Nations in Transit 2009 - Belarus

by Vitali Silitski

Capital: Minsk
Population: 9.7 million
GNI/capita: US$10,750

The data above was provided by The World Bank, World Bank Indicators 2009.

Nations in Transit Ratings and Averaged Scores

* Starting with the 2005 edition, Freedom House introduced separate analysis and ratings for national democratic governance and local democratic governance to provide readers with more detailed and nuanced analysis of these two important subjects.

NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the author(s) of this report. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s). The ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The Democracy Score is an average of ratings for the categories tracked in a given year.

Executive Summary

Following a brief period of relative democracy after gaining independence in 1991, the Republic of Belarus moved toward a form of post-Soviet authoritarianism with the election of Alyaksandr Lukashenka as president. Chosen in 1994 on a populist platform, he quickly set out to reverse democratic changes, consolidate power in the hands of the president, suppress the opposition, destroy independent media, manipulate the electoral process, and reestablish pervasive controls on daily life. By 1996, he had established a firm political grip over the country. The relative success of Lukashenka's economic policy – which was based on heavy subsidies of raw materials by Russia – enabled a degree of social cohesion and stability that forestalled any effective opposition. Lukashenka's prophylactic measures to combat the tide of colored revolutions that swept the former USSR in the mid-2000s ensured his smooth reelection in 2001 and 2006. In 2004, a constitutional referendum removed any term limits and effectively sanctioned his perpetual rule.

This once impregnable position began to slowly erode following the Belarus-Russia gas conflict of 2006-2007, when rising energy prices from Moscow forced Lukashenka to search for new solutions to the long-term goal of infinite political survival. Hence, the Belarusian authorities authorized a modest economic reform program that included tax reform, deregulation of certain sectors of the economy, cessation of social privileges, some privatization, and the active wooing of foreign direct investment. New economic policies also dictated certain shifts in the geopolitical orientation of the capital, Minsk, as Lukashenka could no longer count on Moscow's unwavering support. Thus, the authorities made attempts to normalize relations with the West and engage in dialogue with the European Union (EU) and the United States. Nevertheless, Lukashenka made it clear that this dialogue did not mean he would change his domestic policies or authorize political liberalization. Effectively, he offered some illusion of geopolitical balancing between the West and Russia in exchange for tolerance of his regime by the West. At the same time, Lukashenka's major foreign policy objective remained securing Russia's support, using ties with the West as a blackmailing tool to secure economic privileges and political patronage from the Kremlin under the threat of "going West."

The release of most political prisoners in February 2008 led to a dialogue with the EU on thawing relations, even though the releases were followed by a new round of political repression. Toward the United States, however, the government engaged in a diplomatic war over sanctions that had been introduced against the oil and chemical concern Belneftekhim, leading to the departure of the U.S. ambassador and most embassy staff. The parliamentary elections in September 2008 were set forth by both the EU and the United States as a benchmark for normalizing relations with Minsk. Although no changes were made in the government's manipulation of the vote and no opposition members were elected, the EU decided to suspend visa sanctions against the head of the Central Election Commission and all but six members of the regime who were implicated in the kidnapping of an opposition leader in 1999. The political bargaining between Lukashenka and the West in the run-up to the elections did result in the release of three political prisoners, including the most famous, Belarusian Social Democratic Party leader Alyaksandr Kazulin.

National Democratic Governance. The release of several political prisoners in February and the freeing of Alyaksandr Kazulin, Andrej Kim, and Sergei Parsyukevich in August 2008 brought the Belarusian authorities into compliance with one of 12 EU demands for internal political liberalization and raised hopes for further progress in softening the political climate. The removal of some of the most odious operatives of the regime's power bloc, such as Security Council head Viktar Sheiman and the notorious commander of the riot police, Dzmitry Paulichenka, also indicated that the regime was undergoing internal changes and abandoning hard-line practices in order to ensure its dealings with Europe and the United States. Nevertheless, the government took a stop-and-go approach, resuming harassment of opponents each time its relations with the West took a turn for the worse. Brutal dispersion of an opposition demonstration on March 25, attacks on independent journalists on March 27, harassment of opposition activists in the aftermath of the terrorist attack in Minsk on July 4, and, above all, failure by the authorities to respect democratic standards proved that democratization of Belarus remains a distant prospect. Nevertheless, the halfhearted liberalization of the political climate, release of political prisoners, and first steps by the authorities to engage in a dialogue with civil society all warrant an improvement of Belarus' rating for national democratic governance from 7.00 to 6.75.

