Azerbaijan: Treatment of ethnic Russians in Azerbaijan (1998-2002)

According to the CIA World Fact Book, 90 per cent of Azerbaijan's population of 7,771,092 (July 2001 estimate), is Azeri (CIA World Fact Book 24 Jan. 2002). Based on 1998 estimates, the Russian minority accounts for between 1.8 and 2.5 per cent of the population or 140,000-190,000 persons (Ekspress 12 July 2001; CIA 24 Jan. 2002; CIDCM 13 Sept. 2001; ITAR-TASS 9 Jan. 2001). For information concerning Azerbaijani nationalism in general and its effect on other minority groups, please see AZE38592 of 15 March 2002.

An RFE/RL Newsline report, quoting Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes that the Russian population of Azerbaijan dropped from 392,300 in 1989 to an estimated 141,700 in 1999 (8 Aug. 2001). According to the Moscow News, instability resulting from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, especially between 1991 and 1995, induced a "Russian exodus" which accounted for much of this population decrease (18 Apr. 2001). After 1996, out-migration slowed when stability was restored, according to the Moscow Times "following power centralization ... as well as consistent improvement of macroeconomic indicators ... " (ibid). Dr. Aliaga Mamedov, Head of the Department for Applied Ethnology at the Azerbaijani Academy of Sciences wrote that "Russians have been leaving Azerbaijan for mainly economic reasons as the standard of living in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other major Russian cities is better than in Azerbaijan. However, the appeal of returning to the historic homeland is of no small importance" (Central Asia and the Caucasus 2000).

The Moscow News noted that there are "no special state programs to support ethnic minorties" even though Azerbaijan's constitution stresses equality (18 Apr. 2001). According to the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), based at the University of Maryland,

[d]uring the Soviet period, Russians (as well as Jews, Armenians and other Slavs) enjoyed an advantaged position in Azerbaijan. Armenians and Russians occupied the key industrial and financial positions in Azerbaijan and considerable resentment was generated towards both groups as a result. Ethnic Azeris in Azerbaijan quickly became an economically disadvantaged majority group. Azeris have resented the policies of russification and imperial control which they claim have damaged Azeri culture. ... Today the Russians in Azerbaijan share many traits with Russian minorities in other post-Soviet states: they are clustered predominantly in urban areas; they are not highly organized around their ethnicity; and they have experienced neither communal conflict nor any significant political discrimination since Azerbaijan attained independence. They remain an economically, and to some extent a socially, advantaged group (13 Sept. 2001).

The U.S. Congressional Research Service noted that " Russia has voiced concerns about the safety of ethnic Russians in Azerbaijan and Georgia" (3 Dec. 2001) and according to Dr. Mamedov refers to "unconfirmed reports that Russians were being pressured and persecuted ... " (Central Asia and the Caucasus 2000). He noted a "heavy constraint on the use of the Russian language and increasing psychological uneasiness among the Russian ethnic group" (ibid.). However, the 1999 UNHCR Background Paper on Azerbaijan, citing the 1997 World Directory of Minorities, noted Russians were "not widely discriminated against in Azerbaijan" (12). While Country Reports 1998 stated that there were "credible reports that ethnic Russians experience societal discrimination" (1999), this statement was removed from Country Reports 1999 and has not reappeared in subsequent editions.

In the assessment of Dr. Mamedov,

The importance of the "Russian factor" in the political life of Azerbaijan has also been determined by the considerable role that Russians continue to play in the country's economic and social life. By far most of the Russians here are urban dwellers. Most of them are qualified workers like engineers. Some of them are employed at state, scientific and educational institutions and many have degrees. ... But the presence of a numerous Russian population is also a major foreign policy issue for Azerbaijan. ... [They are] "a serious factor that will for a long time to come influence the political situation within the boundaries of the former U.S.S.R." (Central Asia and the Caucasus 2000).

The CIDCM risk assessment for Russian minorities in Azerbaijan follows.

Russians in Azerbaijan are very unlikely to take collective political action against the Baku government. Their group identity is weak, they have few collective grievances, little political organization, and no history of collective political action. Nor have they experienced political discrimination or government repression. But their status may change as a result of geopolitical contests in the region. In particular, it is possible that Azeris' resentment of Russians may lead to future discrimination against them. There are two possible sources of increased resentment. First, the Aliyev regime is undemocratic and may look for scapegoats to deflect popular anger about the lack of public benefits from Baku's growing oil wealth. Second, in the late 1990s Azeri elite and public opinion was increasingly hostile to Russia for seeming to taking Armenia's side in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which nominally remains part of Azerbaijan.

