CrisisWatch: Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

May saw Cameroon's Anglophone conflict escalate and new clashes between Somaliland and Somalia's Puntland over disputed territory – in both cases, fighting could increase in June. Intercommunal violence rose in the Central African Republic and on both sides of the Mali-Niger border. In Burundi, President Nkurunziza pushed through changes to the constitution, entrenching his increasingly authoritarian rule. In Yemen, both sides intensified their campaigns and the Saudi-led coalition's offensive on Hodeida could mean more bloodshed in coming weeks. Israel killed over 60 Palestinian protesters in one day, and Israel-Iran tensions climbed in Syria. President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal could ramp up confrontation between the U.S. and Iran or their respective allies. Fighting intensified in Afghanistan, while Indonesia faced ISIS-linked terror attacks. In North East Asia, China and Japan established a crisis management hotline, tensions flared over the Taiwan Strait, and a planned summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un in June could advance denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

In Bangui, capital of the Central African Republic, a flare-up of fighting between Muslim and Christian gangs raised fears of a return to largescale intercommunal violence, while in the provinces militias continued to attack civilians, national forces and UN peacekeepers. With most voters endorsing the Burundian government's proposed constitutional changes in the 17 May referendum, President Nkurunziza could now extend his authoritarian rule until 2034 and upset the delicate power balance between Hutus and Tutsis. To prevent a slide back into conflict, we argued the African Union must press the government to open political space and end its inflammatory discourse.

A festering territorial dispute on the border between Somaliland and Puntland, a semi-autonomous region of Somalia, saw new fighting that left dozens dead and could worsen in June. Along the border between Mali and Niger, intercommunal attacks rose sharply pitting ethnic Dossaak and Tuareg against Fulani, the former taking part in counter-insurgency operations alongside French and national forces, the latter suspected of supporting jihadists.

Yemen's unrelenting war could be about to get much worse. The United Arab Emirates and their Yemeni allies launched an offensive to take Hodeida, the main port city in Huthi-controlled territory. Hodeida's invasion could compound the already acute humanitarian crisis and spark a wider conflict. To avert worse suffering, relevant actors should press Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to hold off, persuade the Huthis to stop missile attacks on Saudi Arabia, and support the new UN envoy to revive a political process that is more inclusive and realistic. Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal on 8 May upped the risk of confrontation between the U.S. and Iran or their respective allies in the coming weeks. To save the deal, the onus lies on European powers to preserve as many of the deal's benefits for Iran as possible.

Trump's exit was swiftly followed by a major escalation between Israel and Iran over the latter's role in Syria, with Israel claiming to have hit "dozens of Iranian military targets". As we had warned, the Israel-Palestine conflict escalated: on 14 May, its bloodiest day since the 2014 Gaza war, Israeli forces killed over 60 Palestinian protesters at the Gaza-Israel border, as tens of thousands demanded the right to return to their old homes in Israel and an end to the Gaza siege.

With fighting season in full swing in Afghanistan, the Taliban intensified attacks on rural centres and provincial capitals. In Indonesia, three families coordinated deadly terror attacks, involving the use of children to deploy bombs, on three churches and the police in and around Surabaya city. These attacks, the deadliest claimed by the Islamic State on Indonesian soil, left at least 25 dead.

Taiwan lost two more of its remaining diplomatic allies after both the Dominican Republic and Burkina Faso formally established diplomatic relations with China. Taiwan's government said that "outrageous" manoeuvres by China were intended to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty, and "crossed a bottom line".

On 9 May, after years of negotiations, Japan and China agreed to set up a maritime and aerial communication mechanism for crisis management, which will help reduce the risk that assertive or aggressive manoeuvres could spark a major diplomatic or military conflict. Crisis Group has long urged the two countries to reach this agreement, calling on them to manage disputes with professionalism and refrain from risky or intimidating behaviour.

The month saw a flurry of diplomatic activity to keep the U.S.-North Korea dialogue process moving forward ahead of the planned 12 June summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un on denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.