Assessment for Sindhis in Pakistan

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Sindhis are unlikely to take their political opposition to the level of rebellion, although radical groups like the Jeay Sindh and the SNP have been responsible for low levels of violence in the past. However, Sindhi protest is likely to continue while the Punjabi-dominated military government of Musharraf remains in power. While inter-ethnic violence in the Sindh province has been a real problem in the past, intercommunal cooperation has grown since 2000, with fragile coalitions forming between Sindhis and Mohajirs, Baluchis, Pashtuns. With these ethnic groups banding together in protest against the Musharraf government, the risk for intercommunal violence is fairly low, although the potential for flare-ups does remain. Political stability in Sindh will depend on the continuance and growth of this alliance. The strengthening of this alliance could also facilitate meeting the sometimes desperate resource needs of both indigenous and immigrant populations in Sindh.

Analytic Summary

Sindhis are the original inhabitants of the lower Indus River basin, including what is now the Sindh province, located in the southeastern corner of Pakistan. The country's most diverse state, Sindh is also the home of Mohajirs, Baluchs, Pashtuns and Punjabis. Immigration into Sindh, in particular to Pakistan's commercial center Karachi, has left Sindhis a minority in their home state, where they are heavily concentrated in the rural regions (GROUPCON = 3). Traditionally Hindus, some Sindhis converted to Islam under the Moghul Empire. Upon partition in 1947, many remaining Hindu Sindhi emigrated to India, while Urdu-speaking Indian Muslims, called Mohajirs, took their place, concentrating in urban areas in the Sindhi province. Influxes of Punjabis from Pakistan's overcrowded northeast, Baluchis from the underdeveloped west, and Afghan and Pakistani Pashtuns from the northern territories have also crowded into Sindh, threatening Sindhi control of their own region.

Unlike other non-Punjabi groups, Sindhis have led two national governments, under Z.A. Bhutto and his daughter Benazir Bhutto, through the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). The execution of Z.A. Bhutto in 1979 by the Punjabi general Ziaul Haq further exacerbated tension between the two ethnic groups and led to a political situation that has counter-posed Sindhi-led civilian movements against a Punjabi-led military establishment for control of the Pakistan government bureaucracy. The corruption trials of Benazir Bhutto and her husband, instigated by the Punjabi prime minister Nawaz Sharif in the 1990s, have led to further disintegration of ethnic relations; in 2002, the registration of cases involving Ms. Benazir Bhutto continued to complicate relations. Sharif also began mass arrests of Sindh politicians in 1999, a situation that ended only with the military coup of Musharraf. There have been no reports of arrests since 2001 (REP0101-03 = 1).

Sindhi protest has closely mirrored the rise and fall of PPP-led governments, peaking during times of military (i.e. Punjabi) rule (PROT94-PROT97 = 3; PROT98 = 4). While the Musharraf coup was initially welcomed by opposition groups, including Sindhi political parties, those groups quickly became disillusioned by Musharraf's promises to restore democracy. The honeymoon had ended by early 2000, and Sindhi protest has increased since then (PROT01-03 = 3). Some examples of protest include a 2001 protest against the building of a canal in the Sindh province and a 2003 hunger strike against the closures of a dozen Sindhi newspapers. While Sindhis are not responsible for all the protests in the Sindhi province, police in the Sindhi province reported that in the first 5 months of 2002, 1457 agitational activities took place in the province, 15 percent of which were by the Sindhis (The Pakistan Newswire, June 11, 2002).