If warfare breaks out again over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, which seems quite possible (perhaps even likely), the status of ethnic Russians may be adversely affected. Significantly, Baku seems to be losing interest in Russia's diplomacy after Moscow weakened its support for the peace process at the "Denver Summit" where the leaders of Russia, the United States, and France discussed the issue. Azerbaijan has begun to look for new allies. In 1999 Azeri officials supported U.S. proposals for constructing pipelines for the transport of Caspian oil through Georgia and Turkey instead of Russia, a position that infuriated Moscow. In the same year the Baku government also offered to host the first American military base on former Soviet territory.

In general, however, Russia's diplomacy in the Southern Caucasus has been effective in Baku over the last decade. The ultimate guarantor of the safety of the Russians in Azerbaijan, as well as in other post-Soviet states, is that Russian military presence just hours away. Moscow's concern for its kindred minorities in the "near abroad" has been high, and as long as it remains so, there is little chance of serious mistreatment by the Aliyev government of its Russian minority (13 Sept. 2001).

This Response was prepared after researching publicly accessible information currently available to the Research Directorate within time constraints. This Response is not, and does not purport to be, conclusive as to the merit of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. Please find below the list of additional sources consulted in researching this Information Request.

References

Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM). 17 January 2002. "Tracking Ethnopolitical Conflict Worldwide." [Accessed 28 Feb. 2002]

The CIDCM was founded in 1981 it "has acted as a forum for the expression of a broad range of views about the transition from war to peace. ... It now houses two major international databases: the Global Event-Data System (GEDS) and the Minorities at Risk Project" (CIDCM 1999). Among recent publications by CIDCM staff are T.R. Gurr, et al. "Peace and Conflict 2001 : A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy"; Ted Robert Gurr and Barbara Harff, "Ethnic Conflict In World Politics" (1994).

The Minorities at Risk project "is an independent, university-based research project that monitors and analyzes the status and conflicts of politically-active communal groups in countries with a population of at least 500,000. The project is designed to provide information in standardized form that will contribute to the understanding and peaceful accommodation of conflicts involving communal groups" (CIDCM 17 Jan. 2002)

_____. 13 September 2001. Michael L. Haxton, Lyubov Mincheva and Christopher Fettweis. "The Russians of Azerbaijan." [Accessed 27 Feb. 2002]

_____. 1999. "Mission." [28 Feb. 2002]

Central Asia and the Caucasus. 2000. No. 1. Aliaga Mamedov. "Aspects of the Contemporary Ethnic Situation in Azerbaijan." [Accessed 4 Mar. 2002]

CIA World Factbook. 24 January 2002. "Azerbaijan" [Accessed 26 Feb. 2002]

Congressional Research Service (CRS). 3 December 2001. Jim Nichol and Julie Kim. "Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia: Political Developments and Imlications for U.S. Interests." [Accessed 1 Mar. 2002]

Country Reports on Human Rights Practices 1998. 1999. United States Department of State, Washington DC." [Accessed 12 Mar. 2002]

Ekspress [Baku, in Azeri]. 12 July 2001. "At Present 90.6 Per Cent of Azerbaijan's Population are Azeris." (BBC Worldwide Monitoring 12 July 2001) (MINELREL-L Archives) [Accessed 28 Feb. 2002]

ITAR-TASS News Agency. 9 January 2001. Sevindzh Abdullayeva and Viktor Shulman. "Russians active in Political and Economic Life of Azerbaijan." [NEXIS]

Moscow News. 18 April 2001. Vladimir Mishin. "Ethnic Russians Leaving Azerbaijan. (MINELREL-L Archives) [Accessed 28 Feb. 2002]

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). 8 August 2001. Vol. 5, No. 149. Paul Goble. "Russian Presence in Former Republics Declines."

UNHCR. October 1999. "Background Paper on Refugees and Asylum Seekers From Azerbaijan." [Accessed 1 Mar. 2002].

Additional Sources Consulted

Amnesty International

Azerbaijan International

CIA

Council of Europe

Country Reports 1999-2001

Eurasia.net

Far Eastern Economic Review

Google.com

Human Rights Center of Azerbaijan

Human Rights Watch

Johnson's Russia List

Minority Electronic Resources

NIS Observed

Open Society Institute

Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe

RFE/RL

RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

Union of Councils for Soviet Jewry

Yahoo.com