Electoral Process. The parliamentary elections on September 30, 2008, were set by the EU (and the United States) as a benchmark for normalizing relations with Belarus and a pre-condition for further dialogue. Overall, according to the preliminary judgment of the observer mission sponsored by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the elections, in spite of improvements, "ultimately fell short of OSCE commitments for democratic elections." No opposition candidate was elected, and all 110 places in the House of Representatives were elected in the first round, and all pro-government. The election was marred by the harassment of leading opposition candidates and a virtual absence of election coverage in the most important state media. The authorities failed to change the routine for early voting, considered to be particularly vulnerable to fraud, and largely failed to grant election observers an opportunity to monitor the vote count. Although no progress was achieved in improving key election practices and ensuring meaningful political competition, an improvement in the overall political atmosphere during the 2008 election campaign warrants a slight improvement in the electoral process rating from 7.00 to 6.75.

Civil Society. Belarusian authorities abstained from enacting article 193-1 of the criminal code prosecuting unauthorized civil society activities. For the first time in years, representatives of the authorities engaged in open discussions with opposition and civil society activists. Nevertheless, the legal ground for repression remained fully in place, and the authorities continued to deny registration to the independent-minded civil society groups, political parties, etc. As a result of these small steps forward, Belarus' rating for civil society improves slightly from 6.50 to 6.25.

Independent Media. A new media law adopted by the Parliament in August 2008 effectively banned independent journalists from working on foreign broadcast media without official accreditation. Journalists working on EU-based radio and TV stations broadcasting in Belarus were subjected to continuous harassment, including the mass public attacks on March 27, 2008. On a positive note, the authorities abstained from enacting measures to control the Internet that were discussed throughout the year, returned some independent publications to the state distribution networks, and engaged in dialogue with representatives of independent media. Belarus' rating for independent media remains unchanged at 6.75.

Local Democratic Governance. Participants in protests against the construction of a chemical plant in Druzhny village near Minsk were harassed and threatened by local administrations. Local opposition activists faced firings and lockups in the run-up to key political events in the localities, such as elections or visits by top officials. Belarus' rating for local democratic governance remains unchanged at 6.75.

Judicial Framework and Independence. The prosecution of participants in the entrepreneurs' protests in January was conducted with multiple procedural violations and ignored proof of innocence by the court, according to human rights defenders. Opposition activists continued to be discriminated against at work and places of study. Police arbitrarily targeted opposition activists in the investigation of the terrorist attack on July 4, 2008, in the center of Minsk, although detainees were kept within the limits established by law and were not harassed in detention. Belarus' rating for judicial framework and independence remains unchanged at 6.75.

Corruption. Belarus continued to make considerable progress in removing excessive business regulations, according to a World Bank study. Nevertheless, problems of excessive regulation and discretionary decision-making power in the hands of state officials continue to affect the operations of the government and its relations with economic entities. President Lukashenka's revelations of corruption in top security bodies in November 2008 highlighted the extent to which the problem continues to plague the state in spite of a series of anticorruption crusades undertaken by Lukashenka throughout his rule. Owing to deregulation and improvements in business practices and governance, Belarus' rating for corruption improves from 6.25 to 6.00.

Outlook for 2009. Balancing between Russia and the West and dealing with the impact of the world financial crisis will underscore internal political dynamics in Belarus in 2009. Belarus-EU relations and the fate of suspended visa sanctions will depend on the ability of the EU to come up with a set of clear benchmarks before April 2009 on which political progress in Belarus will be measured. The slow Westward movement of the Lukashenka regime may be interrupted by fears that it could disorganize the internal coherence of the system, as well as by incentives the Kremlin may offer to keep Belarus firmly in its geopolitical orbit. Nevertheless, the regime is almost doomed to continue with economic liberalization, which will reframe Belarusian relations with the external world and trigger the erosion of the "old" Lukashenka regime grounded in a Soviet-style economy, populism, and pro-Russian orientation. It remains to be seen whether the system will reequilibrate into a "new," relatively liberalized, more market-based regime or whether economic and social tensions will open a space for genuine political change.