Sindhis are fragmented in their political organization (ORGCOH = 4) as well as religiously. Some Sindhis are Hindu, although the large majority are Muslim. Despite this, Sindhis still share a strong identity (COHESX9 = 5). Among Muslim Sindhis, many practice a Sufi Islam, which rejects the politicization of religion. Hence, most Sindhi political organizations have a distinctly secular outlook. Sindhi political organization began at partition. However, Sindhi political organizations did not rise to national prominence until the first general elections in 1970, which the PPP dominated in (West) Pakistan. Sindhi political aspirations are expressed primarily through the PPP, which has opted for conventional electoral politics and nonviolence. With continued Punjabi military rule and deeply flawed electoral politics at the local and national level (which returned in 2001 after being suspended), Sindhis, Mohajirs, Pashtuns, and Baluchis have formed a fragile coalition, demanding such things as a more equitable distribution of resources, more economic opportunities, and more legitimate democratic institutions and processes.

Resentment of being reduced to a minority by the influx of other ethnic groups in their home province underlies much political action of Sindhis (POLDIS03 = 3). Of particular importance to Sindhis is the ability to control immigration of other ethnic groups into the region and a more equal distribution of the country's resources (ECOGR203 = 1). They also resent the predominance of Punjabi and Pashtun (who dominate much of the military) political and military leaders (POLDIFX1 = 2; POLDIFX2 = 2; POLDIFX3 = 2), and demand greater participation in local and national politics insofar as elections are legitimate and continue (POLGR203 = 1; POLGR303 = 1). Sindhis have also had their voting rights somewhat restricted since the government failed to release the 1998 census figures and most likely has underestimated the population of the Sindh province (POLIC501-03 = 1). Since many Sindhis are employed in agricultural production, the equal distribution of the Indus waters (which they argue have been inordinately used to the advantage of Punjab) is also a primary political issue (ECOGR503 = 1). The drought that began in 1997 has made water issues potentially explosive. Sindhis have also protested in 2003 against plans for the building of the Thal Canal and Kalabagh Dam because they threaten the environmental, cultural and economic stability of the Sindh Province. Sindhis compete for land in the province, and members of the PPP have demanded that the land irrigated by Chotiari Dam should be given to local farmers, and not retired army officials like they have been in the past. The leaders of the PPP prefer autonomy with widespread powers for the Sindh province. More radical Sindhi groups, including the Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz and the Sindh National Party, emerged in the 1980s, agitating for Sindh independence.

While many Sindhis are middle class (which has provided much of the political base for the PPP), most are rural poor. Lack of adequate income, development and government services for the rural poor has led to a low level of malnourishment (DMFOOD01-03 = 1). In recent years, economic discrimination against Sindhis has worsened, particularly in the industrial sector and government employment (ECDIS03 = 3). Sindhis have demanded the enactment of laws to protect the rights of the Sindhi workers (ECOGR403 = 2). They encounter no significant cultural restrictions, although Sindhi-language schools have faced substantial societal discrimination (CULPO302-03 = 1). The promotion of Sindhi language in schools and universities is very important. While intercommunal violence between Mohajirs (as represented by the MQM) and Sindhis led to the death of thousands during the 1980s and early 1990s, peaking in 1995, there have been no instances of violence since 2001. The primary demographic stress suffered by the Sindhis is the continuing immigration into their region by other groups. Sindhis have also been disproportionately affected by the drought that hit the region in 1997 and has continued into 2003.

References

1. "1457 Agitational Activities took place in Sindh during last five months," The Pakistan Newswire, June 11, 2002. http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/. Date accessed: 6/20/2004.

2. Amin, Tahir, "Pakistan in 1993," Asian Survey, Vol. XXXIV, No. 2, February 1994.

3. The Far East and Australasia 1994.

4. Far Eastern Economic Review, 1994.

5. Keesings Record of World Events, 1990-94.

6. Lexis/Nexis: Reuters, Middle East Intelligent Bulletin, BBC Monitoring International Reports, Xinhua General News Service, Agence France Presse, Deutsche Presse-Agentur, and others 2001 to 2003.

7. Phase I, Minorities At Risk, overview compiled by Monty G. Marshall, 07/89.

8. U.S. Department of State Human Rights Reports, 2001-2003.

9. Ziring, Lawrence, "Benazir Bhutto: A Political Portrait", Asian Affairs, Vol. 18, No. 3, Fall 1993.