People walk in the main market of Diffa, Niger, March 23, 2015. (Photo by Joe Penney/Reuters)

Considering the recent humanitarian crisis and the increased displacement in the region, the Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping (VAM) unit of the WFP Regional Bureau for West Africa, in collaboration with ACF and other partners, launched a regional market assessment around the Lake Chad basin. The assessment was conducted in four countries in the surrounding zones around the Lake: Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon. In Niger over a period of 10 days, WFP, Government and partners (SIMA, IRC, Save the Children, ACF, and OXFAM) collected market information with a total of 158 traders in 23 markets were interviewed.

Cereal supply dropped between Nigeria to Niger
Niger’s structural dependence on Nigerian markets for grain supply remains a bottleneck for the Diffa region in 2016. The harvest in Nigeria is generally considered “good” by the interviewed ac-tors. With the closing of Damassak market in Nigeria, the incoming grain flows are further West, via the axis: Gashuwa-Geidem-MainéSoroa. Transactions have decreased following security measures (closure of border points for all-terrain trucks) in the southwestern strip of the region, to minimize the risk of boko haram attacks.

According to traders interviewed, the change in supply routes has caused transports cost to increase. The axis of Kablewa has not been operational since the recent explosion of a mine on a military vehicle, limiting the cereal flow between the two countries. In Bosso, grain supply level has decreased due to low demand, particularly after the recent internal displacement of populations towards Yebi town. Cereal buffer stocks of wholesalers in Guigmi, Kablewa, Bosso, and Kindjandi on the central market of Diffa has helped to partially stabilize price levels. Cereal supply is steadily increasing in Diffa market (800 tonnes per week) and in Mainé Soroa, due to ongoing food assistance interventions resulting from increased presence of refugees and IDPs. Simultaneously, a constant decline in exports of animals, peppers, and fish towards Nigeria is affecting overall commercial activities. Live-stock flows around the Lake are also affected from the ongoing conflicts.

Limited price increases observed in Maine and Guigmi
Demand and cereal prices are increasing between Mainé and Guigmi. However, in the southwest part (Djajéri-Goudoumaria-Kilakam-Bouti), a general price stability was noted. The observed increase in demand and prices is attributed to seasonality, increased presence of displaced people, and cash distributions. 37% of retailers say they had fewer customers in January 2016 compared to January 2015, while 31% believe the opposite is true. With constant arrival of IDPs and refugees, the creation of circumstantial markets is on the rise. For example, Yebi market is now considered to be larger than the market in Bosso.

In a number of markets, many IDPs are becoming merchants. For example, in Bosso, most retailers are refugees (approximately 70 percent) and in Yebi, all women involved in the grain retail business are refugees.

40 percent of interviewed transporters indicate to have “suspended their activities”
A first review of responses suggests that 41 percent of carriers say they opted to “suspend their activity” due to insecurity. 33 percent of interviewed transporters used different trading routes. Similarly, 26 percent of interviewed traders say they have resorted to unusual strategies to cope with rising prices and supply problems.

Terms of Trade between Goat and Millet remain volatile
Other livelihoods are suffering as well, especially for pastoralists who have to sell goats to buy millet and are facing erratic trade conditions with constant variation in cattle value.

Cereal price increases will be observed in the coming months, while supply continues to decrease
Increased seasonal demand, reinforced by the presence of dis-placed people and monetized interventions, will be observed in the coming weeks mainly in Mainé, Diffa and Bosso N'guigmi. Almost half of the interviewed traders think that demand will increase in the coming six months. At the same time, 21% of traders believe supply will decrease during the same period.
WFP/ March 2016