for regular use, though analysts remained divided on whether they would change their minds without Israeli consent.

Hamas is expected to send a delegation to Cairo on 16 May to hold weekend talks on the truce with Egyptian officials, following an invitation by Sulaiman.

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