Assessment for Crimean Tatars in Ukraine

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Crimean Tatars exhibit a moderate risk for violent rebellion in the foreseeable future. Protest, present since the 1960s, has remained consistent over the past decade (PROT98X = 3; PROT99-00 = 4; PROT01-03 = 3). Crimean Tatars are territorially concentrated (GROUPCON = 3) and have a strong sense of group identity (COHESX9 = 5). They also exhibit organizational cohesion (GOJPA03 = 2), as represented by the dominance of the Majilis in voicing Crimean Tatar demands. There are also factors, however, moderating the risks of rebellion. The Ukrainian regime has not experienced the instability of other post-Soviet regimes in the region and has not employed significant repression against the Crimean Tatars (REP0101-03 = 1; REP1801-03 = 1). The central government has also on occasion intervened in Crimean regional politics (where Crimean Russians dominate) in favor of the Crimean Tatars.

Crimean Tatar protest will likely remain at fairly high levels. Key grievances are not being addressed by the regional or central government, including both political and economic issues. While most returnees from Central Asia have now received citizenship, contention remains concerning issues such as provision of land, housing and jobs. The political contest between Crimean Russians and Crimean Tatars over who controls the governance of the peninsula is also likely to continue over the coming years.

Analytic Summary

The ancestors of today's Crimean Tatars began settling the northern plains of the peninsula in the mid-13th century. These settlers were Seljuk and Orguz Turkish clans who remained behind after the Mongol invasions of the steppes. The Crimea formed an independent state for the first time in the 1440s under Haci Giray Khan. Shortly after this (in the 1470s), the Ottomans invaded and brought the peninsula into the Ottoman domain. The sultans set Crimea up as an autonomous state under the suzerainty of the Ottoman Empire; the amount of autonomy exercised by the Crimean Tatars during this period is a matter of debate. Throughout the 10th to 17th centuries, Crimean Tatars raided Polish, Ukrainian, and Russian towns.

By the end of the 17th century, Russia had come to the forefront of major powers in the region and began to challenge the Ottomans for control of the Black Sea region. In the spring of 1771, Russia began what would end up being a long, bloody path to the eventual annexation of Crimea in 1783. From 1772 to 1783 (when Russian conquest of the peninsula was completed), Crimea was again an independent state, though dependent on a major power for its security (AUTLOST = 3).

This period saw the beginnings of Russian and non-Russian Slavic colonization of the peninsula. While the colonization was small-scale, soon the population balance would begin to shift significantly due to other forces. From 1783 to 1854, there were small-scale Tatar emigrations to parts of the Ottoman Empire. However, following the Crimean War of 1854-1855, Russian policy was designed to encourage Tatars to leave. The Crimean Tatars were accused of having collaborated with the English and French during the war. Fear of Russian anger over their loss in the war and economic deprivation caused a major exodus of Tatars. The pre-war population of Tatars was estimated at 150,000; by 1860 there are estimated to have been fewer than 100,000 remaining (Fisher 1978). At that point they were still a majority, and the 1926 census counts 186,024 persons speaking the Tatar language (Allworth 1988). In 1944, Stalin expelled Crimean Tatar populations to Central Asia, as punishment for supposed Tatar collaboration with the Germans. These expulsions decimated Tatar populations; the 1989 census counted only 89,600 Tatars in the Ukraine.

Prior to the deportation, Crimean Tatars primarily resided in the southern resort areas and in urban centers. Small-scale resettlement began after 1967, but because of the high demand on the resort areas of the Crimea, the Crimean Tatars were forced to settle mainly in the steppe regions. Crimean Tatar protests in the USSR also began in this period, as they began agitating for the right to return to the Crimea (PROT60X = 1; PROT65X = 3). Crimean Tatar protests continued throughout the duration of Soviet rule (PROT70X, PROT80X = 2; PROT85X = 3) and have remained at a consistent level since Ukrainian independence (PROT 90X, PROT98X = 3; PROT99-00 = 4; PROT01-03 = 3).

The return of the Crimean Tatars has created many problems. A massive influx of Crimean Tatars from Uzbekistan has led to an overcrowding of limited housing and greater pressure on formerly Tatar lands that are now occupied by other groups. Further, poor health relative to other groups in Ukraine continue to plague the Crimean Tatars (DMSICK00-03 = 2). The economic situation of Crimea and Ukraine has had difficulty supporting this influx, and sufficient funds have not been made available for effective resettlement. Political resistance remains against the idea of giving priority to Crimean Tatars over Ukrainians and Russians. However, the large influx of returnees has now slowed considerably, which may ease tensions to some degree (DMINFL00 = 3, DMINFL01 = 2, DMINFL02-03 = 1).

Ethnic Russians in Crimea have consistently raised concerns about the returning Crimean Tatars, objecting to privileges such as special access to housing or quotas for political representation. One result has been violence between the two groups. Promisingly, recent intercommunal conflict between these two groups has remained at the level of political agitation with no violence (GCC199-03 = 2).

The organization that primarily represents Crimean Tatar demands is Majilis, the self-styled parliament of the Crimean Tatars. In 1997-2000 the political activity of the Crimean Tatars significantly increased, including large-scale organized protest and building tent camps to advocate their demands (PROT99-00 = 4). However, during 2001-2003, while protests continued, they remained relatively small with participants numbering in the hundreds (PROT01-03 = 3); these protests primarily related to Tatar demands for land and territorial autonomy (AUTGR50-03 = 2).

In terms of grievances, the most comprehensive account comes from 1997 when Crimean Tatars presented a list of demands to President Kuchma that included: change of electoral laws; recognition of the Crimean Tatars as a population native to the peninsula; recognition of the Crimean Tatar language as one of the main languages in Crimea; reimbursement of the moral and material damage caused by the deportation; recognition of the Majlis as the official body of the Crimean Tatars; introduction of 30% quota of Tatar employment in all state bodies; and the establishment of national Crimean Tatar autonomy (POLGR203, POLGR303, POLGR503 = 1; ECOGR203 = 1). Crimean Tatar protests have led to the creation of the Council of Representatives of the Crimean Tatar people, which Majlis considers an important achievement.

In the long run, the situation of the Crimean Tatars in Ukraine will depend to a large degree on the economic situation in the country, so that economic funds can be freed up to better their living conditions without taking resources away from Russians and Ukrainians, and on the political leadership in Kiev and Simferopol.

References

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