Assessment for Russians in Estonia

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

There is little risk of rebellion by ethnic Russians in Estonia. Although the group has exhibited substantial and persistent levels of protest in past, protest levels have been declining. Ethnic Russians are also somewhat geographically concentrated. The role of Russia also must be taken into consideration as a potential irritant in the Estonian- Russian relations. However, potential for conflict has declined significantly over the recent years. While at the beginning of the 1990s, Russia actively negotiated on behalf of the Russian minorities, it has almost ceased to do so at present.

On the other hand, there are important signs of hope for improvements in the group's status. These include positive developments in both the Estonian government and economy as well as in the group's attitudes and strategies. Changes in the controversial citizenship law and the subsequent increase in Russian suffrage and political representation present one positive sign that seems to lower the likelihood of strife. In addition, Estonia's economic transition continues to proceed relatively smoothly, alleviating some of the economic burden carried by the Russian minority. While the group continues to be disadvantaged compared to the Estonian population, Russians are still better off where they are than are their counterparts in most of the struggling post-Soviet economies. Furthermore, over the past decade, the Russian minority leadership in Estonia has been reluctant to use any strategy other than negotiation and public protest. With more access to the political process afforded to the Russian minority, conventional political parties will most likely continue to be the main vehicle for achieving group goals. In addition, the Russian leadership (and Russian population itself) does not seem to be homogeneous enough to create strong political organizations. The lack of cohesive organization and resources makes the possibility of organized ethnic strife unlikely.

While the likelihood of rebellion is small, the likelihood of protest by the group remains significant. Significant political, economic, and cultural restrictions still exist, which place the Russian minority in a disadvantaged position. Due to the restrictive citizenship law, the political realm remains out of reach for many Russians. For example, in 1995, the Russian's share of eligible voters was only 10%. In the economic realm, the citizenship law restricts Russians from owning land, and language

restrictions place significant employment barriers to those Russians who are not proficient in Estonian.

Analytic Summary

The Russian minority in Estonia resides primarily in two areas of the country — the capital city Talinn and the border cities of Narva and Sillamae (REGIONAL = 1, GROUPCON = 2). Although the group is distinct in terms of culture, language, and religion (ETHNOG = 1; LANG = 1; RELIGS1 = 3; ETHDIFXX = 3), the problem with the Russian minority in Estonia is a relatively new one, dating back to the early 1990s when, after 50 years of Russian domination, Estonia declared its sovereignty and became independent.

The first major influx of ethnic Russians into Estonia took place under the Soviet policy of population intermixing (TRADITN = 5). While travel outside of the Soviet Union was restricted, the people of the USSR were free to relocate within the country. Due to its relative economic prosperity, Estonia (together with the other Baltic states of Latvia and Lithuania) was a popular destination for people from the rest of the Soviet Union. The ethnic composition of Estonia's previously small and homogeneous population was drastically altered as a result. Russians were the group that immigrated in the greatest numbers to the region.

Under the Soviet rule, the Russian minorities were not under any real or perceived threat (ATRISK2 = 0). They were allowed to speak Russian to conduct official business and their children could attend Russian-speaking schools. In addition, the Soviet military was dominated by Russians, and due to the geographic position of the Baltic states, there was always a large military presence in the area. Despite their migration into the Baltics, the Russian population did not assimilate into the local society. The situation for the Russian minority changed dramatically after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent declaration of Estonia's independence in 1991. With the adoption of the new Estonian constitution, many Russians who lived their entire lives in Estonia had overnight become outsiders (ATRISK1 = 1).

The group's current disadvantages are directly linked to the post-independence legislation adopted by the Estonian government. Specifically, the widely criticized Estonian citizenship law requires evidence of pre-World War II historical roots in Estonia to be considered a citizen of Estonia. Those that do not fulfill this requirement must pass a language exam and demonstrate sufficient knowledge of Estonian history. Language restrictions also adversely affect group's educational and occupational opportunities (ECDIS03 = 1). While the Russians are permitted to participate in local elections, there are significant legal restrictions in terms of voting and organizing at the national level and attainment of high political office for non-citizens. Once they achieve citizenship however, there are no restrictions (POLDIS03= 4). In addition, there are limited restrictions in recruiting Russian military and police and attaining access to civil service. Although the citizenship law has been amended due to an extensive pressure by Russia and various European institutions, the problem has not been solved to the full satisfaction of the Russian minority.

Consequently, elimination of the discriminating citizenship and language requirements has been at the core of Russian minority's demands since the early 1990s. These grievances have been articulated by a number of conventional political parties, including the Estonian United People's Party, the Assembly of Russian speakers, the Russian Community, the Russian Party of Estonia, and the Russian Unity Party, among others. So far, the primary forms of group resistance have been conventional protest and political rallies (PROT99 = 2; PROT00-03 = 1). There has been no evidence of rebellion (REBEL99-03 = 0).

Russians in Estonia have also received outside ideological and humanitarian assistance from the Russian Federation. Various international non-governmental and intergovernmental organizations, including the UN, the OSCE, the EU, the CE, etc., have also repeatedly expressed their public concern regarding the treatment of the Russian minority.

References

Lexis-Nexis news reports, 1990-2003.