Assessment for Hispanics in the United States of America

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Since the Hispanic community consists of so many different subgroups it is difficult to assess their collective risks for protest and rebellion. While it is possible that some form of militant organization may begin or resume activity, most likely in Puerto Rico, the overall potential for rebellion is quite low.

Despite the fact that some general risk factors for protest are not present among Hispanics, such as political restrictions or repression, the potential for continued protest is quite high. Hispanics continue to be economically disadvantaged. Efforts by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service to identify and expel illegal immigrants inevitably spill over onto legal immigrants. As the group's share of the population increases, issues such as instruction in Spanish, the use of Spanish in business and the public sector, and Hispanic participation in universities and corporate boardrooms will become more important. As a result there is substantial potential for greater political mobilization and political action among Hispanics. Perhaps the biggest unknown is whether the diverse organizations representing the Hispanic community can find common cause and channel the discontents of a fragmented group into politically effective demands.

Analytic Summary

The Hispanic community in the United States comprised roughly 13% of the total population as of 2003, but they are the fastest growing minority in the country. While they tend to be considered one large group, they are actually comprised of several sub-groups most of whom originate from different parts of the Americas. While most of these groups - especially recent arrivals - have a strong sense of community, the Hispanic community as a whole is not highly cohesive (COHESX9 = 4). Compared to the dominant Anglos, the Hispanics have a different culture (CUSTOM = 1), and many are physically identifiable (RACE = 2), but the most salient trait of the group is a separate language (LANG = 1). The various sub-groups are regionally concentrated (GROUPCON = 2), with most people of Cuban descent located in Florida, Puerto Ricans in the New York area (and the Island of Puerto Rico), and Mexican-Americans in the states bordering Mexico (Texas, California, New Mexico, Arizona). Some Hispanics are descendants of the first Europeans to settle in the Southwest during the Spanish colonial period. Much of the Mexican-American community resides in territory which was once part of Mexico, until it was annexed after the Mexican-American War in 1848 (AUTON = 1). As a result, along with the accession of Puerto Rico after the Spanish-American war, many Hispanics are long-term residents of the United States (TRADITN = 1). Others, such as the Cuban American population, started to arrive in large numbers after World War II, and especially after the Cuban Revolution of 1959.

Hispanics face demographic disadvantages (DEMSTR03 = 4), mainly due to high birth rates and poorer health conditions. Adding to the problem is the large number of Hispanic immigrants who enter the United States every year. A substantial proportion of new immigrants enter the United States illegally and as a result lack access to some of the social and health benefits available to the rest of the population. While Hispanics are not subject to any collective political restrictions, they have been marginalized in the past (POLDIS03 = 1). Due to their geographic clustering, Hispanics have scored successes in both major political parties in having Hispanic officials nominated and elected at the local, state, and federal level. Historically the group has been discriminated against economically but has benefited from the same equal opportunity programs designed to improve the economic status of African-Americans (ECODIS03 = 1). One factor that has limited the effectiveness of these programs, and has limited economic opportunities for many Hispanics, is that many new immigrants do not speak English. There is substantial debate within the Hispanic community as well as the larger society about whether it is best to deal with this issue by emphasizing bilingual education or, alternatively, by English immersion programs. But it is clear that Hispanics with limited English have tended to do poorly in schools and therefore have little access to higher paying jobs. There has not been any overt government repression against Hispanics but there have been recent reports of communal conflict between Hispanics and whites including some violent attacks that have resulted in fatalities (COMCON01-03 = 3).

Hispanic interests are represented by numerous organizations. The largest is the National Council of La Raza. A newer organization is the National Association for the Advancement of Hispanic People (NAAHP), while a smaller but well established organization is the League of the United Latin American Citizens. There are also many organizations concerned with issues specific to sub-groups' countries of origin, for example anti-Castro organizations among Cuban-Americans and supporters of Puerto Rican independence. Mexican-Americans have substantial and growing support from the Mexican government

Beyond calls for political independence that are specific to Puerto Rico, Hispanics share some common concerns and grievances. While they have made strides in electoral representation, many Hispanics want more input at all levels of government. There are widespread concerns that recent immigrants, legal as well as illegal, face informal discrimination. Other demands include better economic opportunities and the right to bilingual education. At the crux of most of these grievances is the inability of many Hispanics to gain the education necessary to compete for the best jobs. For many Hispanics the answer is bilingual education, so that they can make the transition to English over time and without losing the language which is an essential aspect of their culture.

While some large protests were reported in the early 1950s (PROT50X = 5), throughout the late 20th century Hispanic protests tended to be comprised of smaller rallies over local issues (PROT65X = 2). This trend has continued, with demonstrations of varying size seen over issues such as stopping the United States Navy from using a Puerto Rican island for bombing exercises, to immigration protests, and recent demonstrations in Miami over the Elian Gonzalez incident (PROT00 = 3). Between 2001 and 2003, protests tended to be symbolic in nature, although recent national elections also saw increased attempts at mobilizing Hispanic voters (PROT01-03 = 2). Small scale terrorism has been carried out by advocates of Puerto Rican independence since the 1950s (REB50X = 1) but none since 1992 (REB93 = 0).

References

Gurr, Ted R. ed. Violence in America vol 2. California: Sage, 1989.

Report on the Americas, 26(2), September, 1992.

FBI yearly reports on Terrorism in the United States, 1989 to 1994.

Minorities at Risk Phase I summary

Facts on File, 1990-1995.

Keesing's Record of World Events, 1990-1995, 2001-2003.

Lexis-Nexis news reports, 1995-2003.