Sam Heller

@AbuJamajem

Senior Analyst, Non-State Armed Groups, . Looking at jihadism, one eye still on Syria. Jamajem means ☠️☠️☠️. Contact:

Beirut, Lebanon
crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/peo…
Joined September 2011
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Jun 20

    Our latest at : On the now-endangered “de-escalation” covering Syria’s southwest, and what can be done to avert its bloody military end:

    1 reply . 38 retweets 46 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    2 hours ago

    Important. Jordan and Israel are increasingly likely to face thousands of Syrians who fear a Ghouta-like bloodbath, standing at their respective fences and asking for shelter. Some would be Syrians who recieved aid from both countries during the last few years.

    Escalation in military activity in and southern has led to thousand to be displaced, some 6000 people registered though the number of IDPs is likely to be higher
    2 replies . 12 retweets 11 likes
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  3. 3 hours ago

    .’s latest for covers our new report on the de-escalation agreement in Syria’s southwest; adds new reporting, including latest message from U.S. Embassy Amman to southern rebels, appealing for “restraint.” (ع)

    4 retweets 6 likes
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  4. 3 hours ago

    مقال جديد لـ يتناول به وضع الجنوب السوري وينقل مضامين تقريرنا الأخير بـ حول اتفاق خفض التصعيد وإمكانية الحفاظ عليه:

    2 retweets 3 likes
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  5. 3 hours ago

    SANA: Syrian military advances in the Lajah.

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  6. Retweeted
    12 hours ago

    Will Washington help to spare civilian life in Syria's southwest, promoting the interests of Jordan and Israel, two close allies?

    1 reply . 4 retweets 2 likes
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  7. Retweeted
    6 hours ago

    ’s regime is turning southward. A regime offensive could: ➣ Destabilise ➣ Take a terrible civilian toll ➣ Trigger wider conflict between and Read report for what should be done ☟

    13 retweets 4 likes
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  8. Retweeted
    14 hours ago

    Thread on southern de-escalation zone in

    1. Some notes on the logic of the original de-escalation agreement covering Syria's southwest and the recommendations in 's latest ():
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    1 reply . 1 retweet 1 like
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  9. Retweeted
    15 hours ago

    Escalation in military activity in and southern has led to thousand to be displaced, some 6000 people registered though the number of IDPs is likely to be higher

    5 replies . 60 retweets 38 likes
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  10. Retweeted
    16 hours ago

    [Thread] Earlier this week, said that 100 European companies are planning to discuss doing business in Iran. Here’s why this matters.

    1 reply . 37 retweets 35 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    Jun 20

    The war in may be winding down but it's not over Our report describes risks posed by looming regime offensive in the southwest and how these can and should be mitigated by a deal involving the U.S., Russia and regional parties

    NEW REPORT | Keeping the Calm in Southern Syria
    6 retweets 7 likes
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  12. Retweeted
    18 hours ago

    A Syrian military offensive on the southwest now seems imminent. But Washington might be able to do something about it.

    6 retweets 3 likes
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  13. Retweeted
    Jun 21

    Because south west Syria, where Assad already masses forces, has major regional implications, both for Jordan and for the Israel-Iran conflict, all sides may gain from addressing its future via negotiations rather than military force. Our new report shows why and how.

    NEW REPORT | Keeping the Calm in Southern Syria
    5 retweets 8 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    18 hours ago

    In conversations with residents of southern Syria, many told me that if Israel does not intervene to stop the regime, they at least expect it to let refugees in. Thousands are reaching the areas abutting the fence on the Golan.

    1 reply . 24 retweets 16 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    18 hours ago

    . conflict alert: The fate of hangs in the balance as -backed forces launch a battle to expel rebels. World must act fast to avert catastrophe through a UN-mediated solution that safeguards all sides’ interests.

    28 retweets 16 likes
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  16. 19 hours ago

    9. There is no international constituency for unilaterally imposing a no-fly zone over the south and escalating opposite Russia, or for supplying rebels with the quantity and quality of weapons they would need to defend themselves. It doesn't exist, it's not real.

    1 reply . 1 retweet 2 likes
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  17. 19 hours ago

    8. Because without a deal, Damascus likely also gets what it wants, through military means. It's an end that is sub-optimal for Damascus and its partners; worse for U.S. and its regional allies; and much, much worse for southerners, who will die and see their communities torn up.

    1 reply . 1 like
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  18. 19 hours ago

    7. The negotiated alternative we're pushing is based on existing, real channels and frameworks and is preferable – at least "better," if not necessarily "good" – for all sides. And it's something that, we think, could be worthwhile for Damascus and its allies, which matters.

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  19. 19 hours ago

    6. But thanks in part to a turn in U.S. policy late last year, the de-escalation agreement failed to develop further into something that might have held Damascus's interest. After that, it was just a matter of time for Damascus to work down the list of remaining rebel-held areas.

    1 reply .
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  20. 19 hours ago

    5. The de-escalation, as conceived, had something for all sides – including Damascus, which wasn't at the negotiating table but whose interests were represented by its Russian ally.

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  21. 19 hours ago

    4. This mode of thinking – that a ceasefire and an agreement can only be something "enforced" on Damascus, or by which Damascus is "punished" – is old, limited and unworkable.

    1 reply . 2 likes